Today's Featured DFS site is Fan Throwdown. Click HERE for a first time deposit bonus!
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather: Danger Zone: Dodgers at Braves, Keep an Eye On: Rays at Orioles, Astros at Pirates
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
Catcher
Top Play
Carlos Santana (CLE) - Joe Saunders' .362 wOBA allowed to RHB is the worst mark allowed to RHB of any SP in action today. He also allows a lot of power numbers to RHB (1.31 HR/9, .485 SLG). Santana has been an awesome hitter from the right side of the plate, posting a .392 wOBA, .200 ISO and impressive 1.22 EYE against LHP since the beginning of 2011.
I don't usually play Buster Posey against RHP as I find he is often overrated in these matchups, but with a date against Tyler Chatwood (.338 wOBA allowed to RHB, 1.14 HR/9) he is definitely worthy of consideration today.
Value Plays
Alex Avila (DET) - Justin Grimm has had his problems this year. He has been prone to giving up the long ball (1.34 HR/9) and has an ERA of 4.28 that ZIPS expects to be at 5.77 for the rest of the season. Avila has hit for solid power the last few years against RHP (.197 ISO) with a solid triple slash of .276/.376/.472. This game also shares the highest Over/Under of the day at 9.5; the game takes place in Texas' usually high scoring environment.
Chris Iannetta (LAA) - Iannetta is a high upside cheap play today. He has flashed plus power against LHP with a .226 ISO in his last 205 PA's with a solid EYE of 1. He faces Hector Santiago who is a pretty solid overall pitcher but does allow a whopping 1.76 HR/9 to RHB.
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - Montero has been a disappointing FIX recommendation in the past, but if you need salary cap relief on a site - he is just so cheap! He's out of his favorable home park and in Miami, but he does face a rookie pitcher in Tom Koehler who has a ZIPS projected rest of season ERA over 5 and has a 5.13 xFIP against LHB in 12 IP this season. Montero historically does well against RHP with an OPS since 2011 of .840.
On Fan Throwdown (FTD), for early games, Santana (8200) is a top play if you can squeeze him in, but look Iannetta's way (4200) if you need cap relief. For the late games, both Avila (5200) and Montero (4200) are solid value plays.
First Base
Top Plays
Chris Davis (BAL) - Davis has a superb matchup today at home in a game with an over/under of 9.5. He is facing Roberto Hernandez who has allowed a .341 wOBA to LHB with just a 12.3 K%. Davis leads the Orioles with a .225 ISO against RHP since 2011. He's been locked in this year with a career best .55 EYE and career best FB rate that allows him to take advantage of his elite HR/FB rates.
Prince Fielder (DET) - Fielder has an elite matchup today. As mentioned in Avila's blurb, this game has a high total and Justin Grimm has been struggling and is expected to continue to struggle. Fielder absolutely mashes RHP to the tune of a 1.016 OPS since 2011.
Joey Votto (CIN) - Votto is an extremely safe option today. He has a career .421 wOBA against RHP, and he faces Kyle Kendrick who has allowed a .338 wOBA to LHB, including 1.23 HR/9.
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) - Rizzo might be a good way to sneak in top play upside at a slightly lower price than the other three suggestions. He has the best matchup as opposing pitcher Jeremy Hefner has been atrocious against LHB. Hefner has allowed a whopping .385 wOBA to LHB including 1.74 HR/9 which has led to a 6.24 ERA.
Value Plays
Ike Davis (NYM) - Davis is a nice cap relief play at first base for early slate games. He is batting cleanup against Scott Feldman who has a career 4.68 ERA. Davis has shown massive power against RHP with a .254 ISO and 34 HR in 605 PA's from 2011-present. There might be safer options out there, but Davis' upside for his price is certainly intriguing. Perhaps he has a solid day today and staves off those demotion talks.
Ryan Howard (PHI) - Howard is another high upside cheaper play. He has a .249 ISO against RHP since 2011, and that kind of power should play well against Bronson Arroyo who has yielded a .504 SLG to LHB including 1.82 HR/9, the worst such mark on the day.
Brandon Moss (OAK) - You know the drill by now. Moss against RHP = solid play for the right price. Moss currently has a .373 wOBA against RHP, showing that last year's .419 mark was not a fluke. Overall, between the two years, Moss has stroked 24 homers in just 353 PA's against RHP. I like opposing pitcher Ervin Santana, but he has given up 1.35 HR/9 to LHB since 2010, which suits Moss' game.
Paul Konerko (CHW) - The other three value play guys may have more of a boom or bust feel to them, but I think Konerko is a bit safer. He is facing Joe Blanton who seems to get hit hard every time out. Blanton has allowed a .343 wOBA and 1.46 HR/9 to RHB since 2010, while Konerko has a .854 OPS against RHP since 2010 which leads the White Sox.
Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher are also high upside plays against Joe Saunders who could be in trouble in Cleveland. Brandon Belt has a really good matchup, but his price has really been on the rise lately. David Ortiz, a rare lefty who doesn't have trouble with LHP, may be worth paying up for against Scott Diamond's reverse splits.
For early slate games on FTD, I think it is tough to ignore Votto at 7300, priced a tier below the top options, but Konerko (5700) and Howard (5500) are also value play options. For the evening slate, I'm not enamored with Fielder's or Moss's price so if you need some cap space, Lance Berkman at 5700 isn't a bad play even against a good pitcher in a game in Texas with a high total.
Second Base
Robinson Cano is the top 2B play of the day as he is almost day and always will be whenever at home facing a RHP. Dustin Pedroia is second on the list. He hits .338/.431/.510 against LHP and faces Scott Diamond.
Value Plays
Chase Utley (PHI) - Utley is a higher priced value play, but on some sites he should still be worth playing in a matchup against Bronson Arroyo (.363 wOBA, 1.82 HR/9 allowed to LHB) that offers a ton of upside. Utley has an .862 OPS and .368 wOBA against RHP since 2011, and he has seen his power against righties return this year (.241 ISO) as he appears to be fully healthy.
Dustin Ackley (SEA) - Ackley is tremendously cheap on a lot of sites so he should provide great value. He is hitting second today against Zach McAllister who has been good this year but has a ZIPS projected rest of season ERA of 5.20. His splits against LHB today are middle of the pack relative to the other starting pitchers.
Kelly Johnson (TB) - Johnson had a big game last night, and I think he has a chance at a lot of success tonight as well facing Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens is making his season debut at the MLB level. He has not had a lot of success against LHB since 2010 allowing a .362 wOBA and posting a 4.98 xFIP. That likely won't improve pitching in Camden Yards against an AL East team. Kelly Johnson's .189 ISO against RHP since 2011 is really good for a 2B.
Ben Zobrist (TB) - I like Zobrist for all the reasons I like Kelly Johnson except he is more talented (.351 wOBA against RHP since 2011), although you will have to pay for that extra talent. Keep in mind this game has a high total (9.5)
I also like Danny Espinosa who has a .346 wOBA against LHP and faces Eric Stults tonight who has allowed a .327 wOBA to RHB.
All my selections at 2B are early slate games on FTD. I think I am either paying for Utley (7500) here or saving cap space and using a very cheap Ackley (3500). For the late slate, Josh Rutledge (6400) is priced okay for a home game at Coors, and Matt Carpenter (6700) is also playable leading off against a RHP.
Shortstop
Value Plays
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) - I've already mentioned opposing pitcher Joe Saunders awful marks against RHB. That alone makes Cabrera worthy of consideration. I also like that Cabrera has a .335 wOBA from both sides of the plate, which means he still has a good chance of success once the game gets into the bullpen.
Mike Aviles (CLE) - Aviles has the same solid matchup as Asdrubal Cabrera, but he is likely cheaper on most sites. Aviles hits LHP well posting a .284/.322/.472 batting line in his last 297 PA's against LHP.
Andrelton Simmons (ATL) - Simmons is moderately priced on most sites and should be in a good position to succeed today. He will likely be leading off against Chris Capuano who has allowed a .341 wOBA to RHB. Simmons doesn't have great offensive skills, but if you don't like many SS options he's a good play due to price, opposing pitcher and lineup spot.
Also, if you have the cap space, any time Troy Tulowitzki is at home he may be worth spending on due to the weakness of the rest of the SS position. I'm not a particularly big fan of Brandon Crawford's offensive skills, but he is facing Tyler Chatwood (.382 wOBA allowed to LHB) in Coors Field.
On FTD I will probably play Mike Aviles (5800) for early slate games and then pay up for Troy Tulowitzki (8900) for the night games unless I really can't afford it, in which case it will be Simmons (6200) or Crawford (5900).
Third Base
Top Play
Pablo Sandoval (SF) - Sandoval is my top 3B today. He is hitting in Coors Field against Tyler Chatwood who has allowed a huge .382 wOBA to LHB. Sandoval has a solid .373 wOBA against RHP including a .223 ISO; both marks lead the Giants since 2011.
Value Plays
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - Middlebrooks is really cheap on some sites, and while he has struggled this year, his impressive .224 ISO against LHP should not go unnoticed on a day when he is facing Scott Diamond.
Luis Valbuena (CHC) - Valbuena is really succeeding in a platoon role this season, hitting .278/.375/.500 against RHP. Today he has a really good opportunity to put those platoon splits on display against Jeremy Hefner who is absolutely awful against LHB.
