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Prospect Central: Volume Twenty Four (2003)

By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  Back in May (Prospect Central: Volume Eight), I identified my “Top 10 Pitching Prospects” in all of baseball for this season.  This week I will look at the pitchers ranked 6-10 on that list, to see how they faired this season and how that has impacted their prospect status.  Next week, I will tackle pitchers 1-5 on the list.

10) JEROME WILLIAMS - SP

Organization: San Francisco Giants

Acquired: San Francisco’s supplemental 1st round pick (39th overall) in 1999 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 12-4-1981

I ranked Jerome Williams as my #10 pitching prospect back in May and said that I liked him quite a bit, but felt that his relatively low strikeout rates were a bit of concerning as far as his long-term future was concerned.

Williams began the year at Triple-A Fresno and made 10 starts, going 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA.  He gave up just 52 hits in 57 innings and walked only 16, but his strikeout rate of 6.3 per nine innings was once again sub par for a top pitching prospect.

Williams was called up to the Giants in late April and made his major league debut on April 26th, pitching four innings in a start against the Phillies, while allowing five runs.  The Giants stuck with him after that rough first outing and Williams lowered his ERA in each of his next eight starts.  I watched his complete-game against the Cardinals on July 7th and came away very impressed, not only with Williams’ “stuff,” but also with his remarkable composure and mound presence at the age of 21.

At the All-Star break, Williams was 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in nine starts.  His strikeout rate (5.9/9) and walk rate (4.0/9) were not very good however, and his success was due in large part to the fact that he did not surrender a home run in his first 58 innings – something that was simply not sustainable.  Since the break, Williams is 1-3 with a 4.41 ERA.  His strikeout and walk rates have improved over his first-half numbers, but he has started to allow some homers – eight in 49 innings to be exact.

Overall for the season, Williams is 6-4 with a 3.45 in 17 starts.  He has limited opponents to a .244 batting average and has been particularly tough on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .219 average and just one home run in 192 at bats.

The only downside that I can see for Williams’ rookie season is that his K rate is still not very good.  He has just 76 strikeouts in 107 innings, which works out to just 6.4 per nine innings pitched.  6.4/9 is about 5% worse than the National League average.  That’s obviously not a horrible rate and many pitchers have had very successful careers with K rates below league-average, but it is also not a great sign for future dominance.

Jerome Williams is having an excellent rookie season and looks headed for a very good major league career.  That said, despite his success this season, my opinion on his long-term future has not changed much since I last wrote about him in May.  As I said then: “I don’t see Williams as a true “ace” in the majors, simply because he won’t miss enough bats.  I do think he can be a very good #2 or #3 starter.”

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

9) JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP

Organization: Detroit Tigers

Acquired: Oakland’s 1st round pick (26th overall) in 2001 draft; traded to Detroit in three-way trade with Oakland and New York in 2002.

Throws: Right

DOB: 10-28-1982

At first glance, Jeremy Bonderman’s rookie season in the major leagues has been a terrible one.  While it doesn’t become a great one even if you look a little deeper, it does contain a few positive signs.

At just 20 years old, Bonderman made the jump from Single-A to the majors and found himself completely overmatched right off the bat.  He had a 15.63 ERA in his first two starts and a 6.58 ERA overall in April.

Bonderman bounced back after his initial struggles and posted a 4.43 ERA in 11 starts in May and June.  He had a 5.16 ERA in July, but that is heavily skewed because of a two-inning/seven-run start on July 21st against the Red Sox (who have the best offense in baseball).  Take that start out and he had a 2.57 ERA in July.  Overall, Bonderman had a 4.88 ERA in 18 first-half starts, which is quite good for a 20 year old with so little pro experience.

As the Tigers found themselves nearing (and passing) 100 losses, Bonderman began slumping.  He had a 6.68 ERA in August and gave up six runs in his only start this month.  Since the All-Star break, he has a 7.46 ERA in nine starts and his strikeout rate and strikeout/walk ratio have both gone down the tubes.

The Tigers have decided to pull him from the rotation, in part because he is getting close to 20 losses, but mostly because he has already thrown 148 innings this year.  Bonderman could still work out of the bullpen and may even get another start before the end of the year, but he won’t be in the regular rotation.

I think pulling him from the rotation is a smart move for the Tigers, and not because of how many losses he has.  Making the jump from Single-A to the majors is a huge one and it is important to remember that Bonderman is still just 20 years old.  Putting extra stress on his arm in the last month of a season in which the Tigers are going absolutely nowhere doesn’t make much sense, and it is also apparent that Bonderman had been tiring of late anyway.

