Before we get into today's Fantasy Fix, I have to give a HUGE shout out to fellow FIX co-author Drew Dinkmeyer who won last night's StarStreet PFBC Qualifier. With it he wins a free trip to the Playboy Mansion and will be one of 40 finalists competing for a $75,000 grand prize! Congratulations Drew.
Coincidentally, today's featured DFS site is StarStreet. Click HERE for a first time deposit bonus. Maybe you can join Drew at the Mansion!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: Keep an eye on: ATL-NYM, CLE-BOS.
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
Catcher
Top Play
Wilin Rosario (COL) - Despite being outside of Coors, Rosario makes today's top catcher play as he has a very favorable matchup against Barry Zito. In his short career Rosario has crushed LHP to the tune of a .321/.367/.661 batting line. For those of you doing the math at home, that's good for a .339 ISO. So Rosario has a ton of upside against Barry Zito who has allowed a .335 wOBA to RHB and is a bit fly ball risk with a GB rate just at 38.8%. He's nearly a must play on our featured site of the day, StarStreet, priced at only 4,800
Value Plays
Carlos Santana (CLE) - Santana is another catcher who hits LHP well. The switch hitter is clearly more comfortable from the right side of the plate as evidenced by his 1.25 EYE and .389 wOBA against LHP since 2011. With those numbers and in a favorable environment (Fenway Park), Santana is a near top play likely priced below Rosario.
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) - I know Lucroy has burned us in this spot before, but I can't get away from his numbers against LHP the last few years: .917 OPS in 232 PA's. Jeff Locke could struggle against the Brewers' RH heavy offense, and hopefully Lucroy will be a part of that.
Other cheaper options worth considering are Devin Mesoraco/Ryan Hanigan (CIN)at home against a LHP, Alex Avila/Victor Martinez (DET) against PJ Walters who struggles against LHB and AJ Ellis (LAD) who hits southpaws well.
First Base
The top plays are David Ortiz (BOS) and Prince Fielder (DET). Both of these mashers have favorable matchups. Ortiz, who hits lefties really well for a LHB, faces Scott Kazmir (.360 wOBA, 1.16 HR/9 allowed to LHB since 2010), and Fielder has a great matchup against PJ Walters (.361 wOBA, 1.53 HR/9 allowed to LHB).
Best Value Plays
Brandon Moss (OAK) - Moss strikes me as underpriced for a matchup against a RHP. Over the last two season he has compiled a .935 OPS with a .295 ISO against RHP, and he faces Lucas Harrell today who has allowed a .346 wOBA to LHB. Moss is a huge bargain on StarStreet, priced only at 4,500.
Mike Napoli (BOS) - Napoli has been cold lately resulting in him being heftily discounted on a lot of sites for a matchup against Scott Kazmir. There is a ton of upside here as Kazmir allows a .384 wOBA to RHB and a whopping 1.78 HR/9. Meanwhile, Napoli certainly has the power to take advantage of this with a team leading .245 ISO against LHP since 2011.
Value Play
Allen Craig (STL) - Craig came through big for the FIX last night, and he has another similar matchup that suits him well. He is facing a LHP (whom he hits really well - .628 SLG) who is extremely FB oriented (50.3 FB% to RHB). Again, Craig carries plenty of upside, but he's not quite as solid of a play as last night with Lilly's overall allowed wOBA to RHB being .298, much better than Capuano's.
Second Base
Top Play
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - Here's a guy I never seem to predict right, but I love him today. I just listed Kazmir's severe problems against RHB above in Napoli's blurb. That meshes well with Pedroia's dynamite skills against LHP (.408 wOBA). This game is tied for the highest total on the day at 9.
Value Plays
Ben Zobrist (TB) - I think Zobrist is slightly underpriced on some sites, and he hits LHP better than RHP with a solid .298/.370/.491 line since 2011.
Mark Ellis (LAD) - Ellis does not have a ton of upside but is a solid option. He will likely be hitting second for the Dodgers today as the Dodgers face John Gast who has a ZIPS projected rest of season ERA of 5.17. Ellis handles LHP well (.349 wOBA in last 307 PA's).
Rickie Weeks (MIL) - Weeks has no doubt been awful, but he's likely super cheap and as I said before I think Jeff Locke is in trouble today on the road against a RH heavy team. Weeks is decent enough against LHP (.339 wOBA since 2011).
If you are looking for a very cheap option, check out Ryan Roberts (TB). He hits LHP well (.345 wOBA, .182 ISO), should be in the lineup today and is likely priced very low on the site you are playing at (only 3,500 on StarStreet). He has 3B eligibility on some sites. Also, don't sleep on Jedd Gyorko (SD), who has been hitting LHP well, hitting in Arizona.
Shortstop
Top Play
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - Tulo is away from home but has a great matchup against Barry Zito. Tulo has a .911 OPS against LHP the last few seasons, and Zito has allowed a .335 wOBA to RHB since 2010.
Value Plays
Jean Segura (MIL) - Depending on what site you play, Segura's salary may be way too high or it may have settled in at a more reasonable level. I wouldn't play him over Tulo for the same price, but with a gap in salaries I may look Segura's way. It's not question by now that I think Jeff Locke struggles today, and Segura has shown an impressive power/speed combination so far this year.
Erick Aybar (LAA) - Aybar is definitely a step below the other two SS's listed above, but he's also likely a step below salary wise. He's a solid value play leading off against Jeremy Guthrie who has allowed a .353 wOBA to LHB, and Aybar's better side of the plate is the left side where he has a .292 BA.
Tampa Bay Splits Specialists
Sean Rodriguez/Yunel Escobar - Both Rodriguez and Escobar are likely cheap and hit LHP much better than RHP with wOBA's since 2011 of .352 and .331 respectively.