Valbuena at 5500 looks to be a good value play for the early slate on FTD, and I'll probably lock in the Panda at 7900 for evening games.
Outfield
Top Plays
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) - McCutchen absolutely crushes LHP, posting a .426 wOBA against it with a huge .284 ISO. Today he faces Erik Bedard who allows a .337 wOBA to RHB and 1.31 HR/9.
Justin Upton (ATL) - I think Chris Capuano is a really good matchup for Justin Upton and his HR upside. Capuano yields 1.32 HR/9 to RHB thanks to a high 42 FB%. Upton has a .393 wOBA and big .255 ISO against LHP since 2011.
Value Plays
Jay Bruce (CIN) - Bruce is still somewhat underpriced on a lot of sites, and he has a favorable matchup today against Kyle Kendrick who yields a .338 wOBA and 1.23 HR/9 to LHB. Bruce has a .229 ISO against RHP, and while I usually reserve playing him for at home, this is a solid matchup.
Mike Baxter/Lucas Duda (NYM) - Baxter (.342 wOBA against RHP) and Duda (.359 wOBA against RHP) are two under the radar splits plays who could find success today against the underwhelming Scott Feldman. Baxter is leading off, and Duda is hitting fifth.
David Dejesus/Nate Schierholtz (CHC) - Another superb splits duo in the Mets-Cubs game is Dejesus (.359 wOBA against RHP) and Schierholtz (.353 wOBA against RHP). They actually have a better matchup than Baxter/Duda, as Hefner has allowed a whopping .385 wOBA and 1.74 HR/9 to LHB.
Matt Joyce (TB) - There's a reason we continue to tout Matt Joyce against RHP - he has an .841 OPS off of it since 2011. Today in a favorable hitting environment (Camden Yards) with a high total (9.5), Joyce is a solid play against Jair Jurrjens (.290/.363/.473 line allowed to LHB since 2010).
Nick Markakis (BAL) - It's clear by now that I like my LHB in this Orioles-Rays game, and Markakis is no exception. He is facing Roberto Hernandez who has a 4.98 ERA and .341 wOBA allowed against LHB. Markakis has a .350 wOBA against RHP since 2011.
Hunter Pence (SF) - Pence isn't a splits play as this is a R/R matchup. However, it is in Coors Field which is certainly an exponentially better offensive park than Pence's current home park. Pence also does not show negative splits against RHP as he has a .347 wOBA against RHP since 2011 and is facing Tyler Chatwood who has a 4.82 ERA against RHB.
Jonny Gomes (BOS) - Gomes is another splits specialist on the list as he hits southpaws really well, posting a .285/.402/.505 OPS against LHP since 2011.
Colby Rasmus (TOR) - Rasmus is a cheap high upside play today. His main asset is his power, and in Yankee Stadium with the short porch in right, maybe he can put that on display. It sure doesn't hurt that opposing pitcher David Phelps is giving up 1.54 HR/9 to LHB.
On FTD, Bruce (5700), Melky Cabrera (5900) and Matt Joyce (6700) are all really solid value plays. In the evening I really like Gomes (4800) for cap relief and McCutchen as an affordable stud (8200).
Starting Pitcher
Top Plays
AJ Burnett (PIT) - Burnett has been awesome this year both on the surface (2.73 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) and peripherally (2.38 FIP, 55 GB%, 31.6 K%). This makes him almost a must start against Houston's whiff happy offense. They currently rank first in MLB with a K% of 27% against RHP.
Lance Lynn (STL) - I really like Lance Lynn at home against a heavy RH Brewers' lineup. Lynn has dominated RHB for his career (.257 wOBA allowed, 29.4 K%), and the only regular LHB in the Brewers' lineup is Norichika Aoki. Also, consider that Lynn's career home ERA of 2.87 is absolutely stellar (4.07 on the road).
Value Plays
Ervin Santana (KC) - I like Santana as a value play in a big ballpark. The weakest part of his game is his propensity to give up long balls (career 1.23 HR/9). When he's not giving up HR, his solid 2.51 K/BB ratio makes him a solid option, and that number has been stellar this year (6.50).
Brandon McCarthy (ARZ) - This is a good start for two reasons. First of all, McCarthy moves from an unfriendly park towards pitchers (Chase Field has a 1.12 park factor according to parkfactors.com) to a friendly one in Miami (.86 park factor). Secondly, the Marlins are terrible. They has a .266 collective team wOBA against RHP that is by far the worst in MLB.
The pitching options FTD for the early slate are really disappointing as none of my suggested plays are eligible. I will probably take a strong look at Zach McAllister who should have a solid shot at a win, has okay K rates (career 19.3 K%) and faces a Mariners team that is 23rd in MLB against RHP (.303 wOBA). For the evening slate, I will play either Burnett (13200) or Lynn (12800).
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