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2003 Prospect Central: Volume Fourteen

By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at five players who recently made their major league debuts.

CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates

Acquired: Pittsburgh’s 10th round pick in 1996 draft.

Bats: Left

DOB: 6-20-1978

Pittsburgh’s 10th round pick in 1996, Carlos Rivera has been an absolutely horrible minor league hitter for the majority of his career.  A first baseman, his slugging percentages in his first seven minor league stops were .410, .400, .392, .372, .477 and .408.  For a shortstop or a catcher, those are decent numbers.  For a first baseman, they are horrible.

Then, Rivera had a bit of a breakthrough season last year.  Repeating Double-A after hitting just .234/.258/.388 there in 2001, Rivera hit .302 and smacked 22 homers and 28 doubles – good for a solid .500 slugging percentage.  Despite the significant power development last year, Rivera still had a ton of problems with plate discipline and strike zone judgment.  He walked only 27 times in over 500 plate appearances and had a 75/27 K/BB ratio, which is very poor.  From 1996 to 2002, Rivera had a total of 107 walks and 396 strikeouts – far from acceptable numbers from a first baseman.

This year, Rivera has been able to hold onto his newly found power (he has 9 homers and 18 doubles in 262 ABs), but his average is back down to past levels and he continues to have absolutely no clue how to take four balls in the same plate appearance.  Rivera has walked a grand-total of 13 times in 72 games – and three of them were intentional.  His .300 on-base percentage is absolutely putrid for a 25 year old first baseman in the Pacific Coast League.

Rivera is a very nice defensive first baseman, but I don’t think his bat will ever be good enough to make him a viable major league starter.  He has had exactly two decent offensive seasons since 1996 and, although his power is showing signs of becoming an asset, his plate discipline and strike zone judgment are awful.

Interestingly enough, the man Rivera is filling in for with the Pirates, Randall Simon, is one of the biggest free-swingers in all of baseball.  Simon has just eight walks in 64 games this season and an amazingly low 54 walks in his 385 game career.  Simon is able to be a reasonably effective major league hitter because he consistently keeps his batting average near .300.  In fact, his career batting average – accumulated in over 1,200 at bats – is exactly .300. 

The Pirates don’t seem to mind Simon taking a walk once a month, so maybe they won’t have a problem with Rivera doing the same.  I don’t think Rivera will be able to be a .300 hitter in the major leagues though and, believe it or not, his minor league walk rates are considerably worse than even Simon’s were.

The Pirates released their long-time first baseman, Kevin Young, on the 28th.  This is a curious move considering Young and Simon had been platooning at first base this year and Simon is still on the disabled list.  It may mean Rivera gets the bulk of the playing time at first base until Simon returns, at which point Rivera is likely headed back to the minors, because, unlike Young, he hits left-handed and thus couldn’t platoon with Simon (also left-handed).

Gleeman long-term grade: C-

CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF

Organization: San Francisco Giants

Acquired: Signed by San Francisco as an un-drafted free agent from Dominican Republic in 1995.

Bats: Right

DOB: 11-30-1977

Carlos Valderrama, who was recently called up by the Giants when J.T. Snow went on the DL, is an underrated and intriguing prospect.

First, the bad news.  Valderrama has had a ton of injury problems over the years.  He was limited to just 41 games in 2002, 66 games in 1999 and seven games in 1998.  Partly because of the injuries, he is now 25 years old and, until the Giants called him up last week, had yet to play above Double-A.

Now, the good news.  Valderrama has a ton of raw “tools” and, unlike many toolsy outfielders, he has actually shown a real ability to put them to use.  He has tremendous speed and has stolen as many as 54 bases in a season.  In recent years, he has shown some very nice doubles power and even home run power in 2002.  And, what makes him particularly intriguing to me, is that Valderrama actually has shown decent plate discipline and strike zone judgment throughout his minor league career.

He has 53 walks in 143 career Double-A games, including 25 walks in 65 games at Double-A Norwich this season.  Because of his acceptable plate discipline and his relatively consistent ability to hit for solid batting averages, Valderrama has frequently posted very nice on-base percentages: .370 at Single-A in 2000, .379 at Double-A in 2001, .384 at Single-A in 2002, .375 at Double-A this year.

Valderrama is young enough that he can still be considered a prospect and his speed and defensively abilities, combined with his decent plate discipline and quality gap power, make him a very interesting player.  If he can stay healthy and continue to develop, he could definitely turn into a quality major league centerfielder or, at worst, a nice backup outfielder.

Gleeman long-term grade: C+

BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP

Organization: New York Yankees

Acquired: New York’s 34th round pick in 1998 draft.

Throws: Left

DOB: 5-1-1979

Brandon Claussen suffered a serious elbow injury last season and underwent Tommy John surgery mid-way through the year.  His recovery has been nothing short of extraordinary.  Not only is he back significantly ahead of schedule, he has been phenomenal in the minor leagues this season, showing absolutely no ill-effects from the injury.

A 34th round pick in 1998, Claussen is now the Yankees’ best prospect and, as is the case with every one of the New York’s top prospects, has been a part of just about every trade rumor this season.

In 10 minor league starts this year, Claussen is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and has a 53/8 strikeout/walk ratio in 62 1/3 innings pitched.  Not only has he regained his fastball velocity and not only is his K rate back up to a very good level, his control – never his strength – is suddenly tremendous.  Improvements in control immediately following TJ surgery is extremely rare and, in most cases, pitchers actually struggle with their “feel” for pitching initially and their control suffers significantly.  Not Claussen.  After walking 3.3 batters per game in 2001 and 4.5 per game last year, Claussen has walked just 1.1 batters per nine innings this year, which is amazing.

