Max Meyer (MIA - SP) - Meyer was brilliant Monday, throwing 6 shutout innings against the Reds and striking out 14 without walking a man. To illustrate just how filthy his slider was: there were 21 swings on the 40 sliders he threw, and 16 were missed. Just nasty. He ended up picking up 24 swinging strikes on just 92 pitches, and while he does still allow some hard contact, the GB has continued to move up into the elite category (minimizing the damage of that hard contact), while the control has continued to improve. 43% sliders though, yikes. Ride him while you can.....this is the guy that I watched in the minors that I was sure was going to be a frontline starter.
Aaron Nola (PHI - SP) - It's a little early for me to be worried about a player, but Nola dropped to 0-5 on the season on Monday after allowing 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks over 6 1/3 innings while fanning 6. On the bright side, he's only gotten 10 runs of support in his 5 starts, most of which have come after he's left the game. He also had an xFIP coming into the contest of 3.44, right in line with last year's mark. The swinging strike rate has remained steady, the K rate is up, and the GB rate is up as well. The bad news seems worse to me than the good news seems good though. The walk rate is up substantially, the barrel rate has been creeping up for years, and perhaps most importantly, the velo is down pretty sharply this year. Nola hasn't had an ERA lower than his xFIP since 2018, so I'm not buying based on that number....not with him. The thing is, all of the advanced ERA metrics (SIERA, xERA) show that he's been very unlucky to start the year, and the 63.7% strand rate (something that won't be helped by today's 3-run HR allowed by Jose Ruiz that scored Nola's two runners), .377 BABIP, and 20% HR/FB rate can all lead you to that conclusion pretty easily. I don't need to know much to know that Nola isn't this bad, but he also is absolutely showing some deterioration over the past 4-5 years that might be accelerating. He's only 31, but I don't recall him missing a start since 2017, so there's a lot of mileage on that arm. Klaxons aren't going off here or anything, but we're moving from green to yellow over the past season-plus here.
Gavin Sheets (SD - 1B/OF) - Sheets singled and homered on Monday against the Tigers, and he's now hitting 344/388/557 for the year. The 28 year old had over 1400 uninspiring MLB PAs coming into this season, so what's changed? Mostly just a bunch of hard-hit line drives. The HH rate (balls hit over 95 mph) has jumped over 20%, and the LD rate has jumped over 15%. He still is an above average hitter for contact, but for a big guy he's never really leveraged that into any significant power. His max exit velocities have been average at best throughout his career, and he has no speed. It sounds like a lot of negatives from a scouting standpoint, but he's moved up into the Tatis/Machado/Xander part of the batting order, and that matters quite a bit. He started at 1B on Monday as well, which also can help his value. He certainly appears to deserve a roster spot in all formats right now, although I don't really love the ceiling here.
Kyle Manzardo (CLE - 1B?) - Manzardo homered for the 3rd straight game on Monday, giving him 7 and 17 RBI through 21 G. The AVG will be a bit more of a problem than we initially thought if this massive level of pull/FB is maintained, but the power will be maximized, and the plate discipline and contact rates have been extremely good. This version of Manzardo is a very good player in OBP-based formats, and he should get 1B eligibility before too long (he's at 4 G there in 2025 currently). I think you're seeing a hitter that is showing some gains, but some of them are coming in a fashion that is going to depress AVG a bit.
Tylor Megill (NYM - SP) - Megill was brilliant on Monday, whiffing 10 Phillies and allowing just 1 hit over 5 1/3 innings. He did walk 4 and hit a batter, but on 32 swings against him, the Phils only put 7 balls in play. This "new" sinker he's throwing has become his second most utilized pitch, and it's by far his most valuable pitch.....it simply doesn't get put into play. If you're looking for a reason (other than luck, of course) why his HR rate has dropped significantly over the past two years, I think you've found your culprit. The walk rate does worry me, but everything else looks pretty nice....I think he's a "mostly trustworthy" back-end arm for me at the moment.
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