Scott Downs RP (LAA) - In his first day as the Angels' closer (with the role temporarily being removed from Jordan Walden's hands), Downs worked a perfect 9th inning to record his first save of the year. Downs struck out 1 and recorded 2 ground ball outs. Downs' skills include above average control (BB% of 7.1% currently, previous 3 years: 6.5/5.8/6.9) and an extreme ability to generate ground balls (65.2% current GB%, previous 3 years: 55.7/57.8/63). So far this season Downs has been able to beat his xFIP by posting a 0 HR/FB%. Despite having a career HR/FB% of 12.2% (which has left his career ERA and xFIP very similar), there is some hope that Downs can beat his xFIP as he has done so the past two seasons by posting HR/FB rates of 6 and 8.3. The only negative in Downs' game is a subpar ability to generate strikeouts, although this can be a problem for closers in certain situations. His K% has been on the steady decline since 2009: 21.5/19.9/16.1/10.7. I suspect we get a sub-3 ERA out of Downs, but with his declining K rates I highly doubt last season's 1.34 ERA repeats itself. It will be interesting to see just how temporary this switch in roles with Walden is should Downs continue to succeed in save opportunities.
Curtis Granderson OF (NYY) - Granderson was 2-4 with a homer as well as 2 RBI's and 2 RS yesterday. For his career, Granderson has an OPS of just .685 against left handed pitching (.895 against righties). So, a big part of his breakout year last season was conquering lefties, and Granderson did so to the tune of a .944 OPS, actually better than what he did against righties. I think it is important early on to gauge how Granderson hits lefties as it will probably dictate how much his numbers fall off following his career year (likely to at least be some regression). It is a small sample size, but the early returns show Granderson's OPS against lefties at .671, which is right in line with his career mark. The OBP is actually the same against righties, but Granderson has shown no power against lefties this season (.296). It's early so this is not overly concerning, but with Granderson's early fantasy numbers looking good I may look to shop him as the left handed splits could be a flag of a deeper fall off from last season than originally predicted, particularly when you consider Eric's note from the other day about Granderson potentially stealing less bases.
Nick Swisher OF (NYY) - Swisher is off to a hot start to the season, batting .288 after yesterday's 2-4 performance in which he belted his 5th and 6th homers of the year. Swisher entered the game with a pretty absurd .276 ISO so it will be interesting to see just how it rises after yesterday's power output. Swisher's early season power can be attributed to a more aggressive approach. His swing% is up 4 percentage points from his career mark, and his swinging strike percentage is up 3.5 percentage points. As a result, Swisher is walking less (not surprisingly) but has managed to maintain his contact rate. Most importantly, the aggressive swings have allowed Swisher to generate more loft on his swing than he did a year ago when his GB:FB ratio was more or less 1:1. This season Swisher has a FB% of 47.5% that threatens his career high, while the GB% is down to 32.8%. The new approach is working for Swisher and fantasy owners a like, and he should challenge for 30 homers as he did 2009-2010 when he finished with 29 each season.
Jake Peavy SP (CHW) - Peavy was outstanding again yesterday allowing just 1 ER in a complete game in which he struck out 7 and walked just 1. Despite the extremely strong K and BB rates early on (24.8 K%, 3.8 BB%), I'm selling high on Peavy for a few reasons. The first reason is health. Since (and including) 2009, Peavy has never thrown more than 111 innings; he currently has thrown about a third of that thus far this season. Secondly, Peavy's BB% of 3.8% is extremely favorable, but I'm not sure it lasts. His career BB% is double that. Thirdly, Peavy has been getting away with being very FB risky early on this year. He had just a 25.7 GB% entering yesterday's game, and in yesterday's game he posted a GB% of 20.8%. Somehow he has managed to yield just 1 HR so far this season, but that certainly will not last. Peavy is a health risk who will likely face some regression in both his BB and HR/FB rates moving forward. That, along with his name recognition as a former ace, makes him a prime sell high candidate.
Jon Lester SP (BOS) - Lester lowered his ERA to 4.65 with a very strong outing yesterday. He struck 7 and walked just 1, and he also recorded 9 ground ball outs compared to 5 fly ball outs. Lester's peripherals early on are a bit ugly as his K, BB and GB rates are all worse than his career marks, but given that his velocity and repertoire remain very similar to past years I am not overly concerned. It does look like the days of K'ing a batter an inning are over, though. Here are Lester's swinging strike rates the past 6 seasons: 8.8/8/11.1/10.3/8.7/8.4. 2009-10 certainly look like outliers unlikely to be repeated, and as a result we have to move Lester's ceiling from a top 10 SP to a top 20 SP.