Another solid option is Jed Lowrie given Harrell's struggles against LHB.
Third Base
Top Plays
Aramis Ramirez (MIL) - Since 2011 Aramis Ramirez has a .397 wOBA and .260 ISO against LHP. He will likely be hitting cleanup today against LHP Jeff Locke who has allowed a .322 wOBA to RHB and 1.32 HR/9 thanks to a high 14.8 HR/FB rate that may get him in trouble today at Miller Park.
Evan Longoria (TB) - Longoria is extremely effective against LHP as indicated by his .407 wOBA against it since 2011. That wOBA is filled with a lot of power too as Longoria has a .290 ISO. Vidal Nuno may have a tough time with Tampa Bay's best players hitting better against RHB and then being complemented by some pesky splits guys.
Another option is Pablo Sandoval (SF). He is at home in his giant ballpark but hits RHP very well (.370 wOBA) while opposing pitcher Juan Nicasio certainly has his struggles against LHB (.351 wOBA, 1.61 HR/9 allowed. A cheaper option is Brett Lawrie (TOR) who is at home against the HR prone Freddy Garcia.
Outfield
Top Play
Ryan Braun (MIL) - If I like all of these other Brewers, it's no doubt that Braun is my top overall hitter of the day. Aside from distaste for Jeff Locke, Braun's numbers against LHP the last few seasons are absolutely unreal: 1.144 OPS. He has a 1.496 OPS at home against LHP this year and had a 1.403 OPS at home versus LHP last year. If I am squeezing in one hitter today, it is Braun. He is priced at 7,200 for the early slate on StarStreet, and there should be enough value plays elsewhere to make it work.
Other strong top plays a step below Braun are Jose Bautista, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Josh Hamilton and Alex Gordon.
Best Value Plays
Matt Kemp (LAD) - Kemp is way underpriced on some sites, particularly the ones that do not price for splits. Facing rookie southpaw John Gast, look for Kemp to have a good day as he has dominated LHP to the tune of a .343/.429/.634 line since 2011.
Jonny Gomes (BOS) - Once again I am picking on Scott Kazmir, and I will have multiple Boston players in my lineup given that the weather holds up. Gomes as we've stated in this space before is just a masher when it comes to facing LHP. Since 2011 Gomes has accumulated 364 PA's against southpaws, and the result is an impressive .899 OPS. He is really cheap on StarStreet, priced at just 4,000.
Value Plays
Andy Dirks (DET) - With Austin Jackson out, Dirks has found himself hitting leadoff against RHP. That makes him extremely valuable today as the Tigers are likely to put up a handful of runs facing PJ Walters. The individual pitcher-batter matchup is also favorable for Dirks as he hits RHP much better than LHP, and Walters has allowed a large .361 wOBA to LHB.
Carlos Quentin (SD) - Quentin has a lot of upside today hitting in Arizona versus his usual spacious digs at Petco Park. Quentin has a .910 OPS against LHP since 2011 and faces Wade Miley today (.324 wOBA allowed to RHB).
Chris Denorfia (SD) - I like Denorfia for the same reasons I like Quentin. He brings less power to the table than Quentin (.171 ISO compared to Quentin's .233 mark) but overall has a really solid .386 wOBA against LHP. Denorfia is only 3,700 on StarStreet.
Melky Cabrera (TOR) - Cabrera has a solid matchup today hitting leadoff at home against Freddy Garcia who has allowed a .347 wOBA and 1.28 HR/9 to LHB since 2010.
Seth Smith (OAK) - Smith is another Oakland guy I like to use often against RHP as long as his price is down. I talked about opposing pitcher Lucas Harrell's struggles against LHB earlier, and Smith is in position to take advantage of those with a .360 wOBA and .844 OPS against RHP since 2011.
Starting Pitcher
Top Tier
Jake Peavy (CHW) - Peavy is a really strong choice today. He is the second biggest favorite on the day and is facing a Marlins offense that is dead last in MLB with a .264 wOBA against RHP. That mark is so far away from the rest of the teams that it is laughable. I also love my strikeouts in daily fantasy, and Peavy posted solid K%'s in each of the past two seasons (20.2% and 22%). He has taken it to another level so far this year with a 28.4 K%.
Other top plays include Felix Hernandez, Homer Bailey and Matt Moore.
Value Plays
Doug Fister (DET) - I think Fister is a really safe option today. For starters, he is by far the biggest favorite on the day with a -240 line that puts him in a good position to grab those fantasy points for a win. And, as I mentioned yesterday when I wrote up Anibal Sanchez's blurb, the Twins have struck out the 8th most against RHP this year with a 21.6% mark, and overall they have just a .309 wOBA against RHP which ranks 20th. Fister has shown really solid skills for the third year in a row, and this year they include career bests in K/BB ratio (4.78) and GB% (56.7%).
Dan Haren (WAS) - Haren is a guy I'd probably only use on 3 SP sites. He hasn't been very good this year but he is facing a Phillies team that is second last in MLB against RHP with a .289 wOBA and are now without Chase Utley. It's also not as if Haren is devoid of a skill; he does have a 4.5 K/BB ratio. Haren is favored and has a decent chance at a win.
There are a lot of ways you could go with it, but I think Homer Bailey and Doug Fister make for a nice combination on StarStreet.
Check out some of the big DFS Baseball Contests going on tonight:
Sign up on DraftStreet and enter tomorrow's $109 Qualifier for their Baseball Championship which has a $400,000 prize pool.
FanDuel is running a $109 Qualifier tonight for the Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. The Qualifier winner gets a trip to Las Vegas and a shot at a $200,000 grand prize.
Check out DailyJoust's daily Qualifiers for their $50,000 SuperJoust.
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