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2003 Prospect Central: Volume 20

By Aaron Gleeman 

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at prospects who recently made their major league debuts.

GARRETT ATKINS – 3B

Organization: Colorado Rockies

Acquired: Colorado’s fifth round pick in 2000 draft.

Bats: Right

DOB: 12-12-1979

Originally a first baseman, Garrett Atkins made the move across the diamond to third base because he was blocked in the Colorado organization by Todd Helton.  The results of the move defensively have been mixed, and his hitting, which is supposed to be his strong suit, has not been overly impressive either.

After hitting .325 with 43 doubles at Single-A in 2001, Atkins moved up to Double-A last year and hit just .271, although he turned some of those doubles into homers, smacking a total of 12 homers to go along with 27 doubles. 

Before he was called up to Colorado, Atkins was hitting .320/.375/.482 at Triple-A this season.  Those numbers are certainly very good, but they are few less impressive than they initially appear.  The Rockies Triple-A affiliate is Colorado Springs, which is a tremendous hitter’s park and probably the closest thing to Coors Field there is.  A .320 batting average is impressive anywhere, but a .482 slugging percentage at Colorado Springs is not particularly good, especially for a corner infielder who isn’t great on defense.

Like many Rockies hitters, Atkins’ home and road performances at Triple-A were completely different.  He hit .386 at home, with a home run every 20 at bats, and hit just .258 on the road, with a homer every 71 at bats.  That’s a gigantic difference and a great example of why minor league numbers should never simply be taken at face value.

In a normal hitting environment, Atkins projects as a .275-.290 hitter with 10-15 homers a year.  If he stays with the Rockies, he could very easily hit .320+ with 25 homers a season.  If you’re in a league that simply tracks raw totals, you already know the value of having Colorado hitters, so grab Atkins up.  He appears to be in a position to become Colorado’s full-time third baseman very soon.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

JIMMY GOBBLE – SP

Organization: Kansas City Royals

Acquired: Kansas City’s first round pick (43rd overall) in 1999 draft.

Throws: Left

DOB: 7-19-1981

After a breakout 2001 season in which he went 10-6 with a 2.55 in 162 innings, Jimmy Gobble struggled through several injury problems last season, before finally having his season cut short.  Gobble, the 43rd overall pick in the 1999 draft, suffered both groin and shoulder injuries last season, was limited to a total of 69 innings, and threw his last pitch of the year in July.

Gobble came back completely healthy this season and had a lot of success back in Double-A.  Like most lefties, Gobble can’t throw his fastball 95 MPH, but he has three effective pitches and can get his fastball in the 88-91 range consistently.

His strikeout rate at Double-A – both last season and this season – is a step below where it was at back in Single-A.  He struck out 8.6 batters per nine innings in 2001 and has struck out just 6.8/9 IP since then.  6.8 strikeouts per game isn’t particularly good, especially for a legitimate prospect, but it’s also not bad, particularly for a lefty.

Gobble’s other rates are good.  He has pretty good control and has done a nice job limiting home runs, having given up just 22 in his last 364 innings pitched.

I really like Gobble’s chances of becoming a solid, middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Royals.  He’s performed well everywhere he has pitched, he just turned 22 years old, and he’s left-handed.  He also appears to be suited for the starting rotation, because he is equally effective against both right-handed and left-handed batters.  This year in Double-A, righties hit .252 off Gobble and lefties hit .257.

Jimmy Gobble looks to me like a guy who has #3 starter written all over him.  He doesn’t have dominant stuff, but it’s good, and he definitely knows how to pitch.  His first taste of the big leagues is going very well.  He pitched six scoreless innings against the Devil Rays in his major league debut, winning the game 2-0.  In his second career start, this past Saturday, he went 6.1 innings, once again against Tampa Bay.  Before I can get too excited about his performance though, I think I want to see him pitch against a little better competition once or twice, but 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in two career starts isn’t too shabby no matter who he’s facing.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

JON SWITZER – SP

Organization: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Acquired: Tampa Bay’s second round pick in 2001 draft.

Throws: Left

DOB: 8-13-1979

A supplemental first round pick of the Devil Rays back in 2001, Jon Switzer had one of the highest strikeout rates of any starter in minor league baseball last season, striking out over 11 batters per nine innings pitched.  In addition to the very impressive 129 strikeouts in 103 innings, Switzer walked just 26 men, making for an absolutely beautiful 129/26 strikeout/walk ratio.

So far this season, Switzer’s strikeout rate is down significantly from last year’s level.  His K rate dropped from 11.3/9 IP all the way to 7.1/9 IP.  Now, 7.1 strikeouts per game isn’t a bad figure, but it is definitely concerning when a guy loses 37% of his strikeout rate.

Part of the drop in strikeouts is no doubt due to moving up to Double-A, but I can’t help but wonder if some of it isn’t because of some loss of velocity/elbow problems, both of which have been problems for Switzer in the past.

