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Prospect Central: Volume Twenty One (2003)

By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at prospects who recently made their major league debuts.

DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF

Organization: Cincinnati Reds

Acquired:  Boston’s third round pick in 1996 draft; claimed off waivers by Cincinnati in 2003.

Bats: Left

DOB: 6-17-1978

It seems like Dernell Stenson has been around forever already.  He was Boston’s third round pick all the way back in 1996 and was on everyone’s prospect radar for the early portion of his pro career, before stalling in Triple-A recently.

After being drafted, Stenson moved along through the Boston organization pretty quickly.  He played in rookie-ball after signing in 1996 and then spent 1997 hitting .291/.400/.469 in Single-A.  He moved up to Double-A in 1998 and was named to the Eastern League All-Star Team, after hitting .257/.376/.446 with 24 homers in 138 games.  Just three seasons after being drafted in the third round, Stenson had already advanced to Double-A and was flashing some very nice power there.

And that’s sort of where the good stuff ends.  Since then, he has played a total of 465 Triple-A games, totaling over 1,700 Triple-A at bats.  As is often the case with a player who repeats a league over and over again without any sign of promotion to the majors, Stenson began to regress as a player.  He slugged .466 in 1999 and .487 in 2000, but then just .384 in 2001 and .383 last season – all while playing at Triple-A Pawtucket.

The Red Sox decided they had had enough with Stenson and they waived him, at which point the Reds decided to take a chance on him.  Lost in all the disappointment surrounding Stenson is the fact that he is still just 25 years old.  Sure, he had over 2,700 minor league at bats under his belt heading into this season, but he was still young enough where he could turn things around.  And, to Stenson’s credit, he has done just that this season.

After claiming him, the Reds sent him not to Triple-A, where he had been for four straight years, but to Double-A, where he hadn’t been since 1998.  Stenson responded by hitting .306/.371/.503 with 14 homers and 28 doubles in 101 games there.  The Reds promoted him to Triple-A and he hit just .237, but had a .542 slugging percentage in very limited playing time (57 at bats).

Stenson was called up to the majors when Russell Branyan went on the disabled list and, after eight years and nearly 900 games in the minor leagues, he made his major league debut on August 13th against the Diamondbacks.  Stenson pinch-hit in the ninth inning and flied out to left field against Arizona closer Matt Mantei.  Not the most memorable of debuts, but I’m sure it was pretty great for Stenson.  He got his first career start on August 16th and went 3-4 with two doubles while playing left field in place of Adam Dunn.

There is absolutely no reason why Dernell Stenson cannot be a valuable major league player, whether as a platoon first baseman/corner outfielder or as a bench player.  He’s never going to be anyone’s idea of a great player, but there are tons of players lying around the minor leagues who can contribute to a team if used correctly (in a platoon, off the bench, etc.), and Stenson is certainly one of them.

Gleeman long-term grade: C

NEAL COTTS – SP

Organization: Chicago White Sox

Acquired: Oakland’s second round pick in 2001 draft; traded to Chicago in Billy Koch/Keith Foulke deal in 2002.

Throws: Left

DOB: 3-25-1980

Neal Cotts is a forgotten man.  He was a very important piece in this off-season’s closer-swap that took place when the White Sox sent Keith Foulke to Oakland for Billy Koch, but his name was almost never mentioned in discussions of the trade.  He is also a forgotten man when discussions of best pitching prospects come up.  In both cases, he definitely deserves more recognition.

The Koch/Foulke swap has been nothing but a huge disaster for the White Sox this season.  Foulke is 8-1 with 30 saves and a 2.37 for Oakland and Koch has been awful all year (5.55 ERA), lost his closer job and is now on the disabled list.

Meanwhile, having flown completely under the radar at the time of the trade, Neal Cotts has emerged as one of the better left-handed pitching prospects in all of baseball.

Cotts racked up massive strikeout totals in Single-A last season (11.6/9 IP) but, because his “stuff” is not incredibly good, he was largely an afterthought and did not receive a lot of hype or attention.  He moved up to Double-A this season and is once again racking up huge strikeout numbers.

Prior to being called up, Cotts made 20 starts for Double-A Birmingham.  He was 9-6 with a 2.12 ERA and, most impressively, struck out 131 batters (11.1/9 IP) and limited hitters to an amazingly low .169 batting average.  A young pitcher’s strikeout rate is perhaps the best indicator of future success and it is rare for a lefty to post K rates as impressive as Cotts’.  In 310 career minor league innings, he has 387 strikeouts, or 11.2 per nine innings – an extraordinary rate.

In addition to the huge K rates, Cotts has also been extremely good at limiting homers, having given up just nine in those 310 career innings, including a very impressive two in 106 Double-A innings this season.

At this point, there are just two concerns with Cotts.  One is that his stuff is not overpowering and certainly does not match his incredible strikeout totals.  While this is a big issue with many people, I am a believer in performance over “tools,” so it is not a huge concern with me.

The other main issue is that his control is not very good.  Cotts walked 5.7 batters per nine innings last season and walked 4.8 per nine innings this year.  Now, it is certainly not surprising that a pitcher with great strikeout totals also struggles with control, and many pitchers as young as Cotts struggle with their control even without producing nearly as many strikeouts.  Still, walking more than a batter every other inning is a concern and, when the rest of your performance has been as good as Cotts’, it becomes the main concern.

