Travis Wood:
We’ve now seen two rookies get the call before Aroldis Chapman in the Reds rotation and both of them have proven deserving of the shot during their first major league start. Wood shut out the Cubs for 7 innings allowing just 3 base-runners and striking out 4. He ran into some trouble in the 8th walking the first two batters (both of which came around to score) and was eventually pulled, finishing with 2 ER’s allowed over 7 innings. He threw 56 of his 91 pitches for strikes showing adequate command. A look at Wood’s minor league career shows good K Rates (8.4 K/9) but spotty command (3.6 BB/9) that has improved significantly in ’09 (2.8 BB/9) and ’10 (2.1 BB/9). His GB Rate this year was 43% which is about league average and while he’s shown an ability to dominate lefties (1.69 FIP against), he’s been just average against RHs (4.18 FIP against). Wood ultimately is holding a spot in the rotation until Edinson Volquez is ready and while he got a good matchup with the struggling Cubs on Thursday and he’s been very good at AAA, I’m not sure he’s worthy of much fantasy attention right now.
Ike Davis:
Thanks to lineup positioning and power, Ike Davis is making himself a much better fantasy player than real-life player. He posted just a .760 OPS in May and a .716 OPS in June but has delivered 32 Runs, 8 HR’s and 28 RBI’s during that span. The EYE continues to deteriorate as he walked just 4 times in June and struck out a whopping 26 times in 106 AB’s but with 9 XBH’s he continued to generate RBI’s. While the power looks good for fantasy owners, the sub-.330 OBP combined with a 25+% K Rate makes him a bit of a risk in BA and Runs going forward. Something like .250-30-12-35 the rest of the way feels right. There’s some value there if you need power and RBI’s as a U option but I’d probably view him as a rotatable guy you try to slide in on hot weeks.
Carlos Gonzalez:
With an atrocious EYE (0.16) that has seen regression and an ISO that while strong (.191) hasn’t been able to live up to the .241 mark last season, Gonzalez looks like an easy candidate for regression. While I understand where all my colleagues are coming from preaching Gonzalez as a sell high, I just think Gonzalez is one of those guys that outproduces the peripherals. I fought this with Matt Kemp for a number of years and I think Gonzalez is that type of player. He launched another HR on Thursday night while also swiping a base giving him 13 HR’s and 12 SB’s for the year. He’s now hitting in the middle of the Rockies lineup which while now depleted should provide plenty of run and rbi opportunities. While it’s likely the BA comes down as the season goes on, I still think he’ll have a 25-25 season with a run at 100-100 in Runs/RBIs. He’s not someone I’d sell high on.
Madison Bumgarner:
I realize getting off to an 0-2 start with a 5.14 ERA isn’t something to get too excited about (and neither is an 89 mph fastball), but I’ve been pretty impressed with Madison Bumgarner’s first two starts against the Red Sox and Rockies. Bumgarner’s posted a 1.14 WHIP and 10:2 K:BB ratio in his first 14 innings with a GB Rate above 50%. Those skills, if he can maintain them, will play quite nicely in the NL West which is loaded with friendly ballparks to pitch in. He’ll get @MIL and @WAS in a two start week next week and is a SP I’d be willing to run out there in mixed leagues given what I’ve seen so far. Bumgarner was pretty hittable this year in AAA but was able to roll GB’s (46%) and limit the damge with adequate K (6.4 K/9) and BB (2.4 BB/9) rates. While he’ll need the velocity to come back to be an elite SP option in fantasy, he can be a servicable matchups guy this year.
Nyjer Morgan:
It appears we might be seeing some batting average regression for Morgan. He went 2-5 on Thursday night and is now 10 for his last 29 with just 1 XBH and 7 K’s in that span. That equates to a .429 BHIP% in that extremely small sample which indicates some positive movement in that .249 BHIP%. While Morgan’s struck out a few more times this year, he’s actually improved his LD Rate by 4%. So while fewer balls in play equates to a lower batting average that should be compensated a bit by the increased LD Rate. As we’d expect we’re seeing some positive regression now and should continue to see more as Morgan moves his batting average closer to .285-.290. He’s never been an efficient base-stealer so while th 17-28 ratio is concerning it’s not surprising. The Nationals haven’t taken away Morgan’s green light throughout last year’s inefficient base-running or this year’s so we expect the SB totals to rise as the AVG climbs. He should be good for another 20 steals and a .290 or so batting average from here on out, making him a nice buy-low candidate.
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