Chris Capuano
Capuano was diagnosed with a Torn UCL in his left elbow and could face the dreaded Tommy John surgery if the tear is full. I mentioned earlier in the spring I thought something was wrong with Capuano last year and was sticking to my gut rather than following my head which suggested a lot of poor luck went into Capuano’s season last year. Scouting reports suggested his velocity was down significantly at the end of last season and it appears Capuano may have been pitching through this injury last year as well.
Manny Parra
With Capuano out of the rotation for good and Yovani Gallardo hurting at the beginning of the season, leaves 3 spots open for David Bush, Carlos Villanueva, Claudio Vargas, and Manny Parra. Villanueva, Vargas, and Parra have had the best spring although (as usual) Bush has displayed the best peripherals. With Vargas’ rough outing in his last start against the Giants, Bush may have jumped ahead for the final slot, while Parra and Villanueva’s strong springs suggest they should start in the rotation.
Scott Rolen
Rolen injured his finger during fielding drills on Sunday and is now likely to miss the start of the season. Rolen suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right index finger while also having the nail ripped off. The Jays plan to announce a time-table for the injury this week. Rolen’s power, plate discipline, and fly ball rate all decreased significantly in 2007 showing some legitimate signs of deterioration in his skill set. The power can potentially be blamed on the nagging shoulder injury, but the lack of plate discipline and the increasing GB Rate suggests Rolen’s entered the decline phase of his career. Given the move to a more difficult league and the injury history Rolen has fallen extremely far out of favor with fantasy owners and at this point can only be considered useful in extremely deep leagues or as a late round flier.
Curtis Granderson
The injury bug made it’s away around spring camps on Sunday and it seemed to be targeting fingers! Granderson was placed on the DL with a fractured finger. As a result he’ll miss some time at the beginning of the season, but the injury shouldn’t be a concern long-term and if this news negatively impacts Granderson’s draft value, feel free to take advantage. I’m a big believer in taking advantage on draft day of short-term injuries deflating players’ draft value. Unfortunately with Granderson I think his 3rd round draft position was pretty inflated to begin with. Granderson’s a terrific young talent and has made significant strides but his .360 BABIP screams regression and his EYE suggests a below .300 hitter, significantly cutting into his value. If Granderson hits in the .270’s or .280’s he could offer more batting average risk than owners are anticipating.
Francisco Liriano
Sunday was a step in the right direction for Liriano’s ability to start the season in the rotation. Liriano dominated the Orioles throwing 4 scoreless/hitless innings. He walked 2 but struck out 5 and despite only being able to go 4 innings, it appears more likely he’ll open the season in the rotation. Fantasy owners haven’t forgotten Liriano’s immense talent and as a result he’s been fully valued in drafts. For those drafting and targeting Liriano you’re going to have to pay close to full value for him based on drafts I’ve seen. I’ve been trying to target him as a high upside front line starter for some of my hitting-heavy drafts in say the 8th or 9th round, but many times he’s off the board before then. Liriano’s strong spring suggests paying full value isn’t a bad idea and his ability to start the year in the rotation should only excite fantasy owners further.
Josh Beckett
Beckett, who didn’t travel with the team to Japan in order to build up arm strength, pitched two strong innings against minor-leaguers on Sunday. Beckett will likely move up to 4 innings for his next start on Friday, putting him on schedule to possibly pitch during the first week of the season if the Red Sox allow him to throw 5-6 innings in a major league game, but more likely should be on track to pitch during the 2nd week of the season. Beckett’s always had difficulty staying healthy, but in the past blisters were the primary concern. This latest case with back spasms appears to be under control and may be due to Beckett’s weight gain over the off-season. Hopefully for Red Sox Nation and Beckett owners this recent set of back spasms is just a minor setback and his ability to work himself back into playing shape keeps the back spasms under control for the rest of the season.
Fausto Carmona
Carmona looked pretty solid on Sunday holding down the prolific Tigers offense to just 2 earned runs on 6 hits over 6 innings. Carmona’s line on Sunday is one I expect to see a lot of this season, 6 innings, 2 ER, 2 BB’s, 6 Hits, 2 K’s. The lack of K’s is the key for me. Carmona is a very good pitcher but he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters and he doesn’t have a tremendous track record at the major league level (mostly due to his youth). Add in the big innings jump last year (113 over 2006, 42 over career high) and Carmona comes with a bit too much risk for my taste and as a result won’t be landing on too many of my teams. If you’re a Carmona fan take a look at Derek Lowe who can provide similar numbers about 10 rounds later.
Mark Prior
As a die-hard Cubs fan, (and Prior fan) it’s hard for me to write objectively about Prior, but the news out of Padres camp was that his side session on Saturday was spectacular. Prior reportedly was snapping off curveballs for the first time all spring, impressing Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley. I’ve been emotionally scarred by Mark Prior enough, but I still believe in his immense talent and think the move to San Diego could be a boon to his career. Toss in my experience with great pitchers leaving the Cubs only to become better (see Maddux, Greg) and I can’t shake this feeling that Prior is going to put things together again. He’s absolutely worth a late round flier in deep leagues and is someone I intend to keep my eye on in shallow leagues as his rehab progresses.
