Toronto Blue Jays
How to Approach Brandon Morrow
Brandon Morrow SP - After three straight years of vastly underperforming surface stats based on expected ERA stats, Morrow actually outperformed his expected ERA stats by quite a bit last season. In 125 IP, Morrow posted a 2.96 ERA despite a 3.65 FIP and 4.03 xFIP. Morrow sacrificed some dominance last year (K% dropped 4.7 points) in order to be less wild (BB% dropped .8 points) and less FB risky (GB% grew 5.1 points). While on the surface this tradeoff appears to have worked out, Morrow was aided by a BABIP 40 points below his career mark despite allowing more ground balls (generally have a higher BABIP than fly balls) and having a LD rate right in line with his career mark. Prior to last year, Morrow posted 3 straight seasons with a K/9 greater than 10, so he always comes with a fair amount of upside. However, due to last year's fluky surface stats, he most likely will not be as undervalued in drafts making the less than durable SP a risky investment. We are calling for a 3.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 144 K's in 187 IP.
Speedy Emilio
Emilio Bonifacio 2B/OF - Our projections software notes that Bonifacio was "was on a stolen base tear - 30 for 33- in 64 games" last year before having injury problems. Bonifacio is in the prime of his career (27 YO) and has seen his plate discipline gradually get better since his rookie year in 2008 with his EYE growing from .30 to .48 over that span. He's made solid contact over the course of his career (54.1 GB%) and keeps the ball on the ground (2.16 career GB/FB ratio) which should allow him to at least match his .267 career BA and offers some upside beyond it. With this profile, hitting in the Blue Jays' lineup (even if it is out of the 9th spot) and given the speed Bonifacio showed early last year, there is plenty of upside if you are in need of a speed MI late in drafts (there is very little upside at MI outside of the top 10). Bonifacio will however need to show he is healthy and have the opportunity to capitalize on this upside, though. Maicer Izturis may win the starting 2B job, which would force Bonifacio into a utility role. He should still play a decent amount even so, but this would obviously keep him from playing every day. For those of you in leagues where 20 games played the previous season is needed for positional eligibility, please be aware that Bonifacio will only begin the year with OF eligibility.
Tampa Bay Rays
Zo-Rilla
Ben Zobrist 2B/SS/OF - Zobrist is a valuable fantasy commodity due to his consistency and positional flexibility. Each of the past two seasons Zobrist has hit .270 with 20 homers and posted ISO's just North of .200. There's no reason not to expect more of the same this year, and Zobrist is actually a little safer than he was at this point in 2012. That is because he saw his EYE rise from .60 to .94 and posted a career high 21.8 LD rate, which should leave drafters feeling more confident. The other nice thing about Zobrist is he is eligible at 2B, SS and OF, which gives owners some flexibility - always a valuable asset when injuries inevitably hit. The only negatives with Zobrist is his ceiling is probably capped as his age (31-32) probably limits any chances of repeating his 2009 year, and his SB success rate of just 61% last season likely means that his SB output this year either stays the same or decreases.
If He Can Stay Healthy...
Luke Scott DH - The problem with Luke Scott the past couple of seasons has been his inability to stay healthy, appearing in only 64 games in 2011 and 96 games last year. At age 34, the health issues are unlikely to get any better. However, Scott still has a great power profile when he is in the lineup. As we state in the projections software, he could hit 20-25 HR even with less than 500 AB's if he's healthy. Scott consistently generates loft with a FB% of over 40% in 6 straight seasons, and he has the raw power to get those fly balls over the fence, posting a career HR/FB rate of 15.3% that is not showing signs of decline. Despite the power, Scott still only is worthy of a pick late in drafts in deep mixed leagues and AL leagues. As stated before, the number of at bats you will get from him is certainly up in the air, with the over/under, in my opinion, around 300. Also, in most leagues Scott is only eligible at utility which will make it tough for fantasy owners to properly utilize him.
