Kyren Paris, 2B, Los Angeles Angels
Paris went 1-3 with two punchouts on a quieter night. He's been scorching hot to start the season slashing .366/.458/.805 with a .511 xwOBACON and 60.7% Hard Hit rate. This is really impressive given his below average 87.3 EV and below average 25% LA Sweet Spot. Both figures are below the 25th Percentile. He's also whiffing at 41.1%. Paris' whiff problems have not led to a higher punchout rate (21.7) and his swing percentage is only slightly above average. He is over performing in two strikes counts, but it's unclear if pitchers aren't executing against him or if there is an approach change. Paris' 60.7% hard hit rate, good for 97th Percentile, and 87.3 EV mean his weaker contact is ultra-low EV. This is a tougher profile to evaluate as it can run in any direction. It's not obvious if his ability to have improved contact deeper in counts is innate, or if the ultra-wide EV variations are innate as well. We'll have to wait and see on this one.
Tyler Mahle, SP, Texas Rangers
Mahle spun a gem tonight going 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K. He only allowed three hard hit balls and posted a healthy 34% CSW. Mahle is a tough evaluation. He has three starts in a row of at least 5 IP and 1 ER or less, and hasn't given up more than three hits or two walks in any of those starts. While his league average 22% K rate is respectable, he's been able to perform this well with a well below average groundball rate (32.4%) and a slightly-worse than league average 44.1% hard hit rate. I'm not fully bought in, but I can't write him off. I view him as a spot-starter in advantageous matchups.
Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers offense forgot they had a baseball game to play today, and Greene was no exception. He went 0-4 with 3 Ks. It's been a brutal start to the year for the breakout pick so far. Greene is punching out at 39.7%, and his 33.3% whiff rate is not helping. His chase rate is up 9% from last year and his swing rate is up 6%. The increased aggression clearly hasn't helped. His xBA (.197) and xSLG (.359) are low simply due to the punchout rates. His .403 xwOBACON and 45.7% Hard Hit rate suggest the struggles are mainly swing decision driven. If he can tighten up the approach, I still believe there is a quality hitter here. Hold.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Perdomo is thriving batting behind Corbin Carroll. He went 1-5 with a R, HR, 3 RBI and 2 K on two hard hit balls. To say Perdomo's underlying metrics are video-game like would be an understatement, as I'm not sure someone could do this in a video game anyways. He is striking out at best-in-all-of-modern-baseball-history 2.9% and walking at 18.8%. He has a ridiculous 50% LA Sweet Spot and 47.6 Squared Up %. Even in a 74 plate appearance sample, these figures are extremely difficult to put up. Buy high.
Devin Williams, RP, New York Yankees
Williams pitched a clean 9th inning to pick up the save, allowing no hits nor walks, and striking out one. It's been a rough start for the formerly dominant closer, as his season ERA is now reduced to only 6.00. He's giving up barrels at an insane 20%, and his FB velocity is at a career low 93.4. Oddly enough his pitch shape has remained the same, but his whiff rate is down 16% compared to last year. It is hard to pinpoint if the declining velocity is the primary role player in the decline, seeing that his entire profile has changed based on 1 mph. That leads me to believe his execution thus far has been absolutely horrible, in which case, I anticipate some kind of bounceback.
