Josh Hamilton (OF - LAA): Hamilton's slow start to the season continued on Sunday with an 0-4 that included 2 strikeouts. He's now down to .219/.267/.323 on the season. Hamilton is posting a career worst 4.8% BB Rate and 27.6% K Rate that is supported by an ugly 45% chase rate and 17.1% swinging strike rate. The chase rate is in line with last year but the swinging strike rate is actually a mild improvement as Hamilton posted an enormous 20% swinging strike rate last year. The fact Hamilton's peripherals were so shaky last year and the performance was so strong makes it difficult to assess Hamilton going forward. When you look at Hamilton's peripherals some of the names that pop up as similar last year were Carlos Peguero, Matt LaPorta, Brandon Snyder, Rick Ankiel, and a whole lot of pitchers. It's unusual to see a hitter be able to maintain any level of success let alone MVP caliber success with those kind of peripherals. With Hamilton floundering to start this season and him seeing a steep drop-off in production in the 2nd half last season (.259/.323/.510) the question is how much longer can Hamilton be the exception to the rule that is able to produce at an elite level with such horrid peripherals? I struggle to find the answer to it and as a result I didn't draft Hamilton in any leagues this year. It's hard to know just how this season will end but we have seen older players with weak peripherals rebound after an atrocious first month. Look to Hamilton's teammate Albert Pujols for an example. I'm less optimistic for Hamilton's outlook going forward and as a result I'm not aggressively making buy-low offers on an asset I struggle to value. If you do own Hamilton I personally would consider selling for 90 cents on the original draft price, but I'd have a hard time just giving him away. In most cases you're just going to have to try to ride it out.
Jose Bautista (OF - TOR): It's been a weird start to the season for Jose Bautista as he's seen a recovery in his ISO but a corresponding drop in his zone command and contact skills. Bautista is chasing a career high 26% of pitches outside the zone and his contact rate at 78.7% is the worst it's been in over five years. In addition Bautista's 44.2% GB Rate is the highest it has been in the last five years as well (career average 38.7%). All those are signs of age-related decline and at 32 going on 33 it's not surprising to see Bautista showing some signs of deterioration. The big question is how is his ISO recovering with an increased GB Rate and fewer balls in play? A 30+% HR/FB Rate is the answer behind Bautista's early season power success. On the positive side Bautista's .192 average is the result of a .152 BABIP that is due for correction (career .267 BABIP), suggesting the batting average should drive closer to the .250-.270 mark as his BABIP regresses.
Adam Lind (1B - TOR): Lind returned from paternity leave on Sunday to go 1-3 with a walk and an RBI. The walk has become a staple of Lind's early season performance as he's posted a .250/.404/.318 line that looks nothing like Adam Lind's career .265/.318/.457 line that is light on walks and heavy on power. Lind has cut his chase rate from a career 31.6% to a career best 21.8%. Along with the improvement in zone command he's held some of the gains he made in his contact rates last year when he posted an 84.3% contact rate. The result is a rather eye popping 2.75 EYE thanks to a 20% BB Rate and just a 7.5% K Rate. When Lind has made contact he's struggled to drive the ball (career low 13.2% LD Rate), instead hitting a ton of fly balls (44.7% FB Rate, career 38%) which so far have yet to leave the yard (0.0% HR/FB Rate). Lind possesses a career 14.7% HR/FB Rate which if Lind was able to maintain so far he'd have 2.5 HR's. The performance to start the season is a bit shocking given Lind's history so it's hard to imagine what is coming next, but only 11 players in all of baseball had a BB:K (EYE) rate above 1.00 last year in over 140 PA's and the list of that 11 is loaded with fantasy superstars: Jose Reyes, Chipper Jones, Joey Votto, Ryan Hanigan, Carlos Lee, David Ortiz, John Jaso, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, and Chase Utley. As a result I think Lind is worth pursuing as a strong buy-low target in deep leagues.
Nate McLouth (OF - BAL): Is everyone aware of what the heck is going on with Nate McLouth? McLouth is currently a Top 30 player on ESPN's Player Rater in what might be the quietest strong start to the season going. He added 4 more hits on Sunday with 4 more runs scored and a SB. He's now hitting .351/.455/.486 on the season with 21 Runs scored and 8 SB's in 22 games. McLouth's cut his already stingy plate discipline down to an incredible 17% chase rate while posting a career best 90.7% contact rate. The result is a 1.75 EYE that includes a 16.7% BB Rate and 9.5% K Rate. When he hits the ball it's been with authority as evidenced by his 26% LD rate that has translated into a .385 BABIP. It's sort of ridiculous to say but all of McLouth's peripherals support the incredible start to the season. McLouth has been a 20-20 player in the past and while his power totals may never challenge 20 HR's again he's reinvented himself as an elite contact/LD hitter who can more effectively use his legs once on base. He should be 100% owned given the strong start and I'm starting to believe he's a legitimate starting OF in all formats, something I would've only believed for deep leagues going into the season.
James Loney (1B - TB): James Loney went 0-5 on Sunday which dropped his 2013 line to .349/.414/.508, a line that is more indicative of Prince Fielder than James Loney. Loney's indicators have been really solid as he's cut his chase rate down to 23% (career 28%) and posted a career best 90.8% contact rate. The improved zone command has led to a career high 10% BB Rate and when Loney has made contact he's done so with authority. Loney's produced a gaudy 33.3% LD Rate and the additional LD's have almost come exclusively from his ground balls. Loney always struggles with too many ground balls and as a result way too little power for a prototypical 1B (career .138 ISO) but this year his .172 ISO is pretty compelling for the 1B. A .420 BABIP is certainly driving a big part of the production but given the 33% LD Rate it's actually not that out of line. Now Loney's unlikely to maintain this performance going forward (he's a career .284/.341/.422 hitter) but the peripherals do support a jump in production. Coming into the season I doubted whether Loney even had deep league value as a power-less 1B with deteriorating plate discipline, but at 28 (almost 29) he appears to have resurrected his career. Loney should be owned in all leagues 14 teams and deeper and is worth riding the hot streak on in 12 team mixed leagues.
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