Jonathan Sanchez:
I noted Sanchez as a deep sleeper in my pre-season projections article because of his big K potential and early on in the season he continues to flash brilliance mixed in with a lot of well… not so brilliance. On Sunday Sanchez continued to struggle with his control, walking 4 in 5 innings and throwing just 59 of his 101 pitches for strikes. But he continued to flash that appealing dominance, striking out another 5 and allowing just 2 hits. For the season he now has 28 K’s in just 20 innings to go with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. I actually think this is the type of line (his season total) we can expect going forward for Sanchez with upside for even more.
Ryan Dempster:
Dempster improved to 3-0 on Sunday with 5 “gritty” innings against the Pirates. He ended up allowing 3 ER’s on 5 hits and 2 BB’s while striking out 3 and more importantly threw 62 of his 94 pitches for strikes. I know owners are going to see a nice 3-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, sitting on the waiver wire and someone’s going to get interested, but I beg of you to stay away from Dempster. While Dempster has a favorable matchup (in Washington) next week that will probably make me look bad and his current numbers look pretty good, it’s largely the result of a smoke and mirrors magic show on the mound. Dempster’s already walked 11 batters in his first 24 innings and is currently benefiting from an absurdly low .157 BHIP% against. One of those two stats is consistent with his career and the other is not. The walks are here to stay and while Dempster might be the beneficiary of some cheap wins thanks to the Cubs offense, he’s going to be a middling fantasy starter with an ERA likely in the mid-to-high 4’s and a whip in the high 1.30’s to low 1.40’s. The regression will come and it won’t be pretty, I’m warning you now.
Reed Johnson:
I noted this, mainly through Felix Pie blurbs, earlier in the season, but Reed Johnson is locking himself into some serious playing time for the Cubs. Johnson hit leadoff again on Sunday, going 2-5 and scoring 3 more runs to raise his early season line to .354/.418/.417 with 8 runs scored. Johnson’s early season production isn’t going to last, as it’s largely being fueled by a .341 BHIP%, but his playing time is going to continue. Lou Pineilla, like most veteran managers, LOVES his veterans and doesn’t seem particularly interested in watching the growing pains of Felix Pie. This makes Johnson the default CF option and someone likely to get plenty of playing time as the year goes on. Johnson only makes sense in deeper leagues as he doesn’t have much power (just 42 HR’s in over 2100 major league AB’s) nor much SB potential (just 29 of 46 in his career), but he’s shown spurts of batting average and run scoring potential. I was asked recently by an NL only leaguer about Johnson vs. Ryan Spilborghs of Colorado and ultimately sided with Spilborgh’s overwhelming advantage in per AB performance (and would still lean that way as I prefer talent over opportunity in most cases), but Johnson’s the type of guy who’s going to end up with a lot more playing time than originally anticipated.
Jose Valverde:
Valverde nailed down his first save opportunity in exciting fashion on Sunday since the meltdowns earlier this week. Valverde allowed a walk and a hit but was able to get through the inning unscathed and recorded his 2nd save of the season. Valverde’s been bantered about pretty frequently on the site with valuable opinions from both Joe and Mike. While Valverde has a valuable skill set for the closer’s role, his command and as Joe noted his shall we say “makeup” has always been questionable. A quick check at Valverde’s month-to-month splits over the last 3 years reaffirms these beliefs as he’s either “lights-out” or “getting lit”. Over the last 3 seasons his month-to-month ERA reads: 2005- 6.55, 2.81, 0.69, 3.48, 0.00, 2006- 3.24, 7.71, 12.66, 1.80, 2.08, 2007- 1.64, 5.25, 0.87, 2.35, 3.52, 1.12. Out of the 16 months sampled, Valverde either posted an ERA below 2 or an ERA above 5 in 9 of the 16 months. It appears this is just part of the package when you invest in Jose Valverde. Luckily the Astros don’t have much else in the pen and Valverde will be thrown out there to justify his trade and contract which means he’ll have a long enough leash to bring his value back with some hot months.
Conor Jackson:
As Schuyler mentioned a few days ago I’m about as big of a Conor Jackson fan as you can find outside of his immediate family. Jackson’s quick start in which he’s hit .377/.469/.717 is fully supported by improving skills. Jackson’s shown an improved EYE (2.33) early on with 7 BB’s and 3 K’s in his first 53 AB’s, showing improvements in both his BB Rate (12.5) and his K Rate (a miniscule 5.7). Even better, the hot start hasn’t been aided by much luck, as evidenced by his .268 BHIP% (through Sunday). If there’s anything with Jackson that I’m concerned about it’s the fact that I was a bit conservative in my pre-season projections of .290-85-25-100. After watching Jackson take some further steps early this season and watching the DBacks offense around him, I’m upping those numbers to .290-95-30-105, making Jackson a possible Top 10 1B.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today.
