Fantistics Player Projections utilize
a time tested forecasting algorithm that has allowed us to maintain our
status as a leader in fantasy baseball forecasting. Year after year
Fantistics Player Projections are at the top of the various studies
conducted by independent research (2004-2008,
2012 study ).
Despite the success, statistical correlation
(see links above) does not tell the entire story. Among other things, to
win a fantasy baseball league, you also need to draft players that are in
line for a breakout season and draft them before the rest of the field.
Below is a partial list of players that
Fantistics went "out on the limb on" in 2012. (2013
BREAKOUTS posted in software) These are players (in
this case based on a typical 5x5 Rotisserie league) that
Fantistics felt would have a better season than the rest of the fantasy
community believed was likely during the preseason of 2012. Looking back
at 2012, there were a number of good forecasts that helped our
subscribers. Most notably were calls on Yu Darvish, Paul GoldSchmidt,
Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Rios, Austin Jackson, Aaron Hill, Chris Sale, Allen
Craig, Edison Volquez, Alfonso Soriano, and RA DIckey who we had 3+ rounds ahead of their ADP.
Next to each players
name is the consensus ADP or Average Draft Position from 5 major online
commissioner services (Including ESPN, Yahoo, CBS). ADP is a
representation of where players are being drafted in individual league
drafts. The result is an average ADP, specifying what round and selection
within that round where these players are being drafted. The results were
normalized for a typical 12 man league. Thus a ADP of 9.11 would represent
selection in the 9th round and the 11th slot within that round.
The column following ADP in the list below is where
Fantistics Software (fantasy baseball projections) ranked these players during the preseason of 2012.
The last column (early) represents the net number of rounds that
Fantistics was ahead of ADP. We've also included a few notes that were
included in our baseball projections software for the first few examples:
The bottom line: This is the value that a
Fantistics subscription brought to it's members in 2012. But winning a
Championship involves more than just drafting the players that are
undervalued or on the verge of breaking out. It also involves staying away
from the players that are over valued. The list below is represents the
players that our player projections software steered subscribers away from
in 2012 (our trap players):
As much as we'd like to believe that we have
a crystal ball, we certainly don't. As mentioned above, our projections
are based on a set of fundamentally sound sabermetric indicators.
Indicators that have a higher probability of success, but by no means are
100% accurate when accessing future performance. Below is a listing of
players that we overvalued coming into 2012:
pride ourselves with player accuracy rates that consistently hovers around
70% in predicting whether or not a player will have a better/worse season
than the previous season. A blind mean would of course be in the 50%
range, and as any casino will tell you...anytime you can stack the odds in
your favor beyond a 51% threshold, you are rigging the system in
the original question, are all fantasy baseball projections and ranking
systems the same or not better than the ADP consensus? You decide...