Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Important Note: There is a game at 6:35 (Oakland at Boston) tonight, which some sites are counting (and thus have a 6:35 roster lock time) and others are not (and thus have the normal 7:05 start time). More sites seemed to take the latter route, so I did not include Boston and Oakland guys in my write ups, but did make a note about Doubront.
Weather Note:
Danger Zone - Atlanta at Colorado and Miami at Minnesota both look to be in serious jeopardy.
Everything else looks pretty safe at the moment.
Twitter:
If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
Catchers
Best Value Plays
Matt Wieters (BAL) - Wieters' price is starting to adjust upwards, but it's still not where it should be, especially for a home matchup against a LHP. Since 2011 Wieters has a .435 wOBA against LHP hitting .335/.420/.599. Today he faces JA Happ who has allowed a .345 wOBA and 1.21 HR/9 to RHB the last few years.
Buster Posey (SF) - Posey is in a similar boat as Wieters. His price is moving upwards but it's still down enough to take advantage of. As I pointed out the last time Posey faced a lefty, he hits for most of his power against southpaws with an ISO around 2.5 times greater than against RHP. Overall, Posey has a 1.117 OPS against LHP since 2011. He is facing Wade Miley who is okay against RHB. For that reason and the ballpark not being as hitter favorable, I prefer Wieters if their price is even.
Devin Mesoraco (CIN) - Mesoraco should see increased playing time the next few weeks with Ryan Hanigan hitting the DL. He'll have a good matchup today at home against Travis Wood. Wood allows RHB to elevate the ball against him quite a bit (22.3 LD%, 47.2 FB%) which won't play well in Cincinnati. Mesoraco, who in a limited sample of 58 PA's has hit LHP well (.888 OPS), hopefully will be able to take advantage.
If you are looking for real cheap plays at catcher, I suggest Rob Brantly facing Kevin Correia or Welington Castillo against Mike Leake in Cincinnati. Chris Iannetta is a good GPP play facing off against Derek Holland who has allowed 1.45 HR/9 to RHB since 2010.
First Base
Top Plays
Albert Pujols (LAA) - Pujols has a huge .307 ISO against LHP the past couple of seasons, and today he goes up against Derek Holland who is not terrible but does allow power numbers to RHB. Holland has yielded 1.45 HR/9 to RHB since 2010. Consider Pujols on sites where he is not priced as a top 1B.
Lance Berkman (TEX) - The last few years Berkman has been much better from the left side of the plate, posting a .987 OPS against RHP since 2011. Today he faces Joe Blanton who has been extremely vulnerable to LHB, allowing a .351 wOBA and 1.39 HR/9.
Value Plays
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) - Rizzo is hitting in a very positive hitting environment in Cincinnati and faces Mike Leake who has been really bad against LHB allowing a .342 wOBA and 1.30 HR/9. On sites with stricter pricing where it's difficult to pay up for Pujols or Berkman, Rizzo may be my choice.
Mitch Moreland (TEX) - Moreland is very cheap on some sites, and he's not a bad play to save cap room given Blanton's poor numbers against LHB which I posted in Berkman's blurb. Moreland has hit for adequate power against RHP (.190 ISO). I'd like him better if this game was at home but he's still an okay play on sites where he is real cheap.
Second Base
Best Value Plays
Howie Kendrick (LAA) - Sifting through the 2B, Kendrick stuck out to me the most. He's priced fairly cheaply on most sites and gets a favorable matchup against Derek Holland who I've already mentioned has a propensity to give up long balls to RHB. Kendrick has hit over .300 against LHP since 2011.
Neil Walker (PIT) - We've stated in this space before that Walker is much, much better against RHP than LHP. Today he will likely face RHP Jonathan Pettibone. I expect Pettibone to struggle in his MLB debut as he doesn't have very high K rates in the minors and since being promoted to AAA he has walked more than a batter every other inning over 9 starts.
Cheap Play
Dustin Ackley (SEA) - I don't blame you if you choose to bypass this option as Ackley has been dreadful to start the season. However, he is dirt cheap because of it and facing Brad Peacock who the ZIPS projection system has pegged for a rest of season ERA of over 6.
Shortstop
Value Plays
JJ Hardy (BAL) - Hardy is underpriced when he is at home and facing a LHP, and today he gets JA Happ who doesn't exactly intimidate. Hardy and his .813 OPS against LHP since 2011 is a solid value play on almost every site facing JA Happ (.345 wOBA allowed to RHB) in Camden Yards.
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - This play is more about price than matchup as Rollins is still priced in the middle of the SS position. He has a .343 wOBA against RHP and that doesn't factor in his speed game at all. If I recall correctly, opposing pitcher AJ Burnett isn't very adept at holding runners either. And while Burnett is off to a great start, he still has allowed a .337 wOBA to LHB since 2010.
Andrelton Simmons (ATL) - I'll take anyone from the Braves today in Coors depending on price, and that includes Simmons although his spot in the lineup could affect his value. The Braves are facing Jeff Francis who has allowed a .358 wOBA to RHB the last several years.
If you have the room...
Troy Tulowtizki (COL) - Tulowitzki has been on fire and is clearly the best SS so if you have the room it's hard not to use the extra cap space on him. He faces Mike Minor who is a quality pitcher, but Tulo has a .256 ISO against LHP. Also, Minor allows a lot of balls in the air to RHB which should give Tulo a chance to hit for power in Coors today.
