Posted for members in May of 2007

Jesse Litsch – Blue Jays

Starting Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-1, 175 – 3/9/1985

The 22-year-old right-hander was strong in his MLB debut against the Orioles on May 15^th, holding them to 1 earned run on 4 hits and 3 walks over 8.2 IP. The rub was that he fanned just one in that outing. But here’s the thing … He got 21 ground ball outs.

And there lies the beauty of Jesse Litsch who was a 24^th round draft pick in 2004 as a draft-and-follow out of South Florida Community College. Jesse mixes a low-90s fastball with a curveball, slider, change and two seamer.

He is just coming into his own in terms of how all of those pieces fit and after a so-so 2006 tour in AA on the Banks of the Merrimack in Manchester N.H., Jesse went 5-1 with an 0.96 ERA with the Fischer Cats before his call up this year.

Last year he stuck to his fastball and cowered away from his offspeed stuff but he has now learned the joys of pitching to contact that only a groundball pitcher can know.

He struck a fair amount of hitters in Manchester, 28 in 37.2 IP (6.7/9) against just 7 walks. He fanned 7.0/9 in 2006 (54 in 69.1 IP) while walking 13. But last year he gave up 85 hits (1.41 WHIP) and this year he’s given up just 22 hits (0.92). That was a direct result of him learning that he can be effective throwing something other than his 4-seem. The Jays also love his mental makeup and his desire to learn and improve.

A pitcher who is capable of fanning 5 or 6 a game who can also throw 10+ groundball outs a game is intriguing. Think Derek Lowe. We simply down know enough yet to determine if Jesse can do either consistently on the MLB level, but it’s his ability to throw GBOs is what makes him interesting beyond his stat line.

He has earned a couple more turns as the Blue Jays try and fill their battle-scarred rotation. It is probably too early to “draft” him for your team especially as he plies his trade in the AL East, but we will follow him for a few starts to see can compete. Jesse will start today against the Phillies

Long Term Fantasy Grade – C+

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2006 A+   6  6  3.53  89.1  8.1  0.8  0.5  .272  1.14

2006 AA   3  4  5.06  69.1  7.0  1.6  0.7  .303  1.41

2007 AA   5  1  0.96  37.2  6.6  1.6  0.4  .172  0.77

2007 MLB  1  0  1.04   8.2  1.0  3.1  0.0  .141  0.81    

Clay Buchholz – Red Sox

Starting Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-3, 190 – 8/14/1984

Jacoby Ellsbury gets most of the ink in the Red Sox farm system but perhaps the bigger impact prospect is Clay Buchholz. A supplemental first round pick for the Sox in 2005, Clay has dominated three levels in his first two pro seasons.

Clay throws a low-90s fastball that can get to 95 or 96 when needed but his bread and butter is a terrific change. He also has a great vertical curve and a decent slider.

He has the stuff already, what he is working on in the minors is the craft of pitch selection and general pitching strategy. The Sox would like him to understand how you work a hitter the first time up in a game with an eye towards his second and third time up.

Over two levels of A-ball last year Clay fanned 140 in 119 IP while walking just 33 and allowing 88 hits (1.01 WHIP). One thing he has learned is that he can be extremely effective working in pitchers counts.

This year, just south of the B&M Baked Bean factory in Portland Maine Clay has held opponents to a .179 OBA over 39 IP. He’s given up 25 hits and 7 walks (0.69) while striking out 53 (12.2/9). Oh and he has been better against lefties, holding them to a .151 OBA, .288 SLG%, and 0.61 WHIP.

Clay represents true Ace potential even though he’s still a bit underrated in many circles. He will however be near the top of many top prospect lists this time next year I suspect, including ours here at Prospect Central  

Long Term Fantasy Grade – A

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2006 A    9  4  2.62 103.0 10.2  2.5  0.9  .212  1.04

2006 A+   2  0  1.13  16.0 12.9  2.3  0.0  .181  0.88

2007 AA   1  1  1.82  39.2 12.0  1.6  0.7  .183  0.81

John Van Benschoten – Pirates

Starting Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-4, 217 – 4/14/1980

The Pirates are in the market for a starter to replace Tony Armas who is struggling mightily this season and John Van Benschoten is in the mix along with fellow prospect Bryan Bullington and Shawn Chacon.

