Jered Weaver (SP - LAA): Weaver had a scary moment on Sunday night when his non-pitching arm reacted awkwardly to a line drive back up the box. Weaver immediately left the game and went for X-Rays which were negative. The Angels diagnosed Weaver with an elbow strain and it's unclear at this point if he'll be able to pitch through the injury or if he'll need to miss time. This makes a difficult decision for fantasy owners with Weaver scheduled to face the Astros in his next start and one that the upside of the Astros start probably warrants taking the chance in weekly lineups on a potential missed start. Prior to the injury Weaver had allowed 5 ER's on 7 hits and 4 BB's over 5 innings. He struck out just 2 and his average FB velocity was 85.6 mph. This is consistent with his first outing and 2 mph down from last year's velocity, which was 2 mph below 2011's velocity. The rapid dip in velocity is a big concern for Weaver's effectiveness going forward. Last year we saw a dip in Weaver's K% and his swinging strike rate along with the velocity dip and so far this year the K% has taken another step backwards. I noted my personal concerns about Weaver heading into the season and so far I've seen little reason for optimism. Weaver's profile (high Fly Ball Rate, working on deception) always dealt with a thin margin for error and with Weaver having lost 4 mph on his average fastball in the last two years you have to wonder if that thin margin has eroded.
CC Sabathia (SP - NYY): Sabathia rebounded from a shaky opening day outing to toss 7 shutout innings against the Tigers on Sunday. Sabathia's velocity, a big topic of conversation in the first outing, was a bit better as he worked with an average fastball of 90.8 mph (89.7 mph in the 1st outing). While much of the conversation has centered around CC's velocity the last two years, I find it interesting that his K% has actually risen the last two years with his velocity declining. Part of the reason is as CC's velocity has dropped he's compensated by throwing more offspeed pitches and generating more swinging strikes. To this point, the gradual decline in velocity hasn't had an impact on CC's effectiveness, but research suggests at some point it will. While CC's start on Sunday was encouraging because of the results and the slight velocity bump there were still some concerns. Sabathia generated just a 33% GB Rate, marking the 2nd consecutive start his GB Rate has been below 35%. In addition he struck out just 14.2% of the batters faced, giving him consecutive starts with his K% below 19% and consecutive starts with his BB Rate above 10%. The truth is while the results were an improvement on Sunday, the indicators still left plenty of room for improvement. If it weren't for a .190 BABIP and a 100% LOB%, Sabathia could've easily had a 2nd challenging start to begin the season. Sabathia has a history of starting slow (4.18 career March/April ERA), including an elevated BB Rate (8.7% BB%, career 7.3% BB%), so there's no reason to panic just yet, but the early indicators are even worse than Sabathia's typical April struggles.
R.A. Dickey (SP - TOR): R.A. Dickey was roughed up for the 2nd consecutive outing, this time by the Red Sox. Dickey allowed 7 ER's on 10 hits and 2 BB's over just 4 2/3 innings. He did strike out 5, but command of the knuckleball continued to be a problem. Dickey threw just 59% of his knuckleballs for strikes and perhaps most concerning had problems keeping the ball on the ground. Over the last three years Dickey has posted GB Rates of 55.1%, 50.8%, and 46.1%, while on Sunday that number dipped to 42.1%. In his first outing Dickey was able to keep the ball on the ground (57.9%) but issues with walks and an elevated HR/FB Rate did him in. In this one another 25+% HR/FB Rate resulted in exaggerated problems but the root of his problems came from a reduced GB Rate. In Dickey's first two starts a hefty HR/FB Rate has exaggerated the results, but the bigger issue is the inconsistency in each of the core peripherals. In one start it was command and in another it was ground-balls. It's difficult to guess where things will go from here with Dickey, but one indicator that suggests a repeat of 2012 might be difficult is the fact that he's struck out 14.8% and 19.2% of batters faced in the first two outings. Last year much of Dickey's growth as a fantasy asset came from a surge to a career high 24.8% K%. Dickey had just 9 starts all of last year (of 33) that he posted a K% below 20%. This year he already has two.
Justin Morneau (1B - MIN): Morneau continued his strong start to the season with a gift 2 RBI 2B on a pop-up that fell between Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold in the OF. Sunday's performance pushed his early season line to .364/.462/.455 and perhaps the most encouraging thing about the performance is we're seeing Morneau regain command of the strike zone. These are clearly very small samples but Morneau's chase rate is back down to 28% (last 2 years of 34.8% and 38.3%, career 31.2%) and his BB Rate has spiked back up accordingly. He's walked in 15.4% of his PA's to start the year a number that is actually greater than his peak seasons when he walked at a 12-14% clip. Along with the improved command of the strike zone, Morneau is striking out less and his contact rate has jumped back up to the low 80%'s where it resided during his peak years. We don't want to draw too many conclusions from one week's worth of plate appearances, but the signs we do have to evaluate are encouraging. Perhaps Morneau is finally past the concussion issues and ready to resume what was once a sparkling career.
Justin Masterson (SP - CLE): Masterson was masterful on Sunday as he tossed 7 shutout innings against the Rays. Masterson worked efficiently and consistently from ahead as he threw 16 first pitch strikes to the 25 batters he faced and perhaps most impressively he handled the left-handed bats. The LHB's went 2-14 with 1 BB and 5 K's against Masterson and if he's that effective against LHB's you can pretty much guarantee that Masterson is going to have a strong performance. Masterson has moments during the season when he's able to put these performances together, but I wouldn't weight it too heavily in how to treat him going forward. His current 9.0 K/9 is a bit over-stated considering his swinging strike rate is below the 8% rate he posted last season when he put up a 6.94 K/9. Masterson's next outing will come against a White Sox lineup that sports just two regular LHB's. While I'm not a long-term believer in Masterson I do think rolling him out for another spot-start is a viable strategy. Just be prepared to jettison him (or better yet try to sell high), because Masterson's delivery will never allow him to consistently get out LHB's.
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