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2003 Prospect Central: Volume Sixteen

By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at five players who recently made their major league debuts. 

LAYNCE NIX – OF

Organization: Texas Rangers

Acquired: Texas’ fourth round pick in 2000 draft.

Bats: Left

DOB: 10-30-1980

The Texas Rangers have always had problems in centerfield.  The list of men who have patrolled center in the Ballpark at Arlington and Arlington Stadium over the years is less than impressive, to say the least.  In recent years, the Rangers have trotted out guys like Ruben Rivera (.209/.302/.310 in 2002), Tom Goodwin (.269/.348/.336 in 1997-1999), Damon Buford (.241/.304/.376 in 1996-1997), Otis Nixon (.295/.357/.338 in 1995) and David Hulse (.278/.321/.346 in 1992-1994).

Already this year, the position has been filled by seven different players and it isn’t even August.  Whether it has been Ryan Christenson, Donnie Sadler and Doug Glanville’s lack of offense or Carl Everett’s lack of defense, the legacy of bad performances from CFs has continued in Texas.  That may all be about to change.

Laynce Nix was the Rangers’ fourth round pick in the 2000 draft out of a high school in Midland, Texas.  After signing him away from a scholarship to LSU, where he likely would have played both baseball and football, the Rangers started Nix in the Gulf Coast League (rookie-level) in 2000 and he struggled, hitting just .226/.307/.302 in 51 games.  Nix, whose brother Jayson is a top prospect in the Colorado system, moved up to Single-A in 2001 and hit .280 between two levels, while smacking 46 extra-base hits in 113 games.

Last season, Nix spent the whole year at high Single-A Charlotte and batted .285/.374/.473 in 137 games, totaling a very impressive 51 extra-base hits, including 21 homers, while driving in 110 runs.  Not only was the batting average and power display impressive, Nix nearly doubled his walk rate from the year before.  After walking just .327 times per game in 2001, Nix upped that to .525 times per game in 2002 – a difference of about 30 walks over the course of a full season.

Before being called up to Texas earlier this month, Nix was hitting .284/.344/.487 in his first taste of Double-A.  His power has continued to develop consistently and he already had 15 homers and 23 doubles in only 335 at bats.  His plate discipline is down slightly from last season, but that is to be expected from a young player making the jump from Single-A to Double-A and his walk rate is still definitely very solid.

As a hitter, Nix has the whole package.  He has consistently hit in the .275-.290 range throughout his minor league career, despite being young for most of his leagues.  More importantly, his power is becoming more of a weapon as he matures and gets stronger.  He is already very muscular despite his small-stature and one concern is that, as he continues to add muscle, his defensive abilities will suffer, making it hard for him to continue playing centerfield capably.  As it stands now, Nix is not a Gold Glove candidate in center, but he can certainly handle the position.  Whether that changes in the future or not is unknown at this point.

Nix will hit wherever he plays.  As a corner outfielder, he is a possible all-star.  As a centerfielder, he is a possible MVP.  As Texas eventually says goodbye to Rafael Palmeiro, they say hello to a new crop of hitting talent, led first by Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira, and now joined by Laynce Nix.  That ARod guy is still only 27 too, so it looks like they’ll be scoring some runs in Arlington for quite a while.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

LUIS TERRERO – OF

Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks

Acquired: Signed by Arizona as an un-drafted free agent from Dominican Republic in 1997.

Bats: Both

DOB: 5-18-1980

Luis Terrero is a tremendous athlete who has a ton of impressive “tools.”  Throughout various points during his minor league career, he has even flashed the ability to turn those tools into actual baseball skills.  What he has also done is had a problem staying healthy and, along with that, performing consistently.

Terrero is very fast and is a quality defensive centerfielder.  He has also shown the ability to hit for solid batting averages.  What he hasn’t shown is the ability to control the strike zone at even an adequate level, which leads to wildly inconsistent stretches.  He has also not been able to convert his raw speed into productive work on the bases and, so far this year, has stolen 15 bases – and been caught 14 times.

In his minor league career, Terrero now has a 111/484 walk/strikeout ratio (4.36/1), which is absolutely horrendous.  Since advancing past Single-A in the middle of the 2001 season, it has gotten only marginally better at 50/207 (4.14/1).  Very rare is a player who can become successful in the major leagues after posting 1/4 BB/K ratios throughout his minor league career and Terrero doesn’t appear to have any of the other skills necessary – namely power – to overcome the horrible strike zone control.

Terrero is still young enough to develop additional power and even improve his plate discipline.  The chances of him doing both are not particularly good and, if he doesn’t, he looks like another in a long line of toolsy, athletic outfielders who look good in a uniform, but never saw a pitch they didn’t think they could hit. 

He’s worth keeping an eye on, because if he ever figures out what he’s doing at the plate, he could put things together very quickly.  I wouldn’t bet on it happening though.

 Gleeman long-term grade: C+

Coming Later this week:

EDWIN ALMONTE – RP

Organization: New York Mets

Acquired: Chicago’s 26th round pick in 1998 draft; traded to New York in Roberto Alomar deal this season.

Throws: Right

DOB: 12-17-1976

Edwin Almonte was originally drafted by the White Sox in the 26th round of the 1998 draft and came over to the Mets, along with Royce Ring and Andrew Salvo, for Roberto Alomar earlier this month.  Upon joining the Mets organization, Almonte went to Triple-A Norfolk of the International League and, prior to the trade, he had been pitching at Triple-A Charlotte in the same league. 

His combined numbers this season are not pretty.  He has pitched a total of 39 2/3 innings and has given up 48 hits, while compiling a sub par 26/16 strikeout/walk ratio.  He has also given up six homers already, the same amount he gave up all of last season and two more than he gave up in 2001.  Almonte’s struggles this season are unexpected because he had been a very good pitcher in each of the last two seasons.