Third Base
Value Plays
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - Call me stubborn, but I am going to continue to trot Beltre out there on the sites where he is not yet priced as a top 5 3B. He's away from his friendly home park today but is facing Joe Blanton who has served up a whopping 1.46 HR/9 to RHB since 2010.
Brett Lawrie (TOR) - Lawrie has not done too much damage since being activated off of the DL, and his price is really falling on some sites because of it. With that in mind, I like him as a value play in Camden Yards against Chris Tillman who has allowed RHB to post a .331 wOBA and hit 1.53 HR/9.
Chris Johnson (ATL) - RHB versus Jeff Francis in Coors and likely hitting fifth. There's not much more to say, just make sure the price is reasonable.
If you want to pick on Pettibone making his MLB debut, Pedro Alvarez is priced very cheaply on some sites. Evan Longoria hits lefties extremely well and has a very solid history against CC Sabathia.
Outfield
Top Play
Justin Upton (ATL) - Upton is off to a super hot start, and if you are playing on a site with looser pricing he's a guy I am making sure I play. He is hitting in Coors against a lefty (career .904 OPS against LHP), and that lefty is Jeff Francis who has the worst wOBA and ERA allowed to RHB of any pitcher in action today.
Value Plays
BJ Upton (ATL) - See the notes right above on his brother. BJ doesn't hit quite as well as his brother (.324 wOBA against LHP) but runs more and still should provide plenty of value leading off against Francis. It also doesn't hurt that his price is a loooot cheaper on most sites.
Mike Morse (SEA) - Morse hits RHP really well for a RHB posting a .373 wOBA and .229 ISO against RHP since 2011. Today he faces Brad Peacock who I've already discussed is not expected to fare well over the course of the season. On top of that he has allowed a whopping 64% FB rate to RHB. That is just in a 10 inning sample so don't go overboard reading into it, but it does bode well for Morse' power game.
Norichika Aoki (MIL) - Aoki is a phenomenal play on sites that don't price for splits and sites where the batter's individual performance is weighed more heavily (so sites where RBI/RS are downplayed) as I like him to reach base multiple times today. For his career, Aoki has a .356 wOBA against RHP, and he is facing Jason Marquis whose .389 wOBA allowed to LHB since 2010 is the worst of any pitcher against any batter handedness today.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) - Stanton is off to a horrid start, but I'm not concerned. All this does is create an opportunity for us daily fantasy players as his price is way down. I'd take him almost regardless of matchup until it corrects itself, but today's matchup is solid too. He faces Kevin Correia who has allowed a .344 wOBA and 1.28 HR/9 to RHB since 2010.
Travis Snider (PIT) - So far this season, there are some encouraging signs from Travis Snider including an increased EYE (.35 to .64) and ISO (.128 to .167). However, he is yet to hit a HR which has helped keep his price low. I like him as a cheap value play today if he hits second (as he has versus RHP) against Jonathan Pettibone who is making his MLB debut.
Unfortunately the Atlanta guys listed above may be useless as the game looks like it could get postponed, so here are alternatives: Some other cheap guys I like depending on what lineups look like are Nolan Reimold and Steve Pearce who both hit lefties well and are at home against JA Happ. Domonic Brown does not have a great matchup but is looking really underpiced to me. Raul Ibanez could make for a sneaky cheap play if he is hitting 6th today against Brad Peacock. Leonys Martin doesn't hit high in the order, but anyone at the right price is worth a play against Joe Blanton. On that same note David Murphy hits RHP well and is real cheap on some sites. If Reed Johnson starts for ATL and the game is played, he has handled LHP well over his career and the game is in Coors field.
Other notes: At the right price don't be afraid to take LHB for the Twins as opposing pitcher Ricky Nolasco is allowing a .348 wOBA to LHB. If you are on a site where the OAK-BOS game counts, Felix Doubront struggles against RHB so some A's may make good plays hitting in Fenway Park, which is much more favorable than their home park.
Starting Pitcher
Must Play
Felix Hernandez (SEA) - Since Felix's velocity has dropped I've been guilty of underestimating him, but the results continue to be there - particularly with strikeouts. Felix has 28 K's in 28.2 IP this season, and today he faces an Astros team that is striking out a league leading 25.8% of the time against RHP. I will probably be taking Felix everywhere tonight and using cheaper value hitting plays to allow me to do so.
Value Plays
Justin Masterson (CLE) - The White Sox have struggled against RHP so far this season which makes sense seeing as how they are heavily right handed. Meanwhile, Justin Masterson owns RHB allowing just a .278 wOBA since 2010 which is elite. Last time out against the White Sox, Masterson spun a complete game shutout with 7 K's. I'm not setting the bar that high today, but the matchup suits his skills against the White Sox weaknesses well.
Kyle Lohse (MIL) - Lohse is another guy I seem to consistently underrate, but on paper today against the Padres in San Diego, this is looking like a very safe start. I like him on sites where you use multiple SP's. The Padres enter today ranked 27th in MLB with a .292 wOBA against RHP. Those numbers were compiled without Chase Headley, but even with him having a remarkable year last year the Padres finished 28th in MLB.
Daily Game Links: Draft Street |FantasyFeud |Fan Duel |DraftDay | Star Street | Daily Joust
Join the DailyFantasy Fix Distribution list for daily emails.
