Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs
Suzuki had a great day at the plate going 2-5 with R, 2 RBI, 2 K on two hard hit balls. Suzuki is seeing the ball excellently, as his 45.6% LA Sweet Spot is 96th Percentile. He's barreling 17.5% of baseballs. Given the quality of contact, his 27.7% K rate is tolerable, especially since he offsets it with 11.7% walk rate. Suzuki gets very little hype compared to his output right now.
Ryan Jeffers, C, Minnesota Twins
Jeffers went 1-4 with 1 K. He hit two balls hard. In two catcher leagues, Jeffers has a chance to be very relevant. Unfortunately, his .208/.311/.283 slash line is helping out nobody. The good news is that there is still reason to believe we have a decent hitter on our hands, and decent is an exciting word to describe your second catcher. Jeffers is running a career low 28.9% GB rate and career high 36.8% Flyball rate. His 21.1% Pull Air rate is right around his career average. He's walking at a career high 10.3%, and his 20.7% K rate is second lowest of his career. Jeffers is wildly underperforming, and is a solid buy low.
Christian Walker, 1B, Houston Astros
Walker went 3-3 with a R and RBI on two hard hit balls. Walker has been a very consistent hitter over the past several seasons, so this is encouraging to see given the veteran's slow start. Walker was a high-impact, low-contact profile last year, so the lack of contact this year isn't surprising, but the power is more mediocre right now. He's barreling balls at 10% and hitting the ball hard at 42%, both respectable figures. Unfortunately, his GB% has spiked 10 points to 48%, going from below league average to above. He's also popping up at 14%. Walker has a long track record of a consistent shape in the distribution of his launch angles, so this feels like some small sample bias. I'd expect a bounce back, and would hold onto him.
Pavin Smith, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Smith had a great day going 2-3 with 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, and BB on two hard hit balls. Smith has started off the season on a strong foot, slashing .397/.493/.759. The underlying data is very strong. He's barreling an insane 22.9% of baseballs, and finding the LA Sweet Spot at 48.6%. What's more incredible is that Smith is ultra-selective right now, swinging just 37.8% of the time. The low raw swing rate makes his 33.3% Whiff rate less meaningful. His zone contact is also down 7%, but the contact-impact tradeoff is well more than worth it. I prefer this version of Pavin Smith well more than his prior versions.
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Yelich went 2-5 with 2 R, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, and K on two hard hit balls. The .215/.333/.405 slash line isn't great for fantasy purposes, but under the hood Yelich is still a solid hitter. His .424 xwOBACON is just a touch below his career average. His Pull Air% is 13.2, the second highest rate of his career, and his 52.8% Hard Hit rate is 4% above his career average. Yelich is just pulling a ton of groundballs right now, 49.1% in fact. His next career high was only 39.3%, so that many pull ground balls is uncharacteristic. He sat in between 31% and 35% from 2018-2023. Once his horizontal launch angle distributions regresses, we'll see production more in line with career averages.
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