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Prospect Central: Volume Twenty Three (2003)

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  Back in May (Prospect Central: Volume Seven), I identified my “Top 10 Hitting Prospects” in all of baseball for this season.  This week I will look at the hitters ranked 1-5 on that list, to see how they have faired so far this season and how that has impacted their prospect status.  Last week (Prospect Central: Volume Twenty Two), I covered hitters 6-10 on the list.

5) JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B

Organization: Minnesota Twins

Acquired: Minnesota’s 3rd round pick in 1999 draft.

Bats: Left

DOB: 5-15-1981

Justin Morneau tore up Double-A and Triple-A early this year and was rewarded with an unexpected call up to the majors, joining the Twins in the middle of June.  He immediately became Minnesota’s starting designated hitter and was inserted into the cleanup spot.

Morneau got two hits in his first major league game, three hits in his second, and was a dominant hitter throughout his first two weeks in the majors.  Through his first 12 games, Morneau was batting .353/.389/.588 with two homers, two doubles and seven RBIs. 

Then, all of sudden, the league starting to figure him out.  He stopped seeing fastballs and started seeing a steady diet of breaking stuff, down and in.  He went eight for his next 54 (.148) with just one extra-base hit and 19 strikeouts, dropping his season line all the way down to .227/.284/.352.

After two weeks, Morneau was a star.  After a month, he was just another 22 year old kid who struggled with breaking-stuff and wasn’t ready for a full-time job in the major leagues.  The Twins sent him back to Triple-A on July 27th.

Since rejoining Rochester, Morneau has continued to struggle.  At the time of his call up, Morneau was hitting .297 with a .623 slugging percentage in 37 Triple-A games.  Since then, he is 28 for 111 (.252) with just three home runs in 111 at bats.

I still think Morneau is right on-track for greatness.  Prior to the season, he was not expected to make any sort of impact at the major league level and was probably ticketed for a few at bats when rosters expanded in September.  His incredible start in Double-A and Triple-A obviously changed those plans, but his struggles with the Twins should have restored them.

There are two possibilities for Morneau next season.  The most likely is that he begins the year back in Triple-A and finds himself in Minnesota at some point during the Summer, much like what happened this season.  The second is that the Twins do not offer Doug Mientkiewicz arbitration, at which point Morneau’s 2004 role becomes a whole lot larger.  Either way, he is definitely still Minnesota’s first baseman of the future and one of the top hitting prospects in baseball.

Gleeman long-term grade: A

4) JOSE REYES – SS

Organization: New York Mets

Acquired: Signed by New York as un-drafted free agent out of Dominican Republic in 1999.

Bats: Switch

DOB: 6-11-1983

The Mets spent this past off-season signing veteran free agents in an effort to coax one last run out of their aging core.  It became apparent very early on that that plan was not going to work, and the Mets quickly dumped some of those veterans and began their youth movement.  One of the first moves was to call up Jose Reyes from Triple-A.

Reyes wasn’t having a particularly good year in Triple-A, but he has turned his game up a notch since coming to the big leagues.  At just 20 years old, Reyes is hitting .312 with 21 extra-base hits and 13 stolen bases through his first 66 games.  As expected, his plate discipline has not been good and his defense has been erratic, but the offense he has shown is extremely promising.

After struggling in his first month in the major leagues, Reyes’ offense has improved in each month:

June - .205/.211/.342

July - .330/.340/.418

August - .374/.426/.545

He is hitting .350/.387/.491 since the All-Star break, with 10 steals and a much improved strikeout/walk ratio.  I’d say Reyes is in New York to stay.

Doing what Reyes is doing while playing shortstop and while just 20 years old is extremely rare.  He is on pace for slightly more than 400 plate appearances this season, which, in and of itself, puts him in extremely limited company.  In fact, here is the complete list of players who have accumulated 400 or more plate appearances in a season while playing shortstop and being 20 years old or younger, since 1950:

Edgar Renteria – 1996, 1997

Robin Yount – 1975, 1976

Alex Rodriguez – 1996

Alan Trammell – 1978

Jack Heidemann - 1970

Tony Kubek – 1957

Gary Sheffield - 1989

That’s an extremely impressive and short list, to say the least.  Robin Yount is in the Hall of Fame, Alex Rodriguez will be some day and Alan Trammell should be.  Edgar Renteria is having a tremendous season and is one of the best shortstops in the major leagues, Tony Kubek was a 3-time All-Star with the Yankees and Gary Sheffield, while he was moved from shortstop a long time ago, has been one of baseball best players for years now. 

That leaves Jack Heidemann as the odd man out, the only one of the seven young shortstops to not have had a very good major league career.

Heidemann hit just .211/.265/.292 with the Indians in 1970 and bounced around the majors until 1977, never getting more than 260 plate appearances in a year again.

So, since 1950, there have been just seven shortstops who have played as much at as young an age as Jose Reyes is doing right now.  Of those seven, six of them have been to at least three All-Star games and three or four of them (depending on what you think of Trammell and Sheffield) are legitimate Hall of Fame candidates.

That bodes well for Reyes’ future, which is bright enough to give Mets fans some reason for optimism.

Gleeman long-term grade: A

3) VICTOR MARTINEZ – C

Organization: Cleveland Indians

Acquired: Signed by Cleveland as un-drafted free agent out of Venezuela in 1996.

