Bailey Ober, SP, Minnesota Twins
On the surface, Ober had a solid game, going 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. That being said, he allowed a whopping ten hard hit balls. Ober has an astronomical .462 xwOBACON against, driven by 56.5% Hard Hit rate. He's also walking a career high 13.9% of batters. His fastball velocity is at a career low 90.6. Do not start him.
Tristan Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Casas went 1-4 with a K and two hard hit balls. It has been a rough start to the year for the breakout candidate. Unfortunately for Casas, the underlying figures are pretty bad. He is whiffing at 34.3% and chasing at 29.7%. He's only hitting 31% of balls hard, and the .340 xwOBACON is below average. Casas struck out at 31.7% last year, and the whiff problems from last year have been carried into this year. He walked at 12.3% last year, but is only doing so at 6.5% now. The biggest concern is that Casas is swinging in-zone more now than ever in his career (75%), and it hasn't led to better contact. He's only making contact in the zone 1% more compared to last year. His meatball swing % is also at a career high, so Casas actually has solid swing decisions, but good swing decisions combined with higher swing rates hasn't led to more or better contact. This is a serious red flag.
Logan O' Hoppe, C, Angels
The catcher continued his hot start by going 3-5 with 2 R on three hard hit balls. He is slashing .359/.375/.769. This kind of production from the catching position is an insane advantage. However, O'Hoppe has some red flags that need to be discussed. He is striking out at 37.1% and walking at 2.9%. It is hard to strike out more than that, and hard to walk less. O'Hoppe has horrific contact (37.2% Whiff) and equally bad swing decisions (40% Chase). The only way to accomplish this while barrelling 33.3% of baseball is basically by mishitting zero baseballs when he makes contact. His .678 xwOBACON solidifies that. I actually really liked O'Hoppe last year, and still like him this year, but I guarantee the current production will absolutely not last. He may still settle in as a great fantasy catcher, but with this kind of performance, you need to sell high.
Quinn Priester, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Priester made his season debut, not long after being traded to Milwaukee. He posted a solid line, going 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. The one run came on a solo homer. He allowed six hard hit balls. While I appreciate the line from Priester, my main concern is that neither his sinker nor his cutter, his two most used pitches, produced a single whiff. Priester struggled in the whiff department last year (22.2%), mostly due to his heavy sinker profile, which admittedly get a plethora of groundballs (56.7%). Given the quantity of balls in play Priester will be facing, I have a hard time seeing him becoming fantasy relevant.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Caminero had a great day at the plate, going 3-4 with a R on two hard hit balls. The youngster is off to a mediocre start, slashing .282/.310/.410. Unfortunately, there are some solid holes in this profile right now, and the breakout is certainly not here. While Caminero has 100th Percentile bat speed, the quality of contact is nearly absent. He has exactly one barrel in 42 PAs, a 5th Percentile LA Sweet Spot %, and .309 xwOBACON. Luckily, Caminero is making solid swing decisions. His chase rate is still low, and he's attacking meatballs at a clip 19% higher compared to last year. His zone contact is up 12%. The good news is that he is becoming a better "hitter" but his ability to actually make clean contact is absent. If you're hoping the breakout is imminent, I would bet otherwise. This guy is a GREAT candidate for the torpedo bat if he doesn't already use one.
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