John Axford RP (MLW) - We had John Axford as a top 10 closer in the preseason, and after a rocky start Axford is making good on our prediction. He locked down his 15th save of the year yesterday by pitching a scoreless ninth inning in which he struck out two. Overall, Axford's K/9 is at an elite level of 12.30, and he even has a good GB% of 48.6%. Owners should expect Axford's ERA to continue dropping. His actual ERA is 3.42, but his FIP is all the way down at 2.18. Axford has been very unlucky on balls in play, and his current BABIP of .371 should drop leading to fewer hits and ultimately fewer runs allowed.
Matt Kemp OF (LAD) - Kemp had a huge game yesterday, blasting 2 homeruns, and he is well on his way towards a 30/30 season. In 59 games, he already has 15 homers and 14 steals. Kemp has stolen 30+ bases before, but he has never hit 30+ homers. There's no reason to not think that this is the year, though. At age 26, Kemp is entering his peak power years, and his power has been consistently trending upwards. Here are his HR totals the past three seasons: 18/26/28. Here is his ISO the past 4 seasons (including 2011): .168/.193/.201/.258. Here are his HR/FB%'s over the same time period: 12.3/14.4/16.2/22.1. Given Kemp's age and his consistently upward trending power, I think we can determine his early power outbreak so far in 2011 is not a fluke and should expect it to continue.
Jhoulys Chacin SP (COL) - Chacin earned his 6th victory of the year last night. His K/9 have fallen quite a bit this season (from 9.04 to 7.41), but Chacin has made up for it with improved control (BB/9 down to 3.30 from 4) and a lot more ground balls (GB% up to 59.3 from 46.6). Still, I think Chacin may be a sell high candidate. For starters, if you look at his minor league K rates it's really not surprising to see his K/9 have dropped thus far this season. Secondly, a 13 point increase in GB% is extremely sizeable from one year to the next, and while I think there may be a legitimate improvement in that department, I don't know if it's that big. Look for the GB% to trail off some. And finally, Chacin has benefited from a .229 BABIP, which is very lucky and is sure to rise from here on out.
Domonic Brown OF (PHI) - Through his first 12 games the rookie Brown is exhibiting some very good peripherals that bode well for his fantasy stock this season. He is striking out just 13.2% of the time, and that is supported by a chase rate below the league average and a stellar 4.5 swinging strike percentage. These numbers haven't been the result of weak contact as Brown has an okay 17.6 LD% and is generating good loft (47.1 FB%), which have led to 5 of Brown's 11 hits going for extra bases. Brown's K rate is sure to rise some, but the combination of a high contact rate while maintaining power is a very good early sign.
Ian Desmond SS (WAS) - At the beginning of May, I noted that Desmond should be turning things around. Well, Desmond has actually been worse - seeing his .223/.256/.393 line drop to .222/.261/.345. So what's the deal? Well I thought Desmond had two things going for him - improved ISO and a BB% that seemed to be on the cusp of improving. Unfortunately, Desmond's discipline has really been poor at the plate over the past month. Both his chase and swinging strike percentages have risen since I last wrote. The result has been a decrease in power and an increase in strikeouts (now up to 27.1% from 20.8%). Suffice it to say, I no longer feel an improvement in Desmond's overall numbers will happen. He just does not have enough pop nor makes enough solid contact (13.7 LD% is very poor) to overcome his awful EYE of .20.