Even if he doesn’t boost his K rate back up to previous levels, Switzer is still a good pitching prospect.  He’s left-handed, he throws strikes and he’s getting his fair shares of strikeouts, even this year.  That said, there is a massive difference between a 24 year old lefty striking out 11 batters per game and a 24 year old lefty striking out seven batters per game.  The latter might have a chance of becoming a good #3 starter, whereas the former might have a chance of being something special.

If you’re in a deep keeper league, take a flier on Switzer, because he could definitely be in line for a full-time spot in Tampa Bay’s rotation at some point in the near future.  Otherwise, keep an eye on his strikeout rate and, if it starts climbing, grab him.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

JOSH HALL – SP

Organization: Cincinnati Reds

Acquired: Cincinnati’s seventh round pick in 1998.

Throws: Right

DOB: 12-16-1980

After missing all of the 1999 season and the majority of the 2000 season with shoulder injuries, Josh Hall bounced back in 2001 and had a very good year at Single-A, pitching 132 innings with a 2.65 ERA and a 122/39 strikeout/walk ratio.  He spent last season split between Single-A and Double-A, and had similar success, combining to pitch 176 innings with a 3.38 ERA.

For a pitcher with Hall’s extensive injury history, pitching 176 innings at 22 years old - and just one year removed from missing the majority of two straight seasons with injuries - is a little disturbing.  So far though, it doesn’t appear to be hurting Hall’s performance.

Before his call up, Hall pitched 128 innings at Double-A, with a 3.23 ERA and a 100/47 K/BB ratio.  His strikeout rate is down from his 2001/2002 levels, so I suppose that could be a sign of him being overworked.

Hall doesn’t have great stuff, but he’s still young and it’s hard to argue with his results over the last three years.  The Reds aren’t exactly overflowing with major league quality starting pitchers, so Hall could definitely get a serious look at some point, perhaps as early as next season.

Hall pitched five innings of 4-hit/2-run baseball in his major league debut, against the Giants on August 2nd.  He was optioned back to Double-A two days later and seems to be a good bet to rejoin the team when rosters expand in September.

Gleeman long-term grade: C+

AARON LOOPER – RP

Organization: Seattle Mariners

Acquired: Seattle’s 30th round pick in 1998 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 9-7-1976

Aaron Looper, the cousin of Marlins closer Braden Looper, was a 30th round selection of the Mariners back in 1998.  He struggled initially as a pro, posting ERAs of 6.86, 4.10 and 5.70 in his first three minor league seasons.  Since then however, Looper has been lights out.

Back in 2001, at Single-A, Looper appeared in 56 games and pitched a total of 71 innings, with a fantastic 77/22 strikeout/walk ratio.  He had a 2.79 ERA, limited batters to a .224 batting average and gave up just one homer all year.

He moved up to Double-A last season and had another good year.  Looper pitched a total of 91 innings with a stingy 2.28 ERA, while posting another excellent 76/30 K/BB ratio.  He held batters to a .230 batting average and gave up just four long balls.

This year, Looper moved up again, this time to Triple-A.  Before his call up, he had pitched 64 innings with a 3.09 ERA and a 63/19 K/BB ratio.  His home run allowed rate is up quite a bit, but both his strikeout rate and his strikeout/walk rate are still very strong.  Left-handed batters have teed off on him to the tune of a .340 batting average, but he has dominated right-handed batters, holding them to a .189 average.  Overall, batters are hitting .250 against him.

Looper’s stint with the Mariners was a short one.  He was called up on August 2nd, pitched an inning that night and then 2.1 innings on the 6th, and was sent back down to Triple-A on the 8th.  The Mariners bullpen is fairly loaded, particularly if they get Kaz Sasaki back at some point, and they are in a pennant race, so there isn’t a whole lot of room for rookie relievers to break in.  That said, Looper may get a serious look next season.

Aaron Looper turns 27 years old next month and he’s a minor league reliever, so his window of opportunity is quickly closing.  If someone gives him a chance, he can definitely be a good major league relief pitcher.  There are dozens of guys like Looper throughout the minor leagues, guys who have a good track-record as relievers, but who, for whatever reason, are not looked at as serious options for a major league team.  That’s a mistake, because a good pitcher is a good pitcher, whether he is 22, 27 or 37.

Most organizations have a pitcher or two who might be a little old to be a prospect, but who have consistently performed well.  If a team simply gives them a chance, they could end up with the next Brendan Donnelly.  Donnelly bounced around the minor leagues for years and didn’t make his major league debut until last season, at the age of 30.  All that time, he was doing his job in the minor leagues, posting low ERAs wherever he went.  The Angels finally gave him a shot last year, he gave them 49.2 innings and a 2.17 ERA, and the rest is history.  Now, he’s got a 0.94 ERA this season and is one of the best relievers in baseball.

I’m not saying Aaron Looper is Brendan Donnelly, just that, until last year, Brendan Donnelly wasn’t even Brendan Donnelly.  Instead of continuously messing around with guys like Pat Mahomes and Brian Meadows, who have proven their ineptitude at the major league level over and over again, I don’t understand why organizations don’t give guys like Looper and Donnelly a real chance more often.

Gleeman long-term grade: C

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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Aaron Gleeman analyzes minor league prospects exclusively in the Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com member area.

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