Kansas City Royals
Speed at Short
Alcides Escobar SS - Alcides Escobar had a pretty nice fantasy season for himself last year, producing at career best levels across the board in his third full season. In particular, he saw his BA rise from .255 to .293 and his SB rise from 26 to 35. Despite the improvements and his age (26), we don't expect Escobar's 2013 season to be more valuable. The main reason for this is expected BA regression. While Escobar always had upside beyond the .235 and .255 BA's he posted in 2010-2011 based on his good LD rates, he is not truly a .290's hitter. His singles average last season of .292 was well above the .223 and .242 marks he posted the previous two seasons. With Escobar's extra base hit ability stagnant (.098 ISO last year, .091 ISO for career), his BA is heavily tied in with his singles average so when that inevitably regresses in 2013 so will his overall BA. Our .270 projected BA does a good job of calculating that regression while also taking into account that his BA's the first two seasons always had upside to them. The one place where our projections notes say Escobar has upside is in the SB category, as they point out that Escobar stole 23 bags in 26 attempts over the second half, meaning he could swipe 40-50 if given more of a green light this year.
Expect More Power From Gordon
Alex Gordon OF - Gordon disappointingly dropped down from 23 HR in 2011 to 14 last year, which along with a drop of 7 stolen bases really put a damper on his fantasy value. While I'm not sure we see him recoup any of that lost value in the speed department, I do expect his power to return a little bit. Gordon maintained good patience posting a double digit walk rate so his power did not wane because of over aggressiveness. It did dip some as a result of a reduced FB rate (fell almost 6 points), but at least half of that drop came at the expense of line drives which A-can sometimes be homers themselves and B-represent hard contact which can lead to a better HR/FB rate. The latter did not happen as Gordon's HR/FB rate was only 8.5%, a 33% decrease in his rate from the previous season. Given Gordon's high LD rate, his age (29) and his past 3 year's HR/FB rates (12/11.3/12.6) I strongly expect the HR/FB rate to normalize. That in it of itself could get Gordon back to 20 HR as that's exactly what a 12 HR/FB rate and the same amount of fly balls will get him. Also, keep in mind that last year's low FB rate was a career low and represents a floor. I'm a little more bullish than our software projection here and expect Gordon to hit 20 homers this season.
Around the League
Late Round 1B Upside
Yonder Alonso 1B (SD) - I don't think Alonso has huge-huge upside given his lack of raw power, but he does offer a unique combination of safe production and some upside at a very late point in drafts. He posted a double digit walk rate last year to go with an 83.7% contact rate. He also smoked the ball with a 23.7 LD rate and super low 2.8 pop up rate. With these skills, the fences moving in and Alonso maturing (25 YO), we like him to post a .281-22-7-78-3 line that may be more optimistic than most other sites, but I actually feel it is pretty safe aside from maybe a little downside in HR's.
Brandon Belt 1B (SF) - I have a feeling that I am going to end up with a lot of Brandon Belt in my deep leagues this season. The former top prospect showed a lot of potential last year, even if it did not materialize into a lot of success with his fantasy stats. Entering his age 24 season I believe it will start to. Belt's EYE grew from .35 to .51 with both his K and BB rates improving. He also consistently made really hard contact posting a whopping 25.6 LD rate and a very low pop up rate of 4.4%. This gives me a lot of hope that his extremely low 6.2% HR/FB rate could be on the rise and dramatically so. He also posted a .211 ISO against lefties which is encouraging, and I have to believe the lack of power against RHP was somewhat anomalous. Belt can be had at a pretty low price on draft day, and I encourage subscribers to pick him up if that is the case in their respective drafts.
Pitcher Notes
Casey Kelly SP (SD) - If you are in a dynasty or keeper league that drafts minor leaguers or prospects, please remove Kelly from your list. Kelly is currently seeking a second opinion on a damaged elbow but all signs point towards him receiving TJ surgery.
