Jair Jurrjens:
Jurrjens was effective once again in his 3rd outing since being activated from the disabled list. He went 6 2/3 innings against the Brewers limiting them to just 1 ER on 5 hits and 2 bb’s while striking out 3. Since coming off of the DL Jurrjens has a 13:7 K:BB Ratio in 17 2/3 innings that is more in line with his career K and BB Rates. Jurrjens early season struggles were marked by a heightened BB Rate that was coupled with a higher FB Rate which was translating to more HR’s and XBH’s. While the BB Rate has come back down, he’s still yielding too many balls in the air (6 ground outs, 8 air outs on Thursday night) and is going to be susceptible to the HR (lone run came off a Corey Hart HR last night). Jurrjens has always been a guy who has out-pitched his peripherals (career FIP 4.32, career ERA 3.38), so perhaps there’s reason to believe he can continue to have this level of success despite middling peripherals, but I highly doubt it. He should be owned in all formats and is a fine matchups play in traditional mixed formats, but he’s not the ace or solid #2 fantasy starter his career ERA would suggest.
Ryan Dempster:
Dempster made it 8 consecutive starts in which he’s allowed 3 ER’s or less as he limited the Phillies to just 2 ER’s over 6 2/3 innings. He struck out 9 as he continues to show elite growth in his K Rate as Thursday’s outing brought his K/9 to over 9 for the season with 129 K’s in 128 2/3 innings. His BB’s have ticked up a tiny bit (3.21 BB/9) but they’re still in the acceptable range and with a 49% GB Rate, Dempster’s posting pretty elite skills. He’s been victimized a bit by the HR ball (and was again on Thursday night giving up a 2 run HR to Ryan Howard), but with a HR/FB Rate over 13% and a career rate closer to 11% there might be some room for positive regression there. The 8-7 record and 3.57 ERA are masking some very good skills and as a result Dempster’s a nice buy-low candidate for fantasy owners as his performance is a bit better than his production.
Manny Ramirez:
Manny returned from the DL and was inserted right into the middle of the lineup and promptly went 0-4 against Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals. From a skills perspective Manny’s shown little decline this season as his ISO is still a solid .202 and he’s combatted a lower BB Rate by making more contact, keeping his EYE a solid 0.85. But while he hasn’t declined much in skill, his fantasy value has plummeted as he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. He only played in 59 games in the 1st half registering a paltry 31 Run, 8 HR, 39 RBI line that barely makes a dent in the counting categories. If he can stay on the field perhaps there’s a big 2nd half run in Manny, but at 38 and with the Dodgers giving Manny more days off this season, it seems unlikely.
Aramis Ramirez:
Ramirez picked up right where he left off before the all-star break as he racked up 2 more extra base hits and 4 more RBI’s in the first game back. I noted last week that Ramirez’s swing looked back and perhaps most importantly he wasn’t striking out nearly as much. He’s now struck out just 5 times in his last 45 AB’s and racked up 9 XBH’s in that span. The combination of above average contact skills with above average power has made Ramirez a tremendous fantasy asset throughout the last 7 years when healthy. I’m not sure what was going on early in the season, but Ramirez appears to be beyond it. I expect a more normalized 2nd half from Ramirez, something along the lines of .290-13-45 the rest of the way.
Carlos Beltran:
Beltran made his long-awaited return to the field on Thursday night and went 1-4 with a single. He’s wearing a big knee brace on his surgically repaired right knee which would appear to hamper his running and potentially limit the SB opportunities. It remains to be seen how much playing time Beltran receives and if the Mets ease him back into the swing of things. There will be some rust, facing major league pitching for the first time in nearly a year and starting things off with Tim Lincecum certainly wasn’t ideal. In addition there is some additional risk of re-injury given Beltran’s defensive responsibilities in CF and the pressure put on his knees. As a result I think expectations should be tempered for Beltran’s return. I don’t anticipate the SB production being there and it will take time for his timing to adjust. He hit clean-up on Thursday which will afford him a number of opportunities for Runs and RBI’s but I’m thinking something like .275-40-10-40-5 the rest of the season from Beltran. Certainly worthy of attention in all formats, but perhaps not the 5 category stud we’re used to when plugging Beltran into our lineups.
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