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2003 Prospect Central: Volume Seventeen

By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at five prospects who were recently traded to new organizations.

ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF

Organization: Milwaukee Brewers

Acquired: Signed by Atlanta as an un-drafted free agent from Venezuela in 1998; traded to Kansas City in Rey Sanchez deal in 2001; traded to Milwaukee in Curtis Leskanic deal in 2003.

Bats: Right

DOB: 4-26-1982

Alejandro Machado changed teams in a mid-season trade for the second time in three seasons this month, going from Kansas City to Milwaukee in the deal that brought veteran reliever Curtis Leskanic to the Royals.  In 2001, Machado was part of the deal that sent Rey Sanchez from the Royals to the Atlanta Braves.

There’s a lot to like about Machado as a player.  First of all, he’s very young.  He already has more than a half-season of Double-A under his belt and he doesn’t turn 22 until next April.  In addition to that, he has shown the ability to hit for solid batting averages at several stops, including .314 in Single-A last year and .282 in Double-A so far this season.  He also has good speed, decent plate discipline and very good defensive abilities in the middle-infield.

The big downside of Machado’s game is a complete lack of power.  In nearly 1,500 career minor league at bats, Machado has a measly four home runs.  In addition to not hitting any long balls, he doesn’t smack many balls into gaps either.  His 14 doubles this year are a career-high, as are his five triples.

A think a good comparison for Machado would be Florida second baseman Luis Castillo.  Machado is sort of a “poor man’s” Castillo, with less batting average and less speed than the Marlins’ All-Star.  Of course, batting average and speed are Castillo’s two biggest strengths, which is why Machado doesn’t project to be anything particularly special as a major league player.

Machado’s glove can handle shortstop, but his arm is below-average for the position and he’s been moved to second base full-time this season.  At second, his lack of offense becomes more of an issue, although his lack of arm will be less of one, and his glove will be a real asset.

Machado could have a future in Milwaukee.  The Brewers’ current second baseman, Eric Young, is 36 years old, and it’s unclear what the long-term plan is for the current backup second baseman, 27 year old Keith Ginter.  Machado could get a serious look at second for the Brew Crew at some point, possibly as soon as next year.  If nothing else, I think he would make a very solid utility infielder.

Gleeman long-term grade: C+

VICTOR DIAZ – IF

Organization: New York Mets

Acquired: Los Angeles’ 37th round pick in 2000 draft; traded to New York in Jeromy Burnitz deal in 2003.

Bats: Right

DOB: 12-10-1981

Victor Diaz came from the Dodgers to the Mets earlier this month, along with a couple of other prospects, in exchange for veteran outfielder Jeromy Burnitz.  Diaz was originally a 37th round pick of Los Angeles’ back in 2000.

Diaz’s first two stops in the Los Angeles organization were extremely impressive.  He made his pro debut in the Gulf Coast (rookie) League in 2000 and hit .353 in 53 games.  Then, he started the 2001 season in Single-A and hit .350 in 91 games, before being promoted to Double-A – almost exactly two years after being drafted.  Diaz struggled in his first taste of Double-A, hitting just .211/.258/.336 in 42 games for Jacksonville.

He found himself back in Jacksonville to start this season and the results were much better the second time around.  Before the trade, Diaz was hitting .291 with 10 homers and 20 doubles in 85 games.  He has only played in a few games thus far for his new Double-A team, Binghamton.

As of right now, the two biggest concerns with Diaz are his defensive abilities and his plate discipline.  Diaz has bounced all around the infield trying to find a position to stick at.  As recently as last season, he had played games at all four infield spots.  For the moment at least, his position appears to be second base, where he has played all his games this season.

Diaz’s has yet to make any significant strides with plate discipline as a professional.  Last year, he walked just 34 times in 133 games and had a 2.5/1 K/BB ratio.  So far this year, he has 27 walks in 87 games, which is a slight improvement over last year’s walk rate, but still definitely sub par.  And, his strikeout/walk ratio remains worse than 2/1.

While his defense and plate discipline are questions, his hitting ability isn’t one.  Diaz currently has a career minor league batting average in excess of .310 and he has shown very nice power throughout his career, including an impressive 32 extra-base hits in 316 at bats so far this season.  If he can handle second base defensively (which is a pretty big “if”), I think his bat would be a very big plus there, particularly if his already-solid power continues to develop.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

RYAN SNARE – SP

Organization: Texas Rangers

Acquired: Cincinnati’s second round pick in 2000 draft; traded to Florida in Ryan Dempster deal in 2002; traded to Texas in Ugueth Urbina deal in 2003.

Throws: Left

DOB: 2-8-1979

Originally a second round pick of the Reds’ back in 2000, Ryan Snare was dealt to the Marlins in 2002 and was recently sent to Texas as part of the package that brought Ugueth Urbina to Florida.

As far as relatively unknown pitching prospects go, I like Ryan Snare quite a bit.  He’s not an upper-level prospect by any means, but he has good stuff and his minor league numbers have been extremely good his entire career.

Drafted out of the University of North Carolina, Snare made his pro debut in the Midwest (Single-A) League in 2001 and pitched very well.  He went 9-5 with a 3.05 ERA in 20 starts, posting an excellent 118/37 K/BB ratio in 115 innings.  Snare spent last year between Single-A and Double-A, combining to go 12-4 with a 3.12 ERA.  Once again, he had a very good K/BB ratio of 137/40.

