Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Atlanta Braves
Schwellenbach was a fan-favorite pick in drafts this year as a sleeper pick, and deep gambler's pick for Cy Young if you're into that sort of thing. He did everything he could to validate both of those, tossing 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K. He only allowed six hard hit balls and a whopping 39 CSW%. While the Marlins are not a super competitive offensive lineup, that rate is impressively high, nonetheless. His fastball led the way with a 48% Whiff rate, even though he threw it 42% of the time. This was an absolute bullying of an outing, and the breakout is real. Buy before you can't afford it.
Chase Dollander, SP, Colorado Rockies
The 9th overall pick in the 2023 Draft will get called up for his big league debut. As a prospect, Dollander is loaded with green flags. He struck out 33.9% of batters in 118 minor league innings last year, while only walking 9.4%. He also posted a respectable 29% CSW and strong .53 HR/9. He throws hard, averaging 97.4 in his lone AAA start, and the fastball has all the fancy metrics we need it to have. Unfortunately, Dollander is a horrible fit for Coors, and it is a serious problem for his fantasy value. While Dollander has never displaced a homerun problem, the vertical nature of his fastball lends itself to flyballs. He only got groundballs at 36.6% in the minors last year, and let up flyballs at 40%. His 37.9% Pull against is right in line with big league average. This is just a really bad fit, and while I love the player, I view him more as a spot starter during away games.
Brice Turang, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Turang went 1-4, R, HR, 2 RBI on one hard hit ball. Turang traditionally relies on tremendous speed, contact, and discipline to drive offensive value, but there is quietly a bit more pop right now. He has a 47.6% Hard Hit rate and his 109.8 Max EV is a career high. His xwOBACON sits at .454. Turang's approach has taken a turn for the better. The meatball swing rate has jumped 16%, and while he might be whiffing at a rate above his career level, it all appears to be in zone, as his in zone swing rate is up, zone miss is up, and chase is down. This appears to be an exclusively beneficial change, and if it leads to slightly better quality of contact, it makes me more excited about Turang becoming a more complete player.
CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals
Abrams went 2-4 with a solo homer and 2 K. Abrams is well more than returning his ADP right now. He's running a 94.6 EV with .570 xwOBACON. He's striking out at a career high 26.9% and walking at a career low 3.8%. Luckily, this is just noise, as his underlying contact has not changed much. His whiff rate rate, chase rate, and zone contact are all near identical to his 2024 rates, so if the quality of contact has simply taken a step forward, that is overwhelmingly a good thing.
Jack Leiter, SP, Texas Rangers
Leiter is dealing with a blister, and will formally be placed on the 15-day IL. We've seen blisters frustratingly steal playing time from pitchers in the past. Aaron Sanchez comes to mind. The good news is that it is not a serious injury at all, and the bad news is that it can flare up or linger at any point. The former 2nd overall pick came into the season with moderate hype after a strong spring, and went 10 IP, 1 ER, 10 K in his lone two starts on the year. While the data is small, it's pretty strong. The .305 xwOBACON and 20% Hard Hit rate tell us he is limiting quality of contact. While he walked tons of guys in the spring, he has only walked guys at 2.8%. His 56% groundball rate and 8% Pull-Air rate crush big league averages. Both of those starts were excellent. Buy Low.
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