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2003 Prospect Central: Volume Thirteen

By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at five players who recently made their major league debuts.

MATT KATA – 2B

Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks

Acquired: Arizona’s ninth round pick in 1999 draft.

Bats: Switch

DOB: 3-14-1978

Matt Kata is what I would call a “tweener.”  He’s not quite good enough defensively to play shortstop full-time in the major leagues and he’s probably not good enough offensively to be a good starting second baseman.  The Diamondbacks’ ninth-round pick in the 1999 draft, Kata was in the middle of the his third straight solid minor league season when he was called up to the big leagues to replace the injured Junior Spivey on Arizona’s roster.

Kata’s pro career started out slow.  He hit .261 and .255 without any power in his first two seasons, both at low Single-A South Bend.  Then he moved up to high Single-A Lancaster in 2001 and had a bit of a breakout season.  Kata hit .296 and smacked 10 homers in 494 at bats - one more homer than he hit in his first two seasons (and 839 at bats) combined.  He moved up to Double-A last season and his power continued to develop.  Kata hit .298 and hit 11 homers, 33 doubles and nine triples in 578 at bats – good for a .443 slugging percentage, his career-high.

Last year’s performance put him on the map with the Diamondbacks, who added him to the 40-man roster in the off-season, enabling his call-up this year.  Before the call-up, Kata was hitting .289 at Triple-A and was continuing to show decent power, with three homers, 13 doubles and five triples in 48 games.  His .448 slugging percentage at Triple-A was even slightly higher than the career-high .443 he established last year.

If he can handle playing shortstop occasionally in the major leagues, Matt Kata could be a very nice bench player/spot starter for a long time.  He switch-hits, will hit for a solid batting average, take a few walks and smack some doubles.  As an everyday player though, he might be stretched.  His performance at Double-A last year, translated to the major leagues, comes out to .271/.309/.390 and his performance at Triple-A so far this year translates to an almost-identical .262/.295/.391.  Those lines are both well below-average for a starting second baseman in the major leagues.

Kata doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for power, and a player who’s strength is almost entirely based on batting average in the minor leagues is going to have trouble at the major league level.  As a starting second baseman, he could be okay – decent defense, below-average offense.  More likely though, is that he’ll get some time as a pinch-hitter, utility-player type of guy, which is what he’s better suited for.

Gleeman long-term grade: C-

FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF

Organization: San Francisco Giants

Acquired: Signed by San Francisco as an un-drafted free agent from Dominican Republic in 1997.

Bats: Left

DOB: 3-9-1974

Just a few months ago, Deivis Santos was a 22 year old prospect in the Giants’ organization.  Recently though, it was learned that “Deivis” Santos is actually “Francisco” Santos and, more importantly, he was born in 1974 and not 1980.

Aging six years overnight can do infinitely more to damage a prospect’s status than any on-field struggles could ever do, and Santos went from a young player showing some offensive promise to a light-hitting first baseman/corner outfielder who is nearing 30 years old.  Perhaps thinking they might as well see what he can do before they find out he was actually born in 1940 or something, the Giants called him up last week to take the place of the injured Marvin Benard.

Knowing what we know now about his real age, Santos’ minor league career is quite interesting.  The Giants thought they signed him as a 17 year old out of the Dominican Republic in 1997, when, in fact, he was 23 years old.  Thinking he was 17, they put him in their rookie-level Dominican League team, where he played three straight seasons – his age 23, 24 and 25 seasons.  So, as a man in his mid-20s, some 5 or 6 years older than his competition, Santos hit .271, .281 and .236, showing almost zero power and zero plate discipline.

In 2000, at the age of “20” (really 26), the Giants promoted him to their rookie-level team in the Arizona League.  At 26 and playing against a bunch of high school-aged kids, Santos hit .372 in 43 at bats.

The reality now is that Francisco Santos is 29 years old and has a career minor league slugging percentage of .405, with much of that coming against players five or six years his junior.  In other words, he is no longer even remotely a prospect.

Benard is likely out for quite a while with his knee injury and I suspect the Giants will call one of their “real” prospects up from the minor leagues to take Benard’s place long-term.  Unless he goes Roy Hobbs on the National League in the next week, Santos’ major league career is going to be over very soon and his fantasy career should never start.

Gleeman long-term grade: C-

BO HART – 2B

Organization: St. Louis Cardinals

Acquired: St. Louis’ 33rd round pick in 1999 draft.

Bats: Right

DOB: 9-27-1976

St. Louis’ 33rd round pick in the 1999 draft, Bo Hart is a typical “organizational soldier” type of player.  He’s never going to be great and he doesn’t have the tools that get people excited, but he’s the type of player every organization has - a “scrapper” that works his butt off, sticks around in the minors and, every once in awhile, gets a shot at the majors.

Hart can play almost every defensive position passably, but second base is his best spot.  His season numbers from 2002 were down, but part of that comes from the broken hand he suffered mid-way through the season.  In 2001 and so far this season, Hart has hit for a good batting average and good doubles power.  He doesn’t take many walks and he actually strikes out a lot for a guy that doesn’t hit for power.  He has good speed, but not great.  In fact, most everything he does is “good, but not great.”

Hart is getting a look with the Cardinals because of Miguel Cairo’s broken hand and, so far, he’s taken advantage of his opportunity.  Through his first three games – playing second base and leading off – Hart has seven hits in 12 at bats, including two doubles and two triples.  He is hitting .583/.615/1.083.  It’s just three games and a dozen at bats, but it’s not a bad start for a guy that needs some breaks to go his way to make a career for himself. 

