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2003

Prospect Central: Volume 12 - By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at five players who recently made their major league debuts.

 DAVID KELTON – 3B/1B/OF

Organization: Chicago Cubs

Acquired: Chicago’s second round pick in 1998 draft.

Bats: Right

DOB: 12-17-1979

David Kelton is a good prospect that, at various times throughout his pro career, has been a third baseman.  At the same time, the Chicago Cubs have been desperate for a new third baseman all year and rumors of Mike Lowell and other third baseman coming via trade to Chicago have been swirling around Wrigley Field all season long.  That tells you just about all you need to know about what the Cubs think of David Kelton’s defense at third base, as does the fact that, since they called him up on June 9th, he has been playing exclusively left field.

Kelton played third base early in his career and struggled with throwing errors.  He moved across the diamond to first base for most of last season and then made the switch back to third base to start this season. In what was likely his last real shot at being a third baseman, Kelton continued to have problems throwing the ball and committed a dozen errors in just 33 games there, before being moved out to left field.

Kelton has good range and athleticism at third base and his hands are certainly good enough to play there, but he has a lot of trouble making consistent throws across the diamond.  Some of the problems are likely mental and some may come from the fact that he had shoulder surgery while in high school.  He’s not as bad as Chuck Knoblauch was at second base near the end of his career, but Kelton has had bouts this season and throughout his career when he is far from someone you could trust playing the position.

Offensively, there is little doubt that Kelton can be a valuable player in the major leagues.  He hit just .261 last season and had a poor BB/K ratio (52/129), but led the Southern League (AA) in extra-base hits (54) and runs batted in (79).  He slugged .462 and even stole 12 bases.  In 2001, Kelton hit .313 and smacked 25 extra-base hits in just 58 games. 

While at Triple-A this year, Kelton was once again doing very well offensively.  He cut down on the strikeouts a little bit, walked a little more often, and got his batting average back above .300, all while continuing to show solid power.

At this point, left field appears to be Kelton’s major league position.  As a third baseman, where the average MLB player is hitting .259/.334/.420 this year, Kelton’s offensive abilities could make him a potential star.  As a left fielder, where the average MLB player is hitting .276/.355/.464 this season, he is more than likely just an average player.

I think Kelton will eventually develop into a solid .270+ hitter with 20+ homers and lots of doubles in the majors leagues.  He’ll always strikeout quite a bit and isn’t likely to post outstanding on-base percentages, but his overall numbers could go up a bit once he is totally free from worrying about playing third base.  His defense in left field is still relatively unknown, but problems out there aren’t nearly as important as in the infield.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B

Organization: Cleveland Indians

Acquired: Signed by Cleveland as an un-drafted free agent from Dominican Republic in 1999.

Bats: Right

DOB: 5-28-1982

In a Cleveland organization loaded with good prospects, Jhonny Peralta is often overlooked.  Since signing with the Indians back in 1999, Peralta has shown flashes of brilliance.  He hit .303/.397/.514 in his first taste of pro-ball and hit .281/.343/.457 last year in Double-A.  He has also struggled at several stops, including this year when he hit just .256/.310/.335 in Triple-A, before the Indians called him up last week.

The main thing Peralta has in his favor is youth.  He just turned 21 years old last month and already has a full-season under his belt at Single-A and Double-A, as well as 200+ at bats at Triple-A.  The fact that he was not only able to hold his own but also have several successful stints while being one of the youngest players at each level is very impressive and bodes well for his future.  The ability to have an outstanding season (.281, 15 homers, 28 doubles) at Double-A at the age of 20 is particularly impressive.

Peralta has been playing shortstop throughout his minor league career, including this season at Triple-A.  However, Indians’ long-time shortstop Omar Vizquel has already bumped Brandon Phillips from shortstop to second base and, assuming Vizquel returns to full-strength after his current injury, Peralta may eventually be moved over to third base.  Right now he’s an average defensive shortstop, but could potentially be very good defensively at third base and, as he matures and gets bigger, he may have been forced from shortstop regardless of who else the Indians had there.

While numbers tell quite a big portion of a player’s story, the context those numbers were accumulated in tell a lot too.  The fact that Peralta was able to have an outstanding season at Double-A at age 20, hitting for a good average, good power and showing decent plate discipline – all while playing good defense at shortstop – is very impressive. 

Peralta’s stint in the majors could be a short one this time and that is likely what is best for his development.  He is still extremely young and has not shown that he has mastered minor league pitching yet.  He’s definitely a solid “sleeper” prospect, particularly because of his slow start this season.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

ZACH SORENSEN – IF

Organization: Cleveland Indians

Acquired: Cleveland’s second round pick in 1998 draft.

Bats: Switch

DOB: 1-3-1977

If everything breaks right for Zach Sorensen, he’ll have a long career as a utility player in the major leagues – the role he is serving on the Indians right now. 

Sorensen’s offensive numbers aren’t impressive and he isn’t particularly fast or great at any single aspect of the sport, but he can play a lot of positions capably, switch-hits, has a little bit of pop in his bat and is generally the type of player a manager likes to have on his bench. 

