Mike Moustakas (3B - KC): Moustakas dreadful season continued on Sunday with another 0-3 that did include a walk. On the surface Moustakas has shown improvements in a few of his peripherals. He's cut down the strkeouts and improved his walk rate, but a horrific .188 BABIP appears to be holding him back. I say "appears" because he's actually popping up (17.6% infield fly ball rate) more often than he's hitting line drives (12.2% LD Rate) and his expected BABIP is only in the .230-.240 range. The big problem for Moustakas is he's posting a 50% FB Rate and his career HR/FB Rate is just 7%. He's hitting a whole lot of lazy fly balls which isn't an effective strategy as a hitter. If Moustakas had big raw power flowing through the swing we'd see more balls leave the yard and he'd hold some semblance of fantasy value, but without the HR's he needs to be a LD hitter in order to be an effective big-leaguer. He's lost right now and while the plate discipline improvements are real he'll need fly balls to travel further in order to reclaim the value we saw last season.
Matt Moore (SP - TB): How quickly a season can turn. Two starts ago Moore was 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA and a contender for the AL Cy Young award, but just two outings later he's now got a 3.78 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. Moore was rocked again, this time by the Orioles, as he allowed 8 ER's on 12 hits in just 5 innings of work. He did strike out 6 and only walked 1 but a 23.8% LD Rate allowed turned into a .550 BABIP on the afternoon. I've spent the last few weeks poo-poo-ing the "sell high" calls for Moore not because they weren't founded in good statistical research, but because Moore had a history of getting better as the season went on. After these two outings I'm wondering if my love for Matt Moore has clouded my judgment. His velocity is down a bit this year and as a result his swinging strike rates and chase rates are way down as well. With the command still shaky and the stuff less dominant it's easy to see why others were calling for a sell high. Frankly, I whiffed on this one. With that possibility now out the window for many owners (myself included) we have to assess what we have going forward. I still think Moore can be an effective mid-rotation fantasy starter but consistency will be a bit dependent on his command. He has a friendly matchup this week against KC at home which should help get him back on track, but my confidence is admittedly wavering.
Brett Gardner (OF - NYY): Gardner's strange fantasy season continued on Sunday as he delivered a 4-5 effort that included a 2B, RBI, and SB in the Yankees 2-1 win. The strong performance raised Gardner's 2013 line to .284/.349/.453 which would represent close to career lows in OBP and a definite career high in slugging %. Gardner's trading on-base ability for power and its apparent in a more aggressive approach at the plate. He's swinging at 41.8% of pitches overall (career average 34.8%) and he's posting a career worst 87.1% contact rate. As a result his strikeouts are up, his walks are down, but ISO is WAY up (.169, career average .112). From a baseball standpoint the result is a slightly more valuable offensive player but certainly a riskier one, but from a fantasy perspective Gardner's value is on the decline. Instead of being a 40+ SB threat the decreased OBP is pushing him closer to a 25 SB threat and the modest jump in HR's 5-6 probably isn't worth the 15-20 drop in SB's that fantasy owners drafted Gardner for. Given this appears to be a distinct change in approach it's difficult to envision Gardner reverting over the course of the season. He'll remain an adequate contributor as a #3-#4 fantasy OF, but his most valuable category is being compromised by the new approach.
Ben Zobrist (2B - TB): Zobrist got back on the right track on Sunday with a 1-2 effort that included a walk and his 4th HR of the season. Zobrist's power, or lack thereof, has been a big surprise this year as he's posted just a .126 ISO (career .177). Zobrist's plate discipline peripherals are all in-line with his career averages and his batted ball distribution isn't far off either. He's hitting 45% of the batted balls on the ground (career average 44%) so that's not the reason for the drop-off in power. It appears to simply be the result of a lower HR/FB Rate (4.3%, career 11.1%). Zobrist isn't hitting an unusual amount of infield fly-balls, but his average distance on fly-balls is lagging modestly his three year average. I still think over time the power will rebound and Zobrist's fantasy owners will be rewarded in the 2nd half, but there is some question as to whether the HR/FB Rate rebounds all the way to his career averages given the lagging fly-ball distance.
Shane Victorino (OF - BOS): Victorino sat out Sunday's game after tweaking his hamstring in his return from the DL on Saturday night. The Red Sox don't consider it a major issue but it is something for owners in weekly lineup settings to monitor on Monday. When Victorino has been healthy this season he's continued to show deterioration in his ISO. The .076 ISO he's posted this year is a career low and is alarming after the move to a better park for power. The drop in ISO isn't being driven solely by a low HR/FB Rate (5.3%, career 7.4%) as his XBH numbers across the board have dropped. He's still demonstrated strong plate discipline and good LD rates so when healthy his average and runs-scored should play up in the Red Sox strong lineup; but he's no longer a double-digit HR threat or a 20 SB threat, making him a weak OF option for those in traditional mixed leagues.
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