2014 MLBTM Player Projections
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"Are all Fantasy Baseball Projections and Rankings the same and or more beneficial than ADP?"

Fantistics Player Projections utilize a time tested forecasting algorithm that has allowed us to maintain our status as a leader in fantasy baseball forecasting. Year after year Fantistics Player Projections are at or near the top of the various studies conducted by independent research (2004-2008, 2009 study, 2010 study, 2012 study, 2013 study).

Despite the success, statistical correlation (see links above) does not tell the entire story. Among other things, to win a fantasy baseball league, you also need to draft players that are in line for a breakout season and draft them before the rest of the field.

Below is a partial list of players that Fantistics went "out on the limb on" in 2013. (see 2014 BREAKOUTS posted in our software) These are players (in this case based on a typical 5x5 Rotisserie league) that Fantistics felt would have a better season than the rest of the fantasy community believed was likely during the preseason of 2012. Looking back at 2013, there were a number of good forecasts that helped our subscribers. Most notably were calls on Ian Desmond, Shin-Soo Choo, Chase Utley, Kendrys Morales, Michael Cuddyer, Hunter Pence, Carlos Gomez, Jayson Werth, Jason Grilli, Jonathan Lucroy, Grant Balfour, Dominic Brown, Manny Machado, Hyun-jin Ryu, Julio Teheran who we had 2+ rounds ahead of their ADP.

Next to each players name is the consensus ADP or Average Draft Position from 5 major online commissioner services (Including ESPN, Yahoo, CBS). ADP is a representation of where players are being drafted in individual league drafts. The result is an average ADP, specifying what round and selection within that round where these players are being drafted. The results were normalized for a typical 12 man league. Thus a ADP of 9.11 would represent selection in the 9th round and the 11th slot within that round.

The column following ADP in the list below is where Fantistics Software (fantasy baseball projections) ranked these players during the preseason of 2014. The last column (early) represents the net  number of rounds that Fantistics was ahead of ADP. We've also included a few notes that were included in our baseball projections software for the first few examples:

The bottom line: This is the value that a Fantistics subscription brought to it's members in 2013. But winning a Championship involves more than just drafting the players that are undervalued or on the verge of breaking out. It also involves staying away from the players that are over valued. The list below is represents the players that our player projections software steered subscribers away from in 2013 (our trap players):

As much as we'd like to believe that we have a crystal ball, we certainly don't. As mentioned above, our projections are based on a set of fundamentally sound sabermetric indicators. Indicators that have a higher probability of success, but by no means are 100% accurate when accessing future performance. Below is a listing of players that we overvalued coming into 2013:

We pride ourselves with player accuracy rates that consistently hovers around 70% in predicting whether or not a player will have a better/worse season than the previous season. A blind mean would of course be in the 50% range, and as any casino will tell you...anytime you can stack the odds in your favor beyond a 51% threshold, you are rigging the system in your favor.

Back to the original question, are all fantasy baseball projections and ranking systems the same or not better than the ADP consensus? You decide...

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