Tim Lincecum SP (SF) - Got into a fun discussion regarding Tim Lincecum's 2012 season yesterday. While I think Lincecum bounces back this year, his velocity will be key (early Spring reports have been positive). Lincecum was a bit unlucky last year (ERA 1.36 points higher than xFIP), but it's dangerous to assume his bad season was driven by bad luck - it was driven by poor skills and exacerbated by some bad luck. You are opening yourself up to a lot of risk if you enter 2013 treating Lincecum as a guy who was unlucky and regression is a given. For starters, while his BABIP and HR/FB rate were worse than his career norms, it's tough to solely, or even primarily, chalk this up to luck as Lincecum gave up a career worst 23.8 LD% (his career mark is 19.8 and only once in his entire career did he post a rate higher than 20 (20.8%)). A high line drive rate correlates with a higher BABIP and higher HR/FB rate. The latter was abnormally high and had a lot to do with bad luck, but it's tough to have not expected it to be higher than his career mark. And it's almost impossible to call the BABIP luck related. There were only 6 qualified SP's who gave up a higher LD rate than Lincecum last year, and their average BABIP was .306. I think that LD rate, in conjunction with a couple of other signs show that Lincecum's drop in velocity was almost certainly a factor. His K% dropped for the third consecutive season, falling 3 points than 1.4 points each of the last two years. His BB% increased for the third consecutive season, rising by 1 point, .9 points and finally 1.3 points last season. Also, with the reduced velocity Lincecum's changeup went from highly effective to highly defective, with hitters posting an .814 OPS off of it compared to their career mark of .498. After giving up 7 homers off of his changeup over his career entering last year (2,579 pitches), Lincecum gave up 5 homers in 2013 (526 pitches). His usage of the changeup was consistent with what it had been for the rest of his career. The optimism for Lincecum comes from his ability to still generate swings and misses (hitters did not make contact, when swinging, at a rate any higher than they had in any previous years off of Lincecum). If he can regain his velocity, and confidence along with it, Lincecum will likely be able to stop nit picking (42.4 zone % last 2 years, 50% first 3 years of career) which will lead to a higher K% and lower LD rates. He found himself in too many hitter's counts last year that resulted in either a walk or a hard hit ball. Our software projects Lincecum to post a 3.82 ERA and 1.33 WHIP along with 230 K's, which is a good way to approach him this draft season. Expecting that line will keep you from recklessly investing in Lincecum too early (although it may prevent you from getting him in a few drafts), but it is just aggressive enough to where it will enable you to still land him in some drafts and have a chance at some good profit potential.
Casey Janssen RP (TOR) - According to the Toronto Blue Jays' MLB.com writer (Gregor Chisolm), Janssen might not be ready for Opening Day. If that's the case, Sergio Santos would begin the year as closer. I went into more detail about it in my blog post from a few weeks ago, but if this is the case I strongly feel that Santos, depending on how much time Janssen misses, could keep the closer's gig if he gets off to a hot start. He is more built like your prototypical closer, and the Jays planned on him being their closer for a few years when they traded for him in the offseason prior to the 2012 season.
Cliff Lee SP (PHI) - One of the nice things about our player charts on Fantistics.com is the ability to quickly see where a player may be undervalued. In the case of Cliff Lee, you can see that based on his number of quality starts, he was expected to have around 14 wins but only ended up with 6 actual wins. This is primarily the result of bad luck and the gap may put forward the perception that Lee is less valuable than he actually is, which creates an opportunity for you. Not surprisingly, we project Lee's actual wins this year to be 14.
Yu Darvish SP (TEX) - We are expecting a decent sized drop in ERA for Yu Darvish heading into his second MLB season for a couple of reasons. First of all, his impressive 27.8 K% (7.3 points higher than league average) should have led to a higher Left On Base % than 70.5. If Darvish pitches the exact same way next year, just based on better fortune he should strand more runners which obviously will lead to less runs allowed. Secondly, despite a 4.26 ERA in the season's second half (that was more than his first half ERA), Darvish actually showed a strong improvement as he got acclimated to the league. Both his K rate and BB rate improved over the second half, leading to an impressive 2.80 FIP and 3.29 xFIP. If Darvish can replicate that over a full season this year, along with a more fortunate strand rate, he will be a top 10 SP.
Jordan Zimmermann SP (WAS) - Look for Zimmermann's ERA to be on the rise next year. While he is a good pitcher (3.56 K/BB ratio, 3.51 FIP), he isn't elite like his sub-3.00 2012 ERA suggests. The main reason for this is an unsustainable LOB% of 79.3%. That number is high based both on Zimmermann's league average K rate and career LOB% of 74.7%, which is inflated with last year's numbers representing much of that figure. An ERA in the mid-3's is much more likely, which is still good but you need to draft accordingly.