In 2001, he pitched 66 innings with a 1.49 ERA and a 61/16 K/BB ratio in Double-A.  In 2002, Almonte had a 2.24 ERA and a 56/12 K/BB ratio in 60 Triple-A innings.  Unless Almonte is hiding some sort of an injury, I am inclined to believe he is just off to a rough start this season and can turn it around.  This is not the case of someone having trouble with a new level of competition, since his 2.24 ERA in 2002 came in the exact same league he has pitched in this season.

Almonte’s fastball is not overly impressive, but he has shown the ability to strike batters out consistently since moving to the bullpen full-time following the 2000 season.  I think he can be a successful major league relief pitcher, as long as he stays healthy.  Whether or not he gets an extended chance to prove himself in the big leagues is debatable. 

The Mets called him up on July 7th, let him pitch two innings that night against the Braves, and then sent him back down to Triple-A on July 9th.  Almonte turns 27 in December, so he’s too old to be a real prospect and his lack of fastball velocity may keep him from getting a fair look.  If he does get one, he can get people out in the major leagues, it’s just a question of getting the opportunity at some point.

Gleeman long-term grade: C+

JASON STANFORD – SP

Organization: Cleveland Indians

Acquired: Signed by Cleveland as an un-drafted free agent in 1999.

Throws: Left

DOB: 1-23-1977

Jason Stanford is the epitome of a back-of-the-rotation-starter.  He doesn’t have great stuff, but his minor league numbers are generally fairly good and consistent.  He typically strikes out 6.5-7.5 batters per game and has K/BB ratios of 2-1 or 3-1, while keeping the ball in the ballpark.  Unlike many of the dozens of other similarly skilled and qualified pitchers throughout minor league baseball, Stanford has the added bonus of being left-handed, which gives him a definite leg up on the competition.

The Indians called Stanford up from Triple-A earlier this month and he pitched very well in two starts.  He pitched a total of 11 innings with a 2.45 ERA and did not figure in the decision of either game.  I watched his major league debut against the Twins on July 6th and wasn’t impressed, despite Stanford limiting Minnesota to just two runs in five innings.  His stuff is thoroughly mediocre and his control was sub par, which is probably to be expected in someone’s MLB debut.  He walked four in five innings and struck out just one.  In his second start, against Chicago, Stanford went six innings and struck out one and walked two.

Despite the low ERA and the back-to-back solid outings, the Indians optioned Stanford back to Triple-A immediately following his second start.  Cleveland doesn’t exactly have a ton of major league quality pitching at the moment, so it’s more than likely Stanford will get another chance to impress before the year is done.

He’s nothing special, but he has a solid minor league track-record and could definitely be a nice 4th or 5th starter for a little while.

Gleeman long-term grade: C

CHRIS MEARS – RP

Organization: Detroit Tigers

Acquired: Seattle’s fifth round pick in 1996 draft; signed by Detroit as free agent in 2002.

Throws: Right

DOB: 1-20-1978

Have you ever wondered how otherwise mediocre relief pitchers somehow get labeled “closers” and go on to save 30 games a year while giving fans all over the country heart-attacks on a nightly basis?  This is how.

After years of toiling in the minors as a mediocre starting pitcher, Chris Mears was moved to the bullpen at Triple-A this season and had some reasonably good numbers.  He was then called up to the struggling Tigers and, in his fourth major league game, came into a 2-1 game in the eighth inning and pitched two scoreless innings for the “save.”  It was only the 16th save the Tigers had all season and Mears pitched well, so the next night, when the Tigers amazingly had another late lead, Mears was called out of the bullpen again and pitched a scoreless inning for his second career save.  Then, the next night, the Tigers again had a late lead and again called Mears into the bullpen.  Mears pitched 2/3 of an inning of scoreless ball and, suddenly, he had three saves in three games.

You get called up from the minors and, because the team you are on rarely has a late-inning lead and they don’t have a set “closer,” you get a chance to save a game.  You do it and the manager figures “what the heck” and sticks you out there again.  Again you save the game.  The next night, the manager goes with you again and, once again, you save the game.  And then, the manager says the following when asked by reporters if you are his new closer: “He’s three-for-three.  At this point, he would certainly deserve it.”  And just like that, a mediocre closer is born – and all it took was 3 2/3 good innings.

The truth of the matter is that Chris Mears is no different than dozens of other minor league pitchers fighting for a shot at the major leagues right now.  He doesn’t have great stuff or great numbers and he’s too old to be a prospect.  Yet, he now finds himself not only with a major league bullpen job, but with the major league bullpen job – “closer.”  He could go on to have Antonio Alfonseca’s career (4.01 ERA, 121 saves) or he could be sent back down to Triple-A next month, it all depends on how well he pitches over the next 15-20 innings or so, just like his newfound closer job was dependent on how he pitched in his first seven or eight innings.

The next time you hear about a team being in need of a “proven closer,” just remember Chris Mears and think about how ridiculous it is that guys like Alfonseca, Mike Williams and many relievers and get the label of “proven closer” and it somehow sticks, despite the fact that all a decent relief needs to have happen in order to become a closer is to be given a chance – just like Mears.  Every year, long-time relievers like Eddie Guardado and Joe Borowski and Braden Looper and Tim Worrell join the “proven closer” club, for no other reason than they are good pitchers and have been given a chance to get the last three outs of games in which their team is leading by three runs or less.

If you’re in a league that gives points for saves, grab Mears if you can.  The Tigers aren’t going to have many saves to go around in the second half, but Mears appears likely to get the few they do have, at least for a little while. 

Gleeman long-term grade: C

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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