Jason Kubel:
Just when it looked like Kubel was getting things going, hitting .316/.356/.537 in June, the power disappears again and Kubel’s value fades. There was another glimmer of hope on Sunday as Kubel knocked out his 12th HR of the season in a 3-5 effort that netted 4 RBI’s. It marked just the 5th XBH of the month for Kubel (in nearly 80 AB’s) and just the 12th RBI. His K Rate has bumped up again here in July (23 K’s in 81 AB’s) and has been elevated most of the season, but the big issue has quite simply been a severe drop in his power rates. Given that his FB Rate has remained the same and his XBH’s are down across the board it looks like Kubel’s 2009 power rates may be the anomaly (ISOs: .177, .199, .239, .164). In past years with the moderate power production, Kubel posted paces of 70-20-70 (R-HR-RBI) and he’s on a bit of a similar pace this season. While I had hopes for a power recovery based on the strong June and a big 2nd half, it’s looking less likely that Kubel’s 2009 power rates are sustainable and far more likely that Kubel’s base-line production is more in line with 2007-2008.
Ichiro Suzuki:
With an 0-5 effort on Sunday Ichiro extended an ugly July slump that now has him just 20-91 (.220). Perhaps most concerning has been the deterioration in his contact rate here in July as he’s struck out 15 times in those 91 AB’s. This has been a mild trend during the season as Ichiro’s K Rate is up over 13% for the year. He’s been able to moderate the rise in K Rate with a few more BB’s, but less balls in play is a big concern for Ichiro’s largest skill for fantasy players: batting average. Along with the rising K Rate there’s been some other indicators that suggest Ichiro is showing some deterioration at age 36. For the 6th straight season Ichiro’s LD Rate has declined and sits at an underwhelming 17.2% this season. Fewer LD’s and fewer balls in play makes Ichiro’s BABIP a bit more susceptible to decline. So far we haven’t seen the BABIP drop dramatically (still a high .353, career .357), but the skill deterioration suggests one might be coming. All of these skill declines are very modest, so there’s nothing to panic about here, but Ichiro’s fantasy value is so tied to batting average that any deterioration is worth mentiong. Even after the 0-5 afternoon Ichiro’s batting average sits at a healthy .308, but with a pace below 65 Runs and 45 RBI’s, Ichiro’s batting average needs to sit in the .340’s to recover the value he’s posted in previous seasons. It’s a slow decline, but it’s evident that Ichiro’s fantasy value is fading.
Marco Scutaro:
Hitting atop the Red Sox lineup, Scutaro’s on-base skills have left him as a consistent Run-producer and a valuable asset in fantasy leagues as a MI or SS option. Scutaro has slumped mightily though here in July (.226/.270/.310) and it couldn’t come at a worse time with Jed Lowrie just activated and Jacoby Ellsbury working his way back. Without much power, ISO’s around .100 for his career, or speed (37 career SBs), Scutaro is extremely lineup dependent in his fantasy value. With Lowrie back as an option to give Scutaro some days off and Ellsbury working his way back and eventually into the Red Sox leadoff spot, I’d expect Scutaro to be dropped back down into the bottom of the order, severely limiting his value. With the recent string of injuries in the MI spot, Scutaro may hold value for another week or two, but I’ve been dropping him in places I used him this week for higher upside guys like Starlin Castro.
Wade Davis:
Davis tossed his 3rd straight quality start on Sunday afternoon as he limited the Indians to just 7 hits,1 BB, and 2 ER’s over 6 1/3 innings. He struck out 4 and picked up his 3rd consecutive win, which has helped quiet the buzz surrounding a potential Jeremy Hellickson call-up. Over the last 3 starts, Davis has shown more willingness to pound the zone (2.5 BB/9) and an improved ability to generate GB’s (1.29 GO:AO Ratio). It should be noted the starts have come against CLE, BAL, CLE, not exactly juggernauts, so there’s reason to be cautious, but the improvements in command and GB Rate are consistent with Davis’ minor league career which posted a BB Rate closer to 3.3 BB/9 and a GB Rate in the mid 40’s. I’m still cautious on using Davis as anything more than a matchups play in mixed leagues, but the recent peripherals do support the success. We’ll have to see if it’s legitimate improvement or just matchups driven, for now I lean towards the latter.
Scott Sizemore:
Sizemore went 0-6 during Sunday’s double-header and is now just 1-12 since being recalled from AAA. Sizemore was given a full six weeks early in the season and hit just .206/.297/.289 but then went back down to AAA and hit .329/.392/.515. He appears to be a bit in-between levels in his development as his power hasn’t translated at the major league level yet and his high K Rate and shaky plate discipline has prevented the power development. He was called up to replace Brandon Inge at 3B but with Carlos Guillen also getting placed on the DL it looks like Sizemore will be guaranteed playing time at either 2B or 3B for the next two weeks. He still has some upside (many viewed him as a ROY candidate coming into the season), but the pressure will be on to contribute with the Tigers struggling with injuries and pressed for offensive help. For now AL Only leaguers should be interested, but mixed leaguers can ignore him.
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