Dustin McGowan
Let me preface this blurb with the fact that I have an unhealthy affection for Dustin McGowan. I think he’s far and away the best bargain available with regards to pitching this season. McGowan’s peripherals scream STUD starting pitcher: GB Rate of 53%, Strikeout Rate of .85, HR Rate (HR/9) of .74, and BB Rate of .36. Last year his Expected ERA was 3.21 in 170 innings. He’s basically Roy Halladay with Strikeouts and he’s being drafted on average around 182nd overall. This is a ridiculous disparity in actual value vs. perceived value and one that hopefully all of our subscribers have taken advantage of on draft day. If you haven’t start making trade offers now, while McGowan’s perceived value is still low. His first start of the year comes against the Yankees vaunted offense, so if he gets roughed up there a buying opportunity might continue to exist. Conversely if he pitches as I expect him to, his value could skyrocket. Try to get in now, while the getting is good if you haven’t already.
Fausto Carmona
I mentioned this earlier in the spring but looking at Fausto Carmona’s brief career brings up so many red flags that I can’t imagine landing him on a single team this year. First and foremost the track record with Carmona is quite limited. We have one horrendous season out of the bullpen and one terrific season to work off of. Secondly Carmona’s innings increase last season (100 over previous season, 42 over previous high) raises more red flags about durability issues this year. Thirdly Carmona’s skill set isn’t uncommon. Carmona is a terrific ground ball pitcher who happens to pitch for a very good Indians ball-club. As a result he garners wins and racks up efficient innings which help him in the other counting stats. My problem is that Carmona is going right outside the Top 100 picks and an equivalent player like Derek Lowe is going nearly 90 picks later. I love the Indians and I think Carmona is an integral part of their success this season but taking into consideration the risk factors and the level of performance he offers, I feel he’s highly overrated heading into 2008.
Carlos Gomez
Seeing Carlos Gomez on the overrated side of my predictions list may have come as a surprise to readers who have seen the young star rise up our rankings list over the last few weeks. While Gomez certainly has astounding speed and can offer significant help in the SB’s category, as Schuyler mentioned last week I don’t see any way he can help in the rest of the hitting categories. To say Gomez was overmatched in his stint with the Mets last year would be an understatement. Gomez struck out in 19% of his plate appearances last season and added another 17.6% of his AB’s that resulted in infield fly outs. His .232/.288/.304 line was as bad as it sounds and his minor league track record suggests a player that should be taking on AAA as a challenge. Gomez has never posted an OPS above .780 in the minors at any stop and his .592 OPS last season in 139 plate appearances suggests he’s far away from making an impact at the big league level as well. Gomez might be able to still 50 bases with full playing time, but as the old adage goes he can’t steal first base. Gomez is going to be a one category contributor this year, who absolutely mauls your other category production, especially batting average. While the steals would be nice, I’m passing on all the numbers that come with it and looking in another direction for speed this year.
Joakim Soria
When drafting closers there are two things I primarily look for: 1) skill set and 2) opportunity. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise as these are the two variables usually evaluated by fantasy owners when analyzing the closer’s role, but one guy that keeps popping off the page for me this season is Joakim Soria. The Kansas City bullpen is pretty thin and as a result not only is Soria the only closing candidate currently but he looks to be locked in even if he struggled. As far as skill-set goes, Soria’s 2007 was flat out dominant. Soria struck out over a batter per inning while keeping his BB’s down (.28 BB Rate) and he allowed a measly 3 HR’s! The HR’s allowed Rate isn’t likely to stay as Soria had some good luck with his HR/FB Rate but the rest of the numbers are quite real. As a result the combination of Soria’s elite skills with his locked in opportunity would seem to make Soria one of the Top 10 closer candidates heading into 2008, but instead he’s being drafted around the 20th closer taken. This is likely because the Royals are perceived as a bad team with little chance of racking up save opportunities but very little correlation exists between team’s winning % and their save opportunities. As a result there’s been a nice little buying opportunity for Soria and should continue to be early on in the season. He’s one of the safest closing options around and unfortunately he’s not being treated like one.
Jacoby Ellsbury
This might be blasphemous since any and all talk I hear about Jacoby Ellsbury these days is glowing recommendations about how great a baseball player he is or how great a baseball player he is going to be, but I’m here to extend a bit of caution with regards to Ellsbury this season. Let me preface this by saying Ellsbury is a very nice prospect, but I’m not sure how great of a fantasy option he’s going to be this year. Even if Ellsbury gets the majority of the playing time his brief stint with the Red Sox last year isn’t indicative of the player he was in the minors. In Ellsbury’s minor league career which extends over 1000 AB’s, his Slugging % was a measly .426 and he hit a total of 10 HR’s and 74 extra base hits. Add in his 52.5% GB Rate last year and I can’t possibly see how he builds on last season’s success from a power perspective. Without much power, Ellsbury becomes someone very reliant on his BA, Runs scored, and SB output. These are two categories in which I think Ellsbury can provide some value, but expecting him to top his .314 career minor league average also seems a bit unreasonable. Add in the playing time concerns with Coco Crisp hanging around and I can’t see Ellsbury having much value in Mixed Leagues.
