Freddie Freeman (1B-ATL)- Freeman returned to the starting lineup on Tuesday night after getting the day off on Monday and went 2-for-4 with a double, a strikeout and two RBI. Freeman managed to raise his slash line to .195/.233/.244, but he is still without a home run in 43 plate appearance so far. What has been troubling about Freeman's slow start has been his increased strikeout rate. His .295 BABIP and 22.2 percent line drive rate prove that he has not been unlucky with balls in play, and that his 32.2 percent strike out rate has been the main factor in his low batting average. Freeman's swinging strike rate is up to 15.7 percent for the season, and he is chasing a few more pitches out of the strike zone (38.8 percent). Once he regains plate discipline, his power numbers should improve.
Johan Santana (SP-NYM)- Santana delivered his first clunker of the season on Tuesday night against the Braves. He saw his record drop to 0-2 after allowing six runs (four earned) on four hits and one walk in 1.1 innings pitched. He did not record a strikeout and saw his ERA increase to 3.97. It was a strange game for Santana, who only threw seven change-ups in the start. Despite the hiccup, I have been impressed with Santana, considering he is coming back from major shoulder surgery. He averaged 88.8 mph on his fastball last night (highest of the year), and he has a swinging strike rate of 12.6 percent so far along with his best ground ball rate in two seasons (40.6 percent). Not surprisingly, Santana has thrown fewer pitches out of the strike zone. Whether that has been to a lack of command or intentionally staying on the corners, I expect his walk rate to improve as he gets through the season. He still needs to display better stamina, but it hasn't been a bad start to the season.
Heath Bell (RP-MIA)- Bell recorded his first save of the season last night against the Cubs. He worked a 1-2-3 ninth inning throwing eight pitches and recording a strikeout. It has been a terrible start to the season for Bell, who is now 1-for-3 in save opportunities. As with most pitchers this season, his velocity is down for the season (average of 93.1 mph compared to 94 last season). However, he did average 94.6 last night. What is more troubling is that his swinging strike rate is down to 4.9 percent. Hitters have stayed away from chasing his curveball out of the strike zone since last season, and that seems to be a recurring trend in 2012. He will probably finish with a 3.30 to 3.60 ERA for the season and a decent amount of saves, but his days of being an elite reliever are gone.
Jay Bruce (RF-CIN)- Bruce went hitless with a strikeout in four at-bats against the Cardinals yesterday and saw his slash line drop to .186/.213/.442 for the season. Bruce is one of the streakiest hitters in baseball, but he has only produced a 4.3 percent walk rate to begin the season. While the walk rate is troubling, pitchers will not continue to have a 75 percent first pitch strike rate against him. He isn't chasing more pitches out of the strike zone. Bruce has yet to hit the ball hard consistently (11 percent line drive rate), but it is great to see his home run power there even though he has yet to get in a groove. I'm not worried about him in the slightest, and I think he will surpass his home run total from last season with a slash line around .260/.335/.485.
Chad Billingsley (SP-LAD)- Billingsley did not earn a decision last night against the Brewers, but he did deliver his third straight quality start to begin the season. He allowed two runs on five hits (one home run) and no walks while striking out two in six innings of work. His record remains at 2-0 and he has an impressive ERA of 1.33 to start the season. Billingsley's improved control has helped him begin this season on such an impressive note. His 0.44 BB/9 is minuscule. While he is throwing the same amount of pitches within the strike zone, his first pitch strike percentage is up to 68.5 percent (a career best), and he is getting more hitters to chase out of the zone (33 percent chase rate). In addition, Billingsley has changed his overall approach. He is throwing more change-ups (9.7 percent), and has incorporated his slider (a pitch he didn't throw in 2011) at the expense of his cutter, which has dropped from 22.3 percent to 7.9 percent. Furthermore, his strikeout rate should be higher considering he has a swinging strike rate of 11.2 percent (7.6 percent in 2011).
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