Josh Beckett SP (BOS) – Beckett was rusty in his first start of the season, and it showed in his lack of control. He walked 4 batters and needed 106 pitches to get through 5 IP. However, with Beckett being healthy, he should experience a nice rebound from last season’s 5.78 ERA in 127.2 IP. In reality, Beckett didn’t pitch nearly that bad as his xFIP of 3.86 was just slightly above his career average. The main problem was some bad luck as Beckett posted a HR/FB% of 14.2% (career average of 11%), a BABIP of .338 (.295) and LOB% of 65.3% (71.5%). All three of those numbers should regress towards Beckett’s career averages, which will result in a significant lowering of his ERA.
Chris Perez RP (CLE) – I’ve written about Perez before and continue to grow concerned he may blow up sometime soon. Last season, Perez was very fortunate a BABIP 22 points below his career average, strand rate 6.7 percentage points above his career average and HR/FB% 3.7 percentage points below his career average all contributed to a 1.71 ERA that could have just as easily been 4.00. Also, Perez’s K/9 dropped from 10.74 to 8.71 last season. Perez has not allowed a run in 2 IP this season but has not struck out a batter. Last night, he got his first save but allowed a hit and 2 walks. The outs were 2 fly outs and a line out. Things are not as rosy here as they may seem.
Billy Butler 1B (KC) – Butler owners have to be pleased with his start after he homered for the second straight game last night. Butler has been a doubles machine the past two seasons (96), and his EYE grew from .56 to .88. Both of those stats are impressive and point towards an upward growth in Butler’s HR rate. I was a bit skeptical this would be the year that Butler saw a significant upswing in power because his FB% and HR/FB% were both actually worse in ’10 than they were in ’09. However, considering Butler’s age (almost 25), 3 year upward trends in BB% (6.9/8.6/10.2) and his massive doubles totals from the past two seasons, it would not be surprising to see Butler set a career high in homers. In particular, watch his FB% early on. If it appears to be on the rise, I’ll be a buyer as increased loft combined with expected increase in power (due to the aforementioned reasons) will put Butler in line for a breakout year.
Michael Pineda SP (SEA) – Pineda was impressive in his first major league start. He survived a really good Texas lineup and struck out 4 while walking only 1 over 6 IP. Pineda is coming off of a monster 2010 season in the minors. In 13 starts at AA he posted a 4.59 K/BB ratio and 2.22 ERA. His skills did not drop off when bumped up to AAA (12 starts there) as Pineda’s K/BB ratio stayed similar at 4.47 and K/9 actually grew from 9.12 to a gaudy 10.97 K/BB ratio. The combination of dominance and control from the young righty (22 YO) make him a candidate to be successful right out of the gate.
Alcides Escobar SS (KC) – I think Alcides Escobar could post a mini-breakout season. For starters, he’s no longer in the 8th spot in a NL lineup – where steals go to die. And on a team with a waek offense, Escobar will likely get the green light to run a lot (2 steals so far). After all, this is a guy who stole 36 bases in 131 minor league games in ’08 and 42 bases in 109 minor league games in 2009. On top of that, Escobar posted a really solid 21.5 LD% in his rookie season, but it did not result in a high average as Escobar’s .223 singles average was unlucky for anyone, let alone a speed guy with a high LD%.