Bats: Switch

DOB: 12-23-1978

Victor Martinez began the year in Triple-A and started very slow.  After a rough first portion of the season though, he caught fire and his overall Triple-A numbers now look very similar to the outstanding numbers he put up throughout the previous several seasons.

Martinez got his first extended taste of the major leagues this season, when he was called up at the end of June and installed as Cleveland’s starting catcher.  He struggled, hitting just .253/.294/.274 in 30 games, before injuring his ankle.  Before the injury, Martinez was showing some signs of breaking out, having hit .368 in 19 August at bats before going on the disabled list.

I would expect Victor Martinez to begin next season as Cleveland’s starter and to never make it back to the minor leagues again.  He has done all he can do there, he is 24 years old and he is ready to become a major league star.  The Indians have a very impressive group of young players who will be breaking into the major leagues over the next year or two, and Victor Martinez is the best of the bunch.

I have compared Martinez to Jorge Posada in the past and I think that comparison is a good one still.  He has the potential to hit for a higher batting average than Posada (a career .268 hitter), but he also will likely walk quite a bit less.  Overall, I think Posada’s offensive abilities (switch-hitter, good on-base skills, good power) and production (career .374 OBP and .470 SLG) are well within Martinez’s reach as a player.

Gleeman long-term grade: A

2) JOE MAUER – C

Organization: Minnesota Twins

Acquired: Minnesota’s 1st round pick (1st overall) in 2001 draft.

Bats: Left

DOB: 4-19-1983

Since being drafted with the #1 overall pick in the 2001 draft, Joe Mauer has played at four different pro levels.  His batting averages at those four stops: .400, .302, .335, .342.  Not bad, huh?

For his minor league career, Mauer has 336 hits in 1,017 at bats, which works out to .330 batting average. To go along with the .330 average, Mauer also sports a career walk/strikeout ratio of 128/99, which is excellent. He gets rave reviews for his defense and game-calling behind the plate, and his throwing arm is among the best, if not the best, in minor league baseball.  He also doesn’t turn 21 for another seven months  or so.  In other words, he is the complete package...except for one thing.

In 1,017 career at bats in the minors, Mauer has hit just nine home runs. He's still extremely young and power does tend to develop later than other skills, but nine home runs in over 1,000 at bats is a very low total for a player who is big and strong, and who scouts have always projected to hit for big power.

For minor leaguers, particularly young ones, the home run totals are often not that impressive. Another thing to look at to try to project future power in a young player is the amount of doubles he hits. The theory being that, as he matures and adds strength, those doubles will start traveling a few extra feet and over fences.

Here are Mauer’s at bats per double rates for his three pro seasons:

2001 – 18.3

2002 – 17.8

2003 – 16.5

That is definitely a steady progression.  This year, Mauer has 30 doubles in 496 at bats between Single-A and Double-A.  He also has five homers – including four in 263 Double-A at bats – after hitting just four in 411 at bats in Single-A last season.

I truly believe Joe Mauer is now the best prospect in baseball. Prior to this season, I ranked him #2 overall, behind Mark Teixeira. Because of Teixeira’s major league playing time, he is no longer a "prospect" and, even if he was, Mauer may have pushed past him on the basis of his outstanding season thus far.

Mauer’s low-end projection right now would seem to me to be someone like Jason Kendall, a career .302/.385/.421 hitter and 3-time All-Star. His high-end projection? Who knows, I really do think the sky is the limit.

Gleeman long-term grade: A 

1) MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Organization: Texas Rangers

Acquired: Texas’ 1st round pick (5th overall) in 2001 draft.

Bats: Switch

DOB: 4-11-1980

With 418 major league at bats under his belt, Teixeira has long passed being a “prospect.”  Now he’s just a young everyday major league player, and a very promising one at that.

Teixeira first season in the majors started very slow, as he hit just .188/.288/.344 in April.  To the Rangers’ credit, they stuck with him and didn’t send him down to the minors or put him on the bench.  He rewarded them by hitting .282/.358/.507 in May and then .264/.360/.529 and .265/.336/.449 in June and July.  He has since cooled off and is perhaps hitting that “rookie wall.”  Overall, he has hit .244/.322/.445 on the year and is leading all rookies in homers.

Teixeira’s batting average (.244) and plate discipline (32 non-intentional walks in 469 plate appearances) are both very disappointing.  His college and minor league track-record suggests that he should be able to eventually post much higher batting averages and his strike zone judgment has always been much better than he has shown this year.  Still, he is a rookie and rookies sometimes struggle.

And really, if a .445 slugging percentage is “struggling,” he is doing pretty well.  The most important thing is that Teixeira’s main asset, his power, has been very good this season.  He has 19 homers, 21 doubles and three triples in 418 at bats, which works out to a .201 Isolated Slugging Percentage (slugging percentage minus batting average).  That puts him in the same range as guys like Ryan Klesko, Edgar Martinez, Chipper Jones, Carlos Lee, Kevin Millar and Carlos Beltran.  For a rookie, that is some pretty good company.

As he gains more major league experience and becomes more comfortable as a hitter, I suspect his excellent plate discipline will return.  I also think his batting average will rise quite a bit, because Mark Teixeira is just not a .244 hitter.

Teixeira’s incredible potential has taken a slight hit this season, but he is still having a very solid rookie year and still projects as a very special hitter.

Gleeman long-term grade: A

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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