Cotts control problems showed up during his major league debut.  After just 2.1 innings against the Angels, Cotts was yanked out of the game having walked six batters, including walking the bases loaded and then walking a run in during the third inning.  According to everything I have heard, the White Sox seem willing to stick with Cotts for at least another start or two to see if maybe he was just experiencing some serious jitters during his debut.

It may well have been nerves that doomed his first start, but I also think it is clear that Cotts is not ready for the major leagues yet.  First of all, he is only 23 years old and has a total of just 106 innings above Single-A under his belt.  In addition to that, a guy who is walking nearly five batters a game in Double-A is not a real good bet to have a whole lot of success in the major leagues.

Cotts is a fine prospect and a very underrated one too.  He’s also young, a little wild and incredibly inexperienced.  He’s got a bright future ahead of him, but there are a lot of things that could stop him before he gets there.  Stay away from him this season, but keep an eye on him in keeper leagues.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

JON ADKINS – SP

Organization: Chicago White Sox

Acquired: Oakland’s ninth round pick in 1998 draft; traded to Oakland for Ray Durham in 2002.

Throws: Right

DOB: 8-30-1977

There is at least one Jon Adkins in every major league organization.  He’s already a little old to be a prospect, his stuff isn’t great and his actual results are even worse, but the team keeps him around because...well, they need guys to pitch in Triple-A and who knows, he might turn into something at some point.

Adkins was a ninth round pick of the A’s in 1998 and gradually moved up through their system with mixed results and low strikeout rates.  After posting a 6.03 ERA in 97 Triple-A innings in 2002, the A’s sent him to the White Sox in the deadline deal that brought Ray Durham to Oakland.

Looking back on it now, it was really quite an incredible move by the A’s.  They gave up Adkins, a mediocre pitcher the likes of which can be found all over the place, and, in return, they got Ray Durham for the second half of last season.  Durham hit .274/.350/.457 down the stretch for the A’s, helping to lead them to the AL West title, and then hit .333/.391/.762 in their playoff loss to Minnesota.

A straight Adkins for half a season of Durham swap is a nice enough exchange for the A’s, but it gets even better.  After the season, the A’s offered Durham arbitration, which he promptly declined.  By doing so however, that meant the A’s were entitled to draft choices from whichever team Durham ended up signing with as a free agent. 

Durham eventually chose the Giants, with whom he signed a four year deal worth $27 million.  The A’s then received San Francisco’s first round selection (26th overall) and an additional supplemental first round pick (33rd overall).

In essence, Oakland traded Jon Adkins, a “Grade C” prospect if there ever was one, for a half season of Ray Durham and two first round picks, which they used to select Brian Snyder and Omar Quintanilla.  Any of those three players – Durham, Snyder, Quintanilla – would have been a great haul for Adkins, but the fact that they were able to turn him into all three borders on lunacy.  It’s just one of many things people point to when they talk about Billy Beane being one of the best General Managers in all of baseball.

Gleeman long-term grade: C-

J.J. PUTZ – RP

Organization: Seattle Mariners

Acquired: Seattle’s sixth round pick in 1999.

Throws: Right

DOB: 2-22-1977

Can you imagine how much grief J.J. Putz took about his last name during his adolescence?  I’ve got to guess that being 6’5” and a great baseball player kept him from getting thrown inside of his locker at least a few thousand times during his high school years alone.

I suppose you have to admire someone named “John Putz” who decides to call himself “J.J.” but does absolutely nothing to change his last name.  Officially, “Putz” is pronounced “Pootz,” but you try telling that to someone with a straight face.

Aside from having a very unique name, J.J. Putz is a pretty good pitcher.  The Mariners moved him to the bullpen full-time this season, after he spent all of the last three seasons as a starter.

With Putz now a reliever, the Mariners have quite a group of minor league relief prospects who are a little too old to be anything special, but quite intriguing anyway.  Along with Putz, they have Aaron Taylor (Prospect Central: Volume Four), Aaron Looper (Prospect Central: Volume Twenty) and Allen Simpson.  Actually, those four would make a pretty decent core of a bullpen, and that’s not even touching on the fact that the Mariners actual current bullpen is one of the best in baseball and that they also have a ton of great “real” pitching prospects in addition to those interesting “older” relief prospects.

Like Looper and Taylor, there is little reason why Putz couldn’t be a valuable member of a major league bullpen right now.  His stuff is very solid, his minor league track-record is good and he has been pitching very well in Triple-A for almost two years running.

In an organization without such a great major league bullpen (or such great minor league pitching depth), Putz would have probably been in the majors a while ago and would definitely have established himself as a major league pitcher by now.

For fantasy purposes, Putz doesn’t have much value.  He’s probably about 20th in line for the closer job in Seattle and even projecting him as a full-time middle reliever with the Mariners is iffy.  He seems like a good candidate to be trade-bait though, and if he changes teams he could get a shot in the bullpen or perhaps even be converted back into a starter.

Gleeman long-term grade: C

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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Aaron Gleeman analyzes minor league prospects exclusively in the Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com member area.

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