The Pirated had hoped that he would be recovered enough from shoulder surgery to take a couple of turns for them last September but his shoulder tightened up on him. In fact, he lost most of the last two years to shoulder issues managing only 22.2 IP last year.

This year we are seeing a healthy pitcher for the first time in a while and he is looking pretty good. John is just 3-3 in 8 starts in AAA Indy but he has posted a .247 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He has fanned 31 in 43.2 IP while walking 17. That 3.5 BB rate doesn’t warm your heart but he’s lowered that rate from his career (albeit a small sample) rate of 5.97. He has also cut his HR rate to 0.2 this year, down from 0.9 over his career and that is with a very normal .281 BHIP% so there is some teeth to this progress.

John’s lefty/righty split is pretty level and he throws enough ground balls to be effective with a borderline K rate but he needs to continue to cut his walks. The Pirates will probably want to see further progress there before they throw him to the MLB wolves. They will also want to see him collect 100+ IP this year to get a chance to dial in that command. Job #1 this season is simply to stay healthy. John is in the Pirates starter picture but he has some work to do in AAA first

Long Term Fantasy Grade – C+

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2004 MLB  1  3  6.91  28.2  5.7  6.0  0.9  .290  1.81

2006 R    0  1  4.50   6.0  6.0  3.0  1.5  .056  0.50

2006 AA   1  0  3.60   5.0  5.4  5.4  0.0  .175  1.20

2006 AAA  1  1  5.40  11.2 10.0  5.4  1.5  .233  1.46

2007 AAA  3  3  2.47  43.2  6.4  3.5  0.2  .231  1.24 

Chuck Lofgren – Indians

Starting Pitcher – Throws Left – 6-4, 200 – 1/29/1985

Few things excite MLB organizations more than tall LHP who can bring it. Chuck Lofgren throws comfortably in the low-90s but can crank his fastball up to 95 on occasion. However, he gets an extra foot out of his fastball with his outstanding changeup. To those offerings, he adds a good curve and a relatively new slider

He is coming quickly both in terms of level and development. Last year in A+ he had some issues with his mechanics that lead to less-than-reliable command. He walked 54 in 140 IP and he didn’t need to nibble. He simply could not repeat his delivery consistently enough.

Opponents hit just .217 off of him and he struck out 125 giving us an idea of his capabilities. This year in AA he hasn’t made much progress in his walk rate but he has upped his K rate to 9.3 over 40.2 IP and lowered his OBA to .196 due mostly to a a drop in BHIP% to .263 from his .277 in 2005.

Chuck is very effective against right handed hitting (.182 OBA this year, .293 SLG%)  due to that terrific change up. He is also competitively aggressive and will work inside to right-handed hitters.

He needs to fully install that new slider this year, and he needs to learn how to work to hitters that he isn’t dominating. There has already been some progress there. In April this year, he fanned 12.1/9 at a new level while opponents hit .244 off of him. This month the K rate has dropped 7.0/9 but he’s been a better pitcher, halving his May BB rate and posting a .138 OBA. He is learning how to pitch.

To me Chuck projects, if all goes well, as a solid #2 starter. I don’t think he can dominate at the MLB level which is why it is so important for him to be a smart pitcher. He has the stuff to be effective if he can polish his mechanics to the point where he can locate at least three of his pitches consistently.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B+

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2006 A+  17  5  2.32 139.2  8.1  3.5  0.3  .215  1.16

2007 AA   3  2  2.88  40.2  9.3  3.3  0.4  .196  1.06    

Bryan Bullington – Pirates

Starting Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-4, 222 – 9/30/1980

Bryan Bullington is the Pirates other injured starter prospect bookend. Like John Van Benschoten, Bullington is coming back from rather severe shoulder issues, in his case labrum surgery. Bryan missed all of 2006 and started the season in AAA where he has been effective to the tune of 6-1 with a 2.40 ERA over 8 starts. That gets him on the Pirates’ radar as they contemplate the immediate future of their rotation. With Tony Armas struggling, the Pirates are looking at Bullington, Van Benschoten, and Shawn Chacon as possible replacements.