So far this year in the minors, Sorensen has appeared 29 times at 2B, 3 times at 3B, 6 times at SS and 9 times in the outfield.  The time in the outfield is relatively new for him, but any additional defensive flexibility he can add will only help his chances of sticking somewhere for a while.

Sorensen was a second-round pick by the Indians back in 1998 and really has not hit at all since he batted .300 in 200 at bats during his pro debut that same year.  The next year he hit just .238 in Single-A, followed that up with .259 at Double-A in 2000 and has hit .243, .232, .264 and .223 in his four stops over the last 3 seasons.

He could have a nice career as the 24th or 25th man on the bench for some team (ala Denny Hocking) or he could struggle to latch on somewhere and spend the next 10 years playing all over the field in Triple-A – it’s really all up to luck, because there are dozens of guys just like Sorensen all over baseball and only a limited number of utility bench jobs to go around.

Gleeman long-term grade: C-

MIKE NAKAMURA – RP

Organization: Minnesota Twins

Acquired: Signed by Minnesota as un-drafted free agent in 1997.

Throws: Right

DOB: 9-6-1976

If you trust minor league numbers over what a player looks like in a uniform (which I do), Mike Nakamura is a nice relief pitcher prospect.  He’s about 5’10 (standing on his tip-toes) and 175 pounds (with a roll of quarters in his pocket), he doesn’t throw particularly hard and he was signed by the Twins as an un-drafted free agent in 1997.  What he does have on his side are minor league numbers that speak for themselves.

In 169 Single-A innings from 1998-2000, Nakamura had a 2.70 ERA and struck out 155 batters (8.3/9 IP) while walking only 55.  He moved up to Double-A in 2001 and posted a 1.77 ERA, along with an incredible 109/24 strikeout/walk ratio in 86 innings pitched.  Last year, at Triple-A, Nakamura again had an outstanding K/BB ratio (80/22), although his ERA was pretty high.  And, before the Twins called him up a couple of weeks ago, he had a 2.01 ERA and 55 strikeouts in just 40 innings of work at Triple-A Rochester this year.

With his unorthodox, semi-sidearm delivery, Nakamura gets a lot of movement on his pitches, which helps make up for what is not overpowering overall stuff.  He is particularly tough on right-handed batters.  The Twins are using him at the back of their bullpen right now because of injuries, but Nakamura definitely deserves a serious look and a chance at a full-time job in the future.

He turns 27 in a couple of months, so he’s as ready as he’ll ever be and I am confident he can be a good relief pitcher at the major league level.

Gleeman long-term grade: C+

EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks

Acquired: Signed by Arizona as un-drafted free agent out of Dominican Republic in 1997.

Throws: Right

DOB: 2-23-1983

The Diamondbacks called Edgar Gonzalez up from Triple-A on June 2nd, gave him a couple of starts (11 IP, 5.73 ERA) and then sent him right back down to Tucson.  Gonzalez’s MLB debut means he made the jump from Single-A to the majors in less than half a season.  Gonzalez began this year at Double-A, posted a 3.50 ERA in 36 innings and then was promoted to Triple-A, where he had a 3.00 ERA in 39 innings.

The incredibly aggressive promotions by the D-Backs are more than a little curious considering Gonzalez doesn’t turn 21 until February and had a total of 174 innings pitched in his entire professional career before this season.

Gonzalez’s strikeout rates have never been very good.  He K’d 6.77 per game last year in two Single-A stops combined and has only 50 strikeouts in 75 minor league innings this year (along with nine Ks in 11 MLB innings).  What has been great are his ERAs (2.91, 0.78, 3.50, 3.00) and his control.  Despite the low strikeout numbers, Gonzalez’s K/BB ratios have been very solid:  131/37 last year, which is excellent, and 50/16 this season.  He has also done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark, giving up a total of only 7 homers in 249 minor league innings in his career.

I am hoping his brief stint in the majors was only done because Arizona needed him for a couple of emergency starts and was not part of Arizona’s overall plan for Gonzalez.  At 20 years old, he definitely needs more time in the minors.  If he can improve upon his strikeout rate, he has a chance to be a very good pitcher, but the D-Backs need to be patient.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

Past subjects of Prospect Central who recently made their MLB debuts...

Justin Morneau – Prospect Central: Volume Seven

“Justin Morneau was originally drafted as a catcher, but was quickly moved from behind the plate to first base, in the hopes that he would fully develop his offensive attack.  The decision seems to have worked out perfectly, because Morneau has one of the sweetest swings in baseball and is one of the best hitting prospects in the game.”

Jose Reyes – Prospect Central: Volume Six

“Jose Reyes is the best shortstop prospect in all of baseball – and he doesn’t turn 20 until next month.  Reyes will eventually be the future for the Mets at shortstop and that future may arrive very soon.”

Looking for Detailed Prospect Reports in 2004, become a member today.

Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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