Stranger things can happen.  A few years ago the Cardinals had a similar, scrappy, organizational solider type named Joe McEwing and he had a hot first half in 1999, which carried him to a decent 1999 season.  He is currently in his 5th year as a semi-regular major league player (now with the Mets).  There is no reason Bo Hart can’t have Joe McEwing’s career, he just needs a few breaks along the way and a nice first few weeks would go a long way. 

Gleeman long-term grade: C-

 MARIO RAMOS – SP

Organization: Texas Rangers

Acquired: Oakland’s sixth round pick in 1999 draft; traded to Texas in 2002.

Throws: Left

DOB: 10-19-1977

Mario Ramos was a highly touted prospect in the Oakland system a couple years ago and one of the main players the Rangers got in the deal that sent Carlos Pena to the A’s.  His first season in the Rangers’ organization was a complete mess.

After striking out 7.75 batters per nine innings between Double-A and Triple-A in the Oakland system in 2001, Ramos’ K rate dropped all the way to 5.5 per nine innings last year.  His control also abandoned him and he walked nearly four batters per game.  And, after giving up just 12 homers in 174 innings in 2001, Ramos served up 20 long balls in only 122 innings last year.  All of that added up to a 7.40 ERA and one of the most disappointing seasons of any pitching prospect in baseball.

After his good 2001 season, Ramos was a “crafty lefty.”  After his disastrous season last year, he was a “soft-tosser.”  Those are both the same things really, but one means you throw under 90 MPH and your ERA is good, while the other means you throw under 90 MPH and it isn’t.  The Rangers demoted Ramos to Double-A this year and he was in the middle of a very nice season there when they called him up last week.

While at Double-A, Ramos had his K rate back up to almost his 2001 level, he had his walk rate down to an even better rate than 2001 and he was back to keeping the ball in the ballpark.  In 84 innings pitched he had a 3.32 ERA and a beautiful 66/17 K/BB ratio.

Ramos made his MLB debut on the 19th, against the team that traded him - the Oakland A’s - and he struggled.  He gave up four runs off of five hits (two of them homers) and four walks, and was yanked after just 3 2/3 innings.  The A’s went on to beat the Rangers 9-2 and Ramos got his first career loss. 

I think it was probably a little silly to think that Ramos was ready for the major leagues because he had 84 good Double-A innings this year, after being a complete disaster last season.  And, because of that, I am a little surprised the Rangers would be so aggressive with him.  Ramos seems like the type of player they would want to be patient with, taking their time to make sure he was ready, so that he wouldn’t revert to what made him struggle so much last season.

Keep an eye on his K rate, because I think it will tell the story of whether he doing the things that a “crafty” lefty does, the things that made him a good prospect back in 2001, or if he’s just another “soft-tossing” lefty.

Gleeman long-term grade: C+

JOSE VALVERDE – RP

Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks

Acquired: Signed by Arizona as un-drafted free agent out of Dominican Republic in 1997.

Throws: Right

DOB: 7-24-1979

With closer Matt Mantei once again on the disabled list, the Diamondbacks called up Jose Valverde from Triple-A and he has taken over the closer-duties without skipping a beat.  Valverde is 6/6 in save opportunities, has a 2.00 ERA in nine innings pitched, and has struck out 14 batters.  He recently pitched in four straight games, picking up back-to-back saves against the Astros on the 18th and 19th,  his first major league win against the Reds the next night and his sixth save of the year against Cincy on the 21st.

Valverde features an overpowering fastball that has been clocked as high as 99 or 100 MPH at times.  His secondary pitches are much less dominant and have been very slow developing.  Because his repertoire has essentially been all fastballs, all the time, Valverde has been exclusively a reliever since signing with Arizona back in 1997.  In 234 career minor league innings prior to this season, Valverde struck out 325 batters.  He also walked 126, including 50 in just 89 innings in 2001/2002.

Before being called up, Valverde was pitching well at Triple-A Tucson.  He had a 3.10 ERA in 29 innings pitched, along with 26 strikeouts...and 14 walks.  Anyone with a fastball as good as Jose Valverde’s is potentially a special pitcher, but his complete lack of secondary pitches and his inability to consistently throw the fastball over the plate are going to seriously hinder him until he makes some serious improvements.  When he’s on – pumping that heater for strikes and mixing in the occasional slider – he is very tough to hit, as evidenced by his stats thus far with the Diamondbacks.

In a keeper roto league, Valverde is definitely worth a look.  He is the type of guy who’s future could be as a closer.  He’s never been a starter, he doesn’t have a wide selection of pitches to throw and he’s got that blazing fastball every manager likes coming out of the bullpen in the ninth inning.  If he can improve his control, even slightly, and refine his slider a little bit, he could definitely have a successful stint as a closer.  He has similar stuff/repertoire to Billy Koch and Armando Benitez – two of the most successful active closers.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

Past subjects of Prospect Central who recently made their MLB debuts...

Miguel Cabrera – Prospect Central: Volume Seven

“He’s the complete package and appears to be developing power as he matures, which means some of those 43 doubles from last year (and 14 from this year) will start going a few extra feet and over fences.

Keep an eye on this guy, because if he keeps hitting like this, he’s going to be getting a lot of attention very soon.

Gleeman long-term grade: A-“

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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