AL Daily Notes - July 19th, 2010

C.J. Wilson:

Wilson’s first start after the break ended up being a good one as he struck out 10 and allowed just 1 ER in 6 2/3 innings against the Red Sox. He struggled once again with command, walking 5, but yielded just 3 hits and was able to work around the base-runners with the strikeouts. Last week in this space I was very pessimistic on Wilson, noting the deteriorating peripherals (specifically the command) and concerns over fatigue. The Red Sox lineup on Sunday included just 5 major league hitters so while the outing was a strong one, I remain skeptical. A .250 BABIP against and LOB% above 72% has hidden a lot of the middling skills Wilson has demonstrated. His ERA is currently 1.50 runs below his expected FIP and Wilson currently looks like a ticking time bomb for fantasy owners. I recommend exhibiting extreme caution with Wilson going forward.

Vin Mazzaro:

Mazzaro posted his 5th consecutive quality start on Sunday and notched his 5th win of the season with 7 2/3 strong innings against the Royals. Mazzaro displayed good command, walking just 1 and limiting the Royals to just 7 hits and 1 ER while striking out 5. I touched on Mazzaro in this space a few weeks back and noted the hot string looked more schedule driven than skills-driven and a matchup with the Royals doesn’t do much to disprove that notion. Mazzaro entered the start with just a 5.11 FIP and his modest K Rate (5.7 K/9) with a middling BB Rate (3.8 BB/9) makes him a risky bet to succeeed going forward. Throw in the risk of his rotation spot when Brett Anderson returns and he’s not someone who should be relied upon in mixed formats.

Michael Cuddyer:

We’re starting to see some recovery in Michael Cuddyer’s power here in July as he’s racked up 8 extra base hits in 54 AB’s. Cuddyer’s EYE has actually improved this season up to .67 but the reduced power rates have driven down the HR/RBI numbers. I touched on Cuddyer two weeks ago in this space, noting a feeling that the power could recover and Cuddyer could be in line for a rebound in the 2nd half. So far the results are good and largely driven by the primary indicator we’d want to see: a recovery in his XBH Rate. With plenty of opportunities in the middle of a deep Twins lineup, Cuddyer looks like a nice option in the 2nd half for fantasy owners. He’s driven in just 41 to date, but I envision him doubling that output from here on out. I expect an additional 7-10 HR’s and 35-45 RBIs from here on out.

Gordon Beckham:

Beckham extended his hitting streak to 7 games on Sunday with a 4-4 effort that raised his batting average 11 points to .237. Schuyler did a nice job covering Beckham earlier in the week and recommending a pickup and I’ll hop on that recommendation as well. Beckham’s big issues this year have been two-fold: 1) a significant drop in power (0.99 ISO) and 2) some horrible luck on balls in play (.263 BABIP, despite same LD Rate); and we’re seeing both those correct here. Beckham had accumulated just 5 XBH’s in his first 186 AB’s, but has racked up 14 XBH’s in his last 101 AB’s. Obviously there’s some end-point bias exaggerating those numbers, but the point remains Beckham’s power has recovered. In addition his BHIP% (singles average) is .379 here in July indicating some of his luck is turning. His great plate discipline last year was likely to take some steps back this year (and it has), but the disappearing power was a mystery and his overall performance was further exaggerated by some bad luck. Going forward I think we can expect 7-10 more HR’s from Beckham along with a .270 BA or so. He’ll suffer in the Run/RBI categories because he’s hitting near the bottom of the White Sox lineup for now, but there’s upside there as well considering he entered the year as the #2 hitter and the White Sox are absent traditional OBP guys at the top of the lineup. He should be owned in pretty much all formats from here on out at the very least as a solid MI option.

Chris Davis:

Davis is just 4-22 since being recalled from AAA, with 3 of those hits coming in one game against the Orioles. While Davis’ struggles may not be a big surprise, the way he’s gotten there sure should be. He’s struck out just 3 times in the first 22 AB’s and he’s yet to collect an extra base hit. In his earlier stint this season Davis struck out 17 times in his first 48 AB’s before being demoted. Although the results haven’t been there yet, the plate discipline and contact rate are showing improvements since his return. As a result I’m holding onto Davis’ big time power potential where I can and hoping for some signs of life. I’d reserve him until we get a better indication if this small sample size is indicative of better contact, but there’s some small glimmers of hope amidst the struggles.

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