A deeper look at his 2007 numbers for AAA Indy shows that Bryan’s overall performance stats cited above aren’t supported by his indicators. Bryan’s opponents are hitting .243 off of him (.277 BHIP%). He has given up 44 hits in 48.2 IP along with 21 walks. That results in a 1.34 WHIP, which should float his ERA a lot closer to 3.50 than it is.  He is fanning just 4.6/9 while walking 3.8/9. That is a good ratio if you are a hitter, but not so much if you are a pitcher.

The key stat here is his 80.5% strand percentage, which should correct by 10% or so this summer. That is the stats that is masking his mediocre peripherals. That 10% correction would have his ERA at 3.69.

Bryan is still recovering from his injury and will need more time at AAA to get his pitching house back in order. The more I look at him and Van Benschoten, the more I see Shawn Chacon taking Armas’ spot if Jim Tracy decides to make a move. One of these two could spend some time in the majors this year in long relief but the Pirates should not be rushing either of these guys to the majors anytime soon.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - C

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2005 MLB  0  0 13.50   1.1  6.8  6.8  0.0  .210  1.50

2007 AAA  6  1  2.40  48.2  4.6  3.9  0.2  .243  1.34

Jeremy Guthrie – Orioles

Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-1, 200 – 4/8/1979

Adam Loewen’s season-ending injury opened the door for Jeremy Guthrie and he has taken advantage to this point.  In three starts since Loewen went down Guthrie has allowed 2 runs in 21.1 IP (0.85) on 13 hits and 2 walks (0.71 WHIP) while fanning 14 (5.9/9).

Granted, two of those starts came against Tampa and Washington but the Rays are a team that presents problems to pitchers and the third start came against the red-hot Red Sox lineup at Fenway. Keep in mind also that 10 of those 14 Ks came against Washington in his last start so those numbers are skewed a bit.

What I don’t like about Jeremy is that his is basically a one-pitch pitcher, that being an only-decent fastball. He throws that pitch a lot especially when he is behind in the count.  He has an ineffective curve and a slider that he pretty much only uses against RHH as well as a token change.

Once considered a very strong prospect, Jeremy was the Indians’ first pick in the 2002 draft, the 22^nd pick overall.  It is the lack of an MLB-level second and third pitch that has kept him in the bullpen. Still, to this point he has actually been better in the 4^th -6^th innings, when hitters are seeing him for the second time, than he has been in the first three innings.  

What Jeremy has done is control his walks (1.7/9) this year and thrown groundballs (1.5). That level of command is outside of his norms. He has a career 3.6 walk rate. But his GB ratio is right in line with his 1.4 career ratio. His BHIP% is a pretty average .288 and he’s actually below league average in strand percentage a 67.4%. So there is some structure to his success so far but Jeremy will have to maintain that gain in command to make it stick.

Perhaps Jeremy has just matured a bit and he is cagey enough to show his mediocre off speed stuff just enough to keep hitters honest but we won’t know what to make of this until the book gets filled out on him as a starter. The AL East is no place to try and get by with just a decent fastball. He may do well during this interleague stretch and the O’s run through Oakland, KC, LA, and Seattle but when the Yankees come to town on June 26^th, followed by series with the Angels, White Sox, and Rangers, I think things could get a lot worse.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – C

Seas Lvl  W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2004 MLB  0  0  4.63  11.2  5.4  4.6  0.8  .215  1.29

2005 MLB  0  0  6.00   6.0  4.5  3.0  3.0  .347  1.83

2006 AAA  9  5  3.14 123.1  6.4  3.5  0.4  .230  1.23

2006 MLB  0  0  6.98  19.1  6.5  7.0  0.9  .306  2.02

2007 MLB  2  1  2.95  36.2  6.4  1.7  0.3  .236  1.06

These reports are just part of our Prospect Central section, every week we publish in-depth profiles on the players that you should be considering adding to your fantasy rosters. Who are the other rookies to consider this year? Sign up for our premium package and dominate your league starting today.