News out of Cubs Camp:
Wood looks good to go
It’s all but official, and I assume we’ll find out officially this afternoon, but Kerry Wood’s back-to-back appearances on Saturday and Sunday were the final test for Wood before being named closer. The back-to-back appearances for Wood actually marked the third time in four days that he had thrown since he threw on Thursday as well. Wood’s been tremendous this spring striking out 10 and walking ZERO in his 10 innings of work while reportedly touching 98 on the gun. As always the only question mark with Wood is his health, as long as he’s healthy he has a chance to be an elite arm out of the pen. Joe and Anthony were right out of the gates on this one and while my suggestion of Bob Howry looks slightly better with his strong spring finish, Wood looks to have won this battle quite easily. Score 1 for Anthony and Joe if you’re keeping score at home.
Cubs set to announce rotation on Monday
Lou Pineilla admitted on Sunday that he had a good idea of how his pitching staff would line up, but delayed the official announcement till Monday. One of the candidates, Jason Marquis, pitched adequately on Sunday despite giving up a first inning 3 run HR to Adrian Gonzalez. Marquis gave up just the 3 runs on 4 hits, while striking out 5 and not walking a batter in his 4 1/3 innings. Given some of the comments earlier in the spring out of Marquis (not willing to pitch in the pen) and Lieber (open to pitching our of the pen), I’m guessing Dempster and Marquis will be the #3 and #5 starters for the Cubs to start the season. Unfortunately this leaves Lieber, who may be the most skilled starter pitching out of the pen to start the year. As a Cubs fan my ideal would include moving Dempster back into the pen, where he’s had some success, letting Lieber pitch out of the 3rd slot and let Marquis be the “innings eater” out of the 5th slot. But for now I’d imagine Lieber starts as the long man out of the pen, until Dempster either proves himself incapable of starting or the Cubs find a suitor for Jason Marquis and his remaining 16 million dollar contract.
News out of A’s Camp:
Chavez already injured
Chavez’s back is already flaring up this spring and the A’s have decided to shut him down from baseball activities. Specifics about the setback weren’t available but the A’s training staff admitted they were back to square one with Chavez and his back. This makes it almost certain Chavez will start the season on the DL. As with Scott Rolen, Chavez’s skills have shown some deterioration over the last few years, but it’s difficult to assess how much of the deterioration is normal aging vs. how much is the result of battling injuries. Either way it appears Chavez’s fantasy value is likely to be limited once again this season due to injury.
Cust an OF, Sweeney likely starting DH
Jack Cust keeps playing in the OF as the A’s try to find a way to get Mike Sweeney or Dan Johnson’s bat in the lineup. This experiment will likely last as long as Sweeney or Johnson are hitting, but for the time being this should free up extra at bats for each of them. Sweeney’s solid spring likely puts him in line for the majority of AB’s at the beginning of the season and as a result he deserves some late round attention in deep leagues. I don’t particularly think this arrangement will last with the A’s spacious outfield and Sweeney’s ineffectiveness the last few years, but for the time being Sweeney deserves some attention.
News out of Angels Camp:
Angels Starting Catcher becoming cloudier?
With Jeff Mathis collecting another 3 hits on Sunday, raising his spring line to .360/.484/.440, he could be pushing Mike Napoli for playing time and potentially the Angels starting catcher position. At this point the Angels haven’t named a starting catcher and it was assumed the productive Napoli had the role sewn up, but this is something to pay attention to as the spring season closes. Napoli’s injury history has necessitated a part-time role for him throughout the last two seasons and Mathis’ strong spring may be fortifying the platoon.
Scot Shields shut down with forearm soreness
Shields has been a personal favorite of mine for a few seasons as part of my middle-reliever strategy. But last season he began to show some signs of deterioration in his skills as his BB Rate jumped and he became a bit more hittable in general. After three consecutive seasons of 85+ innings out of the pen it’s not surprising Shields struggled a bit last year and the over-use appears to have begun to impact his arm. Shields was shut down with forearm soreness and while Shields expects to be ready for opening day, Justin Speier appears to be the more attractive option to me out of the Angels pan once you get past Francisco Rodriguez.
News out of Reds Camp:
Cueto gets dose of reality
Johnny Cueto’s big spring finished a bit earlier than expected Sunday as Cueto had to be removed from Sunday’s start due to ineffectiveness. Cueto walked 5 and gave up an additional 3 hits and 5 ER’s in just 2/3 of an inning Sunday against the Rays. Cueto’s strong spring has gotten plenty of attention and it looks as if he’s locked up a rotation slot, but this start should serve as a reminder of two things: 1) the Rays offense could be tremendous and 2) Cueto is still a youngster who’s likely to suffer some growing pains at the big league level this year. While we all like to clamor for young pitching, be prepared that it can be pretty volatile as well. I like Cueto as a pitching prospect and especially like the division he gets to pitch in, but he’s going to have some rough outings this year and shouldn’t be counted on for more than a late round pick with upside in mixed leagues.
Edwin Encarnacion’s terrible spring continues
I’ve been predicting an Encarnacion breakout for 3 years now, actually I should say I’ve been incorrectly predicting Encarnacion’s breakout season for 3 years now. Encarnacion’s 0-3 Sunday moved his spring line to .180/.255/.260 and I’m starting to get a bit worried, not about Encarnacion’s talent, but about his opportunity. We haven’t seen too much of Ryan Freel at 3B yet, but Dusty Baker loves veterans and loves “Scrappy” veterans like Freel. If Baker decides to get a more traditional on-base threat in the leadoff spot as opposed to Corey Patterson, Freel could end up taking some time away from Encarnacion at 3B. This is pure speculation on my part, but it’s something to keep in mind and another reason to place an emphasis on the top tier 3B this season. I continue to think 3B is a thinner position than people are giving credence to and one of the reasons are the various injury-related concerns scattered throughout the position (and today’s daily notes) and the youth being relied upon at the position as well.
