Domonic Brown:
This one goes to twitter follower SmartMoneyKL for asking about a blurb on Domonic Brown. Ask and you shall receive and Follow me on Twitter and you can ask, thus receive! (@DrewDinkmeyer). With Jayson Werth’s name circulating in trade talks Domonic Brown is becoming a hot topic in the fantasy community as well he should. Brown is widely considered the #1 prospect in the minor leagues and has posted a stellaer .323/.385/.580 line across AA and AAA this season. The LH swinging RF has great power skills and above average speed (19 HR’s, 14 SB’s so far this season) and his lefty swing could generate immediate results in the HR and RBI categories upon promotion. He’s still a bit raw with plate discipline as he’s posted just a .27 EYE at AAA (.50 EYE overall this season), but he makes adequate contact (K Rate is just around 18%) and the power will help make up for the likely lack of walks early on in his career. Because he’s shown better contact skills and would play in a friendlier environment, I actually think he compares as a slightly more favorable version of Mike Stanton for fantasy owners this year. Stanton’s been able to compile 6 HR’s and 23 RBI’s in his first 34 games and I think Brown can duplicate that production with a better average and more SB’s if promoted. While I was skeptical of Stanton’s immediate impact, I feel pretty good about Brown’s ability to contribute for fantasy lineups. Something like .275-30-12-40-6 would be my expectation for Brown the rest of the year, making him a worthy OF option in all formats. For those with excess roster room I think he’s worth owning immediately and holding until the deadline. The Phils GM has indicated Brown would play every day if promoted and with Werth potentially on the way out, Brown is the clear potential beneficiary in Philadelphia.
Jimmy Rollins:
Amidst a year filled with injuries little attention has been paid to just how bad Rollins has been since returning from the calf injury. After posting a .182/.270/.273 line in just 33 June AB’s, Rollins has hit just .184/.267/.276 in July. For the season Rollins is stuck at .227/.326/.373 and this is after a 2009 season that he hit just .250/.296/.423. At 32 his power has been in a rapid decline from his peak and his ISO now sits at just .151. This is actually in line with Rollins skills earlier in his career, but back then Rollins was making up for the lack of power by hitting more LD’s and GB’s, posting FB Rates consistently below 36%. But since Rollins peak power years he’s transformed himself into a FB heavy hitter with an upper-cut swing. Declining power and more FB’s is a recipe for a drop in batting average and effectiveness. It’s not all bad with Rollins however as his plate discipline has shown extreme improvements this year (1.31 EYE) and his poor batting average while mitigated by deteriorating skill has also been heavily impacted by bad luck (.227 BABIP). Even with a measly 15% LD Rate, Rollins BABIP is still about 40 points below what we’d expect. The good news is there’s upside for batting average and with the improved EYE led by a solid BB Rate means Rollins should start getting on-base more and scoring more runs. However, the days of 20+ HR’s are gone as are the elite Run totals in the past. With about 65 games left on the schedule a .265-35-6-27-13 type line looks like a reasonable expectation. Certainly not top rd value and the type of expectation that might want to have owners thinking of “selling low” on Jimmy Rollins. Guys like Rafael Furcal and Elvis Andrus don’t have the name value that Rollins does but are likely to out-produce Rollins from here on out.
Seth Smith:
I’ve been waiting for 2 seasons for Seth Smith to get his opportunity at more playing time and with Brad Hawpe struggling and potentially out of the picture short-term and Carlos Gonzalez banged up it appears Smith is going to get a fair share of starts in the next week. Smith has always exhibited great skills with the bat (career .879 OPS) but hasn’t received much playing time in Colorado (just 510 PA’s last two seasons). He’s posted a career ISO of .224 with a solid .66 EYE and its all supported by a minor league track record with an OPS above .880. It’s been a bit of a mystery why he hasn’t played and I was surprised the Rockies didn’t move Hawpe in the offseason to clear room for Smith who looked like a Hawpe clone (just younger). With Hawpe in the last year of his contract perhaps that transition is taking place now. Smith will still likely sit against LH’s (Ryan Spilborghs and Fowler will start then) so he won’t play everyday but for those in daily formats I think he should be owned everywhere. In weekly formats of say 10 teams, he warrants enough upside to be rostered but owners should prepare for just 4-5 games a week instead of the usual 5-7 you get out of an everyday player.
Edinson Volquez:
I was asked on Twitter a couple weeks ago my thoughts on Volquez and I preached “cautious optimism”. While Volquez had shown good skills in his minor league rehabd outings (velocity back, good K’s, good command), pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery have usually displayed suspect command during their first year. Volquez’s shaky command in his major league career (career 4.3 BB/9) left little leeway for any command lapses this season. In his first outing he was spectacular, throwing 60 of his 96 pitches for strikes and walking just 2 over 6 innings, but in his 2nd outing on Tuesday the command just wasn’t there. Volquez threw just 38 of his 76 pitches for strikes while walking 4 in 2 1/3 innings. He did strike out 4 showing good stuff, but the lack of command also led to a pounding (5 hits, 1 HR, 6 ER’s). He absolutely should be owned in all formats given the upside and the great stuff, but owners need to be conservative with Volquez and perhaps reserve him against patient offenses.
Hiroki Kuroda:
Kuroda just seems to be one of “my” guys. I own him in a lot of leagues. I enjoy watching him pitch and I’m generally unphased by poor outings or weaker peripherals. Even in early June when the BB’s were getting a bit out of the ordinary or early July when Kuroda took it on the chin a couple outings, I kept plugging along with him. He’s rewarded me with a couple really solid outings including last night’s 8 shutout innings against the Mets. Kuroda walked just 1, allowed just 5 hits and struck out 4 during his outing. He’s now walked just 2 batters in his last 21 innings and with a bump in K Rate 7.5 K/9 and GB Rate this season 54%, he entered yesterday’s start with a stellar 3.45 FIP. He strikes out enough to warrant fantasy owners attention, but since he doesn’t have the upside of an ace he’s often ignored. But pitching in the NL West loaded with great matchups and great parks, Kuroda is the perfect back-end fantasy starter on your roster. He’ll get the Padres in his next two outings and should continue to build on his recent string of success. I continue to believe he’s vastly undervalued.
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