John Maine:
A couple home starts seemed to be all John Maine needed to get back on track. Maine posted his 2nd consecutive quality start as he limited the A's to 5 base-runners and 2 ER's in his 7 innings of work. He struck out 6 while picking up his 8th win of the season and seems to have gotten back to what worked for him earlier in the season, mainly throwing strikes. In 32 2/3 June innings Maine has only walked 4 batters while striking out 21. While the reduced K Rate could be of concern, the more important thing is the significantly reduced BB Rates. Maine's only real weaknesses right now are his control and his propensity for HR's. If Maine can tighten up just one of those his indicators will be far more representative of the current numbers he's posting in ERA and WHIP. Right now he's still benefiting from good fortune in both his Strand Rates .81 and low BHIP% of .251, so there's still some regression left in his current numbers that might pull him closer to the low 3's than the high 2's he's currently posting in ERA.
Sean Marshall:
Another impressive performance for the young Cubs LH who I'm still trying to come around on here in the 2007 season. Marshall put together his 6th quality start in 7 tries by tossing 6 1/3 shutout innings against the struggling White Sox. He struck out 3 and walked 1 while surrendering 5 hits and improved his record to 4-2 on the season. Marshall's improvements in his K and BB Rates so far this season are very impressive and the primary reason he's become a trendier FA pickup and recommendation by most experts. However he continues to struggle with the HR Ball (allowing 6 HR's in 44 innings so far) and he's had the good fortune of an inflated Strand Rate (.83) and BHIP% (.245). If Marshall's K and BB Rates continue to remain strong (only 12 K's and 6 BB's in last 24 1/3 innings) he could post a solid mid 3's ERA the rest of the season, however I think Marshall's good fortune early in the season will catch up with him and he'll more closely resemble a low 4's ERA pitcher with limited upside. I still don't believe he can maintain the strong K Rate and while the improved BB Rates are extremely important to his success, I think he'll continue to get stung by his propensity to give up the HR Ball.
Yovani Gallardo:
Gallardo was very impressive again on Sunday as he mowed down the Royals over 7 dominant innings. He only allowed 7 base-runners and 1 ER while striking out 8 and left the game in line for a win only to see the bullpen surrender his lead. The thing that impresses me most about Gallardo is that he relies heavily on his command and not his stuff. This in my mind is the primary difference between Gallardo and someone like Tim Lincecum who relies heavily on his tremendous stuff and at times struggles locating. For this reason I think Gallardo is the safer bet to offer more consistent production throughout the season and should be owned in all formats. He'll keep his rotation slot even when Capuano comes back as he might be the 2nd best pitcher on their entire staff right now.
Bronson Arroyo:
Arroyo's numbers don't look very pretty right now, but Sunday's start was another step in the right direction. After a span in which he allowed 6 ER's or more in 5 of 6 outings, Arroyo put together a quality start despite scattering 10 hits. He allowed 3 ER's while walking 1 and striking out 4. So far this season Arroyo's been plagued by a bit of bad luck with a BHIP% that's about 40 points higher than his 3 year average and a Strand Rate of .66 that's a bit lower than average. The one disappointing indicator for Arroyo has been his control which has usually been consistently above average throughout his career has regressed a bit, but this can be traced back to a 6 start span in May that was started with 3 consecutive games in which he totaled 366 pitches. In those 6 starts Arroyo posted a BB Rate of .52, in his other 10 starts this season he's posted a BB Rate of .28 which is right in line with his career numbers. The 6 start span was an anomaly caused by the Reds ridiculous over-use of Arroyo, take those out and his numbers are much closer to last season's breakout campaign.
Adam Dunn:
Dunn's recent hot streak in June (a .307 average) has brought his 2007 batting average up to .271. In light of the recent hot streak, I'm going to continue to reiterate my sell high recommendation on Dunn. Dunn's batting average is simply being supported by a .270+ BHIP%, which doesn't sound very high, but is approximately 62 points bigger than his 3 year average. Dunn will remain a fantastic power option going forward, but his EYE has actually regressed this season as his K Rate has increased and his BB Rate has declined. There's no logical reason why Dunn's batting average should have increased this much other than being the beneficiary of some good luck.
