Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. It is also important to double check starting lineups as news often breaks after this column is written. In the space below I will break down the best plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Weather Note:
Danger/Zone - Mets at Braves (These players will not be included in today's Fix as the weather situation is too bad to risk)
Keep an Eye On - White Sox at Royals
Twitter: If you can, it is a good idea to follow both me (https://twitter.com/leonem4444) and Drew (https://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) on Twitter. We often post updated thoughts as lineup and weather information becomes known.
Catcher
Top Play
Wilin Rosario (COL) - Despite the tough matchup against David Price, Rosario, salary aside, is the top catcher play of the day. He just absolutely mashes LHP to the tune of a 1.099 OPS. More specifically, at home versus LHP (91 PA's) Rosario has a 1.334 OPS.
Value Plays
AJ Pierzynski (TEX) - Pierzynski at home in Texas against a RHP is always a solid bet to return some value, and that is especially true today as he faces John Lackey who has yielded a huge .370 wOBA and 22.6 LD% to RHB since 2010. The last several years Pierzynski has a .340 wOBA and solid .182 ISO against RHP.
Ryan Doumit (MIN) - Doumit is very fairly priced and has a really good matchup today against Scott Kazmir who has allowed a .382 wOBA and 1.77 HR/9 to RHB in his last 127 IP against them, the worst pitcher splits on the day.
Another good value play, but one I don't like quite as much as Doumit or Pierzynski if price is equal, is Wilson Ramos. He faces off against Jeff Locke who has allowed RHB to hit 1.62 HR/9.
First Base
Top Play
Lance Berkman (TEX) - Berkman has done a ton of damage from the left side of the plate since 2011, posting a .242 ISO, 1.17 EYE and .974 OPS. Today, in Texas, against John Lackey, look for Berkman to have a big game.
Paul Goldschmidt going against a LHP is also always a near top play. The matchup is good too against Clayton Richard, I just prefer Berkman because he is cheaper on most sites and playing in Texas which is a far superior hitting environment to San Diego.
High Upside Value Plays
Travis Hafner (NYY) - Hafner looks rejuvenated playing in a platoon role for the Yankees. Today he is at home and can benefit from the short porch in RF. Hafner has a .370 wOBA and .204 ISO against RHP since 2011 and faces Bartolo Colon who has not been able to get LHB out since 2010 (.348 wOBA allowed). In particular, Colon's 1.61 HR/9 and 44.4 FB% allowed to LHB could result in a big game from Hafner.
Brandon Moss (OAK) - Like Hafner, Moss hopes to take advantage of the short porch in RF at Yankee Stadium, and he is also facing a HR prone pitcher. Phil Hughes gave up 2.01 HR/9 at home last year and 1.62/9 the year before. Meanwhile, Moss has shown big, big power against RHP since playing in primarily a platoon role in 2012 (.972 OPS, .315 ISO).
Cheap Plays
Eric Hosmer (KC) - Hosmer is off to a bit of a slow start, particularly power wise, but I still like him to have a solid year. He's very cheap on a lot of sites and has a solid matchup today against Dylan Axelrod who has allowed a .332 wOBA and 1.52 HR/9 to LHB.
Mitch Moreland (TEX) - Moreland does not hit in as friendly of a spot in the order as Hosmer but does hit in a much hitter friendly ballpark. He also has a solid matchup against John Lackey, who as I wrote before really struggles against LHB (.370 wOBA allowed). For his career, Moreland has a .904 OPS at home against RHP with a very strong .231 ISO.
Second Base
Top Play
Robinson Cano (NYY) - Today's top 2B play is a no brainer, if you can afford it. Cano is at home where he had a ridiculous 1.176 OPS against RHP last year. Today he faces Bartolo Colon who gives up 1.61 HR/9 to LHB and a .348 wOBA.
Value Play
Ben Zobrist (TB) - Zobrist's price and position very from site to site so that will certainly factor into his value today. In general, he is a solid play. He is hitting in Coors Field, the best hitter's park in MLB, and his opposing SP, Jon Garland, has allowed a .339 wOBA and 1.04 HR/9 to LHB since 2010. Zobrist has a .351 wOBA and .196 ISO against RHP the last couple of years.
Cheap Plays
Danny Espinosa (WAS) - Espinosa is a much better hitter from the right side of the plate (.796 OPS) than he is from the left side (.688 OPS). He will be hitting from that side today against Jeff Locke whose 1.62 HR/9 allowed to RHB give Espinosa plenty of upside at a really cheap tag on a lot of sites.
Kelly Johnson (TB) - I prefer Espinosa to Kelly Johnson, but KJ is a really good cheap play today, too. For a MI, he hits for good power against RHP (.186 ISO), and as I said before, Garland is not very good against LHB. Obviously the game being played in Coors Field helps too.
Brian Dozier could also be used as a desperation cheap play leading off against the very hittable Scott Kazmir.
Shortstop
Troy Tulowitzki at home against a LHP leaves him as the top SS play of the day today. However, I don't like him as much as the top plays at other positions today, so I'll likely fill in with one of the value plays.
In fact, I really don't like the SS position at all today, and my strategy will likely be to take the cheapest of the four value plays listed before.
Value Plays
Elvis Andrus (TEX) - Andrus has speed an on base ability (.345 OBP against RHP). Those two skills and Andrus' lineup spot (hitting second) should be enough for him to derive value today as it's likely the Rangers, facing John Lackey today, are able to put up a handful of runs.
Jed Lowrie (OAK) - Lowrie, hitting in Yankee Stadium against HR prone Phil Hughes, likely has the most upside of the 4 SS listed here. However, he is also likely the most expensive and is not as good of a hitter from the left side of the plate as he is from the right side of the plate.
Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) - This is a situation similar to Andrus. Asdrubal hits in a fantasy friendly spot in the lineup (third) for a team that should score some runs today. The total in the game is 9, tied for the highest of the day. His individual matchup against Kevin Correia is also favorable as Correia has a 4.68 FIP against LHB.
Erick Aybar (LAA) - Aybar is leading off for the Angels against Freddy Garcia who had a 5.20 ERA last season. Overall, Garcia has allowed a .347 wOBA to LHB since 2010, so look for the speedy Aybar to get on base a couple of times and hopefully steal a bag or score a run.
Third Base
Top Play
Adrian Beltre (TEX) - Beltre has posted impressive OPS' the last two season at home against RHP (1.059 in 2012, .948 in 2011). He faces John Lackey who by now you know I expect to give up some offense to the Rangers. Lackey has allowed a .329 wOBA and 1.15 HR/9 to RHB since 2010.
Best Value Play
Trevor Plouffe (MIN) - In this space before I've talked about how a large proportion of Plouffe's power numbers comes against LHP so this is an ideal matchup against Scott Kazmir who has allowed a whopping 1.77 HR/9 to RHB thanks to a huge 48.5 FB%. Plouffe has a .259 ISO against LHP.
Value Plays
Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) - Zimmerman's injury and slow start has his price depressed today, and he has a really strong matchup. Zimmerman has a .370 wOBA against LHP the last couple of years, and he faces Jeff Locke today who I've already shown is bad against RHB particularly when it comes to allowing the long ball. The only reason I have Plouffe ranked higher is I was surprised to see that Zimmerman's power against LHP isn't all that great (.162 ISO since 2011).
Pablo Sandoval (SF) - The hitting environment in SF isn't great but Sandoval has a .306 BA and .225 ISO against RHP since 2011. Today he faces Matt Magill who is making his second career start and has a ZIPS projected ERA of 4.91.
Cheap Play
Conor Gillaspie (CHW) - Gillaspie is priced really cheaply on most sites and in a very small sample size has hit RHP very well (.376 wOBA in 97 PA's). He faces Jeremy Guthrie today who has allowed a .349 wOBA to LHB since 2010.
Outfield
Top Play
Josh Willingham (MIN) - By now you can probably tell that I'm pretty determined to get a Minnesota HR against Scott Kazmir. The most likely candidate to do so is Josh Willingham who has some really elite power numbers against LHP the last few years. In his last 391 PA's against LHP, Willingham has hit 28 HR, achieving a .294 ISO in the process.
Other top plays include Alex Gordon, Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Cuddyer.
Best Value Play
David Murphy (TEX) - Murphy has burned us in this space a couple of times before, but this is a strong percentage play. Murphy is at home, against a RHP (.351 wOBA) and that RHP struggles to get LHB out (.370 wOBA allowed). At his cheap price on most sites you can pretty much lock Murphy in.
Value Plays
Matt Joyce (TB) - Joyce has found his power stroke as of late which instills some confidence in using him as a splits play. On sites that don't price for splits, it's difficult to not have Joyce in your lineup against Jon Garland in Coors Field. Since 2010, Joyce has a .361 wOBA and .218 ISO against RHP.
Josh Hamilton (LAA) - Yes, Hamilton swings at pretty much everything, but with a deflated price going up against Freddy Garcia he is pretty difficult to pass on. Garcia, as I stated before, had a 5.20 ERA last season. Furthermore, Garcia gave up 1.51 HR/9 last year, and since 2010 he has allowed a .347 wOBA and 1.23 HR/9 to LHB. Hamilton has an .899 OPS against RHP since 2011.
Other value plays include Cody Ross (mashes LHP), Andre Ethier, Alejandro de Aza, Nick Markakis and Seth Smith.
Top 5 to Homer
Last time I went 1 for 5 which isn't terrible (these are low % guesses), but let's see if I can get 2 HR out of my top 5 today:
1. Josh Willingham
2. Wilin Rosario
3. Trevor Plouffe
4. Brandon Moss
5. Robinson Cano
Starting Pitcher
The top 4 starting pitchers today (Cole Hamels vs. MIA, Adam Wainwright @MIL, Max Scherzer @HOU, Stephen Strasburg @ PIT) all have such superb matchups, that I will likely try to grab two of the four on multiple SP sites and use cheaper value play type hitters in order to fit them in. One one SP sites, I am playing...
Top Play
Max Scherzer (DET) - With four great SP matchups to pick from, I am playing the guy with the highest strikeout upside, and that has to be Max Scherzer. Last season, Scherzer had an absolutely elite 29.4 K%. Well, so far this season he has somehow managed to be better and by quite a bit actually, posting a 36.2 K%. With a matchup against MLB's most strikeout prone team in the Astros (27.4 K% against RHP), it's not that much of a stretch to see Scherzer posting double digit strikeout numbers, which gives him the upside edge over the other starting pitchers in action today.
Following Scherzer, I like Cole Hamels the most. The Marlins are throwing out atrocious lineups and at -230, the Phillies are the largest favorite on the day, making Hamels the most likely SP to get a W today. Following Hamels, I slightly prefer Strasburg to Wainwright, but if you are going to be risk averse, Wainwright is probably safer due to some concerns over Strasburg's arm.
I'm not even listing value plays today because I think you have to utilize these top four SP and let price dictate which ones you use. If I were to take a value plays, it would be Jose Fernandez who I think just has far and away the more superior skills relative to the other SP priced around him.
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