Snare started this season at Double-A Carolina, where he went 5-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 18 starts.  The ERA was still very good, but one concern is that his K rate, which had been in excess of 8.5 per nine innings during his first two pro seasons, was all the way down to just 6.7/9 IP.  Since being traded, Snare was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma, where he has made one start already, pitching six innings of shutout ball, with four strikeouts and two walks.

Snare’s stuff is good, but not overpowering.  He features a high-80s/low-90s fastball and his best pitch is definitely his big-breaking curve.  There has been some debate as to whether or not he is best suited as a starting pitcher or in a left-handed setup role long-term.  Right know, the Rangers appear to be willing to continue having him pitch out of the rotation and I think he can be a successful starter in the major leagues.

I’m more than a little surprised that Snare doesn’t receive more attention.  He’s a mature pitcher that throws strikes, he has good stuff and his minor league track-record is excellent.   Plus, he’s left-handed and can tough 90+ MPH at times, which is a very rare combination.

Ryan Snare definitely has a future in the major leagues and, with Texas’ need for pitching, he is a solid addition to the organization and could see The Ballpark in Arlington fairly soon.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

WILL SMITH – OF

Organization: Texas Rangers

Acquired: Florida’s sixth round pick in 2000 draft; traded to Texas in Ugueth Urbina deal in 2003.

Bats: Left

DOB: 10-23-1981

Not to be confused with any Bel-Air royalty, this Will Smith was part of the package of prospects joining the Rangers organization in exchange for Ugueth Urbina.  Smith was drafted in the sixth round of the 2000 draft out of a high school in Arizona, where he holds the state record for home runs in a career.  While his power in the pros has been nowhere near as prolific as it was in high school, it has been relatively good, prior to this season at least.

In 2001 and 2002, at two different Single-A levels, Smith hit .280 and .299, while smacking 44 and 56 extra-base hits.  The one thing he didn’t do was take any walks, drawing a total of 63 in the two years combined – a total of 258 games.  This year, Smith moved up a level to Double-A, where his lack of plate discipline has stayed with him and his power has vanished.  After hitting 14 homers last year, he has just one long ball in 142 Double-A at bats, to go along with his sub par 11/26 BB/K ratio.

A young player (Smith doesn’t turn 22 until October) struggling in his first taste of the advanced minor leagues isn’t particularly unique or concerning however, and there isn’t much on the rest of Smith’s resume that would lead anyone to think he won’t continue to hit.

Defensively, Smith is average at best in a corner outfield spot and unable to handle centerfield.  He’s going to have to hit to stick, and I think he has a good chance of doing so eventually.  Watch his performance in Double-A during the second-half of the year, where he could start rounding into form again after getting used to the higher level of competition during the first-half.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Organization: Texas Rangers

Acquired: Florida’s first round pick (first overall) in 2000 draft; traded to Texas in Ugueth Urbina deal in 2003.

Bats: Left

DOB: 5-8-1982

The headline name among the three prospects Florida received for Ugueth Urbina is Adrian Gonzalez, the former #1 overall pick in 2000 draft. Heading into this season, Gonzalez was viewed as one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball. He has struggled at times this season and there are some injury concerns surrounding him, but he's still a top-level prospect and the fact that the Rangers were able to get him and two other good prospects for half a season of Ugueth Urbina is remarkable and a huge credit to Rangers' GM John Hart.

Of course, the Rangers aren't exactly hurting for more hitting, so adding Gonzalez - a first baseman - to the mix doesn't address their massive need for pitching.  That said, adding potentially great players to the organization – regardless of their position - is always a good idea, and they can sort out the details later.

In exchange for Gonzalez, Ryan Snare and Will Smith, the Marlins received the remainder of Urbina's 2003 season, which is likely about 30-35 innings, maybe 40 at the most. Considering his ERAs over the last 5 seasons are 3.69, 4.05, 3.65, 3.00 and 4.19 (at the time of the trade this season), I just can't see any reason for the Marlins to make this deal.

How much could 30-40 innings from a guy with a 4.19 ERA help a slightly-above .500 team make a run for the playoffs? And, is whatever help he can give going to be worth the next 15 years of Adrian Gonzalez's career, let alone the careers of Snare and Smith? Of course not.

If a half-season of an “okay” reliever is worth three good prospects, including a former #1 overall pick from just a few years ago, how much is legit superstar like Brian Giles potentially worth to a team in a trade?

Pardon the pun, but there seems to be something fishy going on in Florida. Remember last year when the Expos traded for Bartolo Colon from Cleveland and sent the Indians three top-level prospects (Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips)? And then remember, just a few months later, when the Expos sent Colon to the White Sox and all they got in return was a damaged Orlando Hernandez, Rocky Biddle and Jeff Liefer (whom they later released)? This Urbina deal feels the same way to me, in that they appear to have massively overpaid, but maybe I'm wrong. I get nervous when current Marlins owner and former Expos owner Jeffrey Loria is involved.

Gonzalez’s prospect star has dimmed this season, without a doubt, but he just turned 21 years old in May and the man will hit, there’s no doubt in my mind about that.  He may never be a huge source of home run power, but he’ll be a solid all-around hitter and he has great defensive abilities at first base.  Where he fits into Texas’ long-term plan is uncertain and it’s certainly possible that he doesn’t fit at all.  In which case, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is traded again in the not-so-distant future, most likely for some pitching.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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