As of right now, Bonderman has a 5.66 ERA in 27 starts, which is certainly not pretty.  He has shown flashes of being a very good pitcher however, and I certainly think his future is very bright.  I still think he would have been much better off by spending at least the first part of this season in the minor leagues, but his season has not been a disaster by any means, despite the awful record.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

8) JASON ARNOLD - SP

Organization: Toronto Blue Jays

Acquired: New York’s 2nd round pick in 2001 draft; traded to Oakland in three-way trade with New York and Detroit in 2002; traded to Toronto in four-way trade with Oakland, Cincinnati and Arizona in 2002.

Throws: Right

DOB: 5-2-1979

Jason Arnold began the season at Double-A New Haven and dominated, going 3-1 with a 1.53 ERA in six starts.  He held opponents to a .152 batting average and struck out 33 batters in 35 innings pitched.

He was quickly promoted to Triple-A Syracuse, where he struggled, relatively speaking, for most of the season.  Arnold made 20 Triple-A starts, pitching a total of 120.2 innings with a 4.33 ERA.  Certainly not horrible numbers by any means, but Arnold came into the season with a 20-6 minor league record and an ERA of 2.28.

Arnold’s Triple-A strikeout rate of 6.1 per nine innings was well below his K rates at previous stops.  That is probably the most concerning thing about his time in Triple-A this season.

Despite his struggles in Triple-A this season, I still think Jason Arnold in on-track to becoming a very good major league pitcher.  I would expect him to get serious consideration for a spot in Toronto’s rotation for next season and, at the latest, he should be anchoring the staff along with Roy Halladay by mid-2004.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

7) CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP

Organization: Seattle Mariners

Acquired: Seattle’s 5th round pick in 1999 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 10-25-1980

Prior to the season, Clint Nageotte was relatively unknown as a prospect but, as I said in May, he was “a personal favorite of mine.”  His incredible strikeout rates and devastating slider earned him my #7 overall ranking among pitching prospects.

Nageotte moved up from Single-A to Double-A this season and had a very good year.  He worked for much of the year on relying upon his awesome slider less and establishing his fastball in more situations, something that the Mariners feel he will need to be in the major leagues. 

Despite tinkering with his approach, Nageotte went 11-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 27 starts, and held batters to a .223 batting average.  And, of course, he once again had a very impressive strikeout rate of 9.2 per nine innings.  Continuing to be so successful while moving up from Single-A to Double-A is a huge step and Nageotte is no longer much of an unknown.

Nageotte finished third in the Texas League in ERA and led the league in strikeouts, with 157.  He has now led his league in strikeouts during each of his three full-seasons, and has 617 strikeouts in 521 career minor league innings, a rate of 10.7 per nine innings pitched.  His K rate of 9.2 per nine innings this season is quite a bit below his previous rates, which included 11.7/9 last season and 11.1/9 in 2001.  Still, 9.2/9 is certainly nothing to sneeze at.

Along with the league-leading strikeout total, Nageotte also walked the most batters in the league (67), and that remains his biggest weakness. That said, his walk rate of 3.9/9 IP is not horrendous for a young power-pitcher.

I suspect Nageotte will begin next season in Triple-A and, if he continues to pitch like he has over the last few seasons, he could see some action in Seattle before the end of the 2004 season.  He is now firmly entrenched as one of the top handful of pitching prospect in all of baseball.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

6) ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Organization: Atlanta Braves

Acquired: Atlanta’s 1st round pick (29th overall) in 2000 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 8-30-1981

After leading his leagues in strikeouts in 2001 and 2002, Adam Wainwright made the jump to Double-A this season and did quite well.  He made 27 starts for Double-A Greenville, with a 3.37 ERA and 10 wins.  That 3.37 ERA was good for 10th in the Southern League and, while he didn’t lead his league in strikeouts like he had in the last two seasons, Wainwright’s 128 Ks were good for sixth in the league this year.

Along with the 128 strikeouts and solid 7.7/9 IP strikeout rate, Wainwright also improved his control a great deal this year.  After walking 3.6 batters per nine innings last season, Wainwright lowered that all the way down to 2.2/9 IP this year.  His strikeout/walk ratio of 128/37 (3.45/1) was excellent and he also held opponents to a .241 batting average.

Atlanta’s major league pitching-staff is no longer as dominant or deep as it has been throughout much of the last decade, so there are some potential openings for young pitchers like Wainwright.

Normally I say that Wainwright looks likely to begin next year at Triple-A, but the Braves were aggressive with one of their young starting pitchers this season, giving Horacio Ramirez a spot in the rotation right out of Double-A.  Whether Wainwright gets a shot at a starting job from the outset next year or not, he has a ton of potential and will be an impact player for the Braves very soon.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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