Claussen was a top prospect before the injury and his rapid and impressive comeback from the surgery only adds to his resume.  Yes, he now has an injury history, but there are many pitchers who have not only come back from TJ surgery, but who have become even better pitchers.  Claussen is well on-track to being one of those players and, in fact, he is well ahead of schedule 

If the Yankees go out and get a big-ticket item in the trade-market this year, you can almost bet Claussen will be involved.  If not, he will play a big role in the team’s future and should be able to step into one of New York’s open rotation spots full-time next season.

Claussen made his MLB debut last Saturday against the Mets and pitched very well.  He went 6 1/3 innings and gave up two runs (one earned) on eight hits, striking out five and walking just one.  He also picked up his first major league win.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP

Organization: Houston Astros

Acquired: Signed by Houston as un-drafted free agent out of Dominican Republic in 1996.

Throws: Right

DOB: 12-14-1977

Rodrigo Rosario has consistently had extremely good hit/inning ratios throughout his minor league career, despite mediocre strikeout rates.  While striking out only 6.5 batters per nine innings last year in Double-A, Rosario limited opponents to a .222 batting average.  The year before, while K’ing eight batters per game, opponents batted just .198 off him.  And once again, this year, Rosario was giving up far fewer than a hit per inning pitched in Triple, before he was called up to the Astros. 

While those are certainly positive signs for any pitcher, the fact that he has not been able to rack up large strikeout totals are discouraging, particularly because he has excellent “stuff.”  His K rates throughout his career are nothing more than “average,” which doesn’t bode well for his chances of becoming a star in the major leagues.

Rosario has had shoulder problems in the past and he left his second career major league start last Friday in the second inning because of a stiff shoulder.  Rosario is expected to miss his next start and was reportedly very sore the next day.  When a young pitcher has had shoulder problems in the past, any sign of a similar problem is a huge concern.  Hopefully, Rosario will miss just a start or two and come back, although, by that time, he may no longer be needed to fill-in in Houston’s rotation.

Long-term, I think Rosario is a nice prospect, assuming he can keep that shoulder healthy.  He has a great fastball that resides in the low-to-mid 90s and he has worked hard over the last couple years to improve his secondary pitches, and with positive results.  I liken his situation to another top pitching prospect, San Francisco’s Jerome Williams (Prospect Central: Volume Five) in that, like Williams, Rosario’s K rate does not match his raw “stuff” and it never has.  That doesn’t mean he can’t be a very good major league pitcher, but it doesn’t bode well for him (or Williams) becoming a star.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

DAVE MATRANGA – IF

Organization: Houston Astros

Acquired: Houston’s sixth round pick in 1998 draft.

Bats: Right

DOB: 1-8-1977

A sixth round pick out of Pepperdine in 1998, Dave Matranga has mixed in a couple of good seasons in his six year minor league career, all while one of his most important offensive skills rapidly deteriorated. 

Matranga made his pro-debut at Single-A in 1998 and was excellent.  He hit for average and power and stole bases.  He also showed tremendous plate discipline, walking 25 times in just 40 games.  From 1999 to 2000, he struggled, hitting just .231 and .233 in Single-A and Double-A.  His plate discipline went from great in 1998 to good in 1999 and then to “okay” in 2000.  Then, in 2001, he had a very good season, hitting .302/.391/.478 with 10 homers, 34 doubles and 17 steals.  However, his plate discipline continued to vanish. 

 The loss of plate discipline has continued for the past two seasons.  Take a look at Matranga’s walk rate:

At bats/walk

1998 – 5.8

1999 – 6.9

2000 – 7.8

2001 – 8.6

2002 – 11.1

2003 – 15.1

That is pretty amazing.  He has gone from being a very disciplined hitter to a complete hacker in the span of just six seasons.  Along with the loss of plate discipline has come lower on-base percentages.  His .316 OBP in Triple-A before getting called up to Houston this year was his career-low and that comes after posting just a .342 OBP last year.  Matranga’s prospect status has also vanished with the plate discipline and, while I would normally say he has a chance to become a decent backup infielder at the major league level, I am not so sure.

He no longer does anything particularly well.  He has hit above .275 just twice in six minor league seasons, he is no longer interested in taking walks and his power has never been especially impressive.  He is a good defensive second baseman and has experience playing shortstop, although he was moved to second in 2001.

Gleeman long-term grade: C-

Past subjects of Prospect Central who recently made their MLB debuts...

Aaron Heilman – Prospect Central: Volume Two

“Heilman is a very advanced and mature pitcher, with a strong build and good stuff.  He should be on a similar path to Rich Harden – starting the year in Triple-A and eventually making his MLB debut sometime around mid-season, before joining the rotation full-time in 2004.

The “ceiling” for Aaron Heilman isn’t quite as high as it is for some top pitching prospects, but he is much more likely to reach it than most.  He’s pretty much ready to be a major league pitcher right now and should eventually develop into a solid #2 or #3 starter, capable of giving a team bulk innings with a good ERA.”

Victor Martinez – Prospect Central: Volume Seven

“While there is an unusually large amount of quality catching prospects in the minors right now, none of them are as close to the majors as Victor Martinez.  Martinez is not young for a prospect (turns 25 in December) and could definitely be in the majors for good by the end of this season.

I will be shocked if Martinez isn’t Cleveland’s everyday catcher by next season.  Think Jorge Posada with a little less plate discipline and a little better batting average.

Gleeman long-term grade: A-”

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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