Hunter Greene-Red-SP
Hunter Greene went 7 IP and gave up 0 ER on 2 H, 1 BB, and 8 K's against the Pirates. Greene came into the game dominating (1.31 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and 27% K:BB) and left with a 0.98 ERA and 0.58 WHIP. He picked up where he left off last year (2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 18% K:BB). Greene has shown improved stuff this year. He is averaging 99.4 mph on his fastball, which has pushed his Stuff+ to 126. It has also allowed him to walk fewer batters (4% BB), which, if it held over the course of a full season, would help Greene stave off natural regression from his .175 BABIP and 3% HR/FB despite 65% FB. Either way, Greene has turned himself into an elite starter.
Cole Ragans-Royals-SP
Cole Ragans went 7.2 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 0 BB, and 10 K's against the Guardians. Ragans was excellent in his three starts prior to today (2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 30% K:BB). He has stated that he wants to eclipse the 200 IP mark after going 186.1 IP last year. Ragans has missed more bats this year (36% K), which is backed up by more swinging strikes (16% SwStr). It is a small sample, but he has paired more strikeouts with better control (6% BB). This would be a recipe to get to 200 IP, provided it was paired with good health. There is no doubt that Ragans is one of the best pitchers in the game. He gets a prime matchup against the Tigers in Detroit next week.
Hayden Wesneski-Astros-SP
Hayden Wesneski went 6 IP and gave up 3 ER on 5 H, 0 BB, and 10 K's against the Angels. He has a 4.00 ERA and 0.72 WHIP through his first three starts. He is making the transition to a full-time starter. He has started games each of the past three seasons but topped out at 11 GS in 2023. The Astros have a reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers, which appears to be the case so far with Wesneski. He doesn't have a huge ceiling but has enough skill (25% K and 7% BB) to be a back-end starter. The Astros have had him go away from his sinker and feature more four-seam fastballs and cutters. He has a six-pitch mix, which is more than enough to get by. Wesneski has shown good control throughout his career, and his swinging strike rate (14% SwStr) suggests he has more in the tank. He will get a home start against the Padres next week.
Casey Mize-Tigers-SP
Casey Mize went 5.2 IP and gave up 4 ER on 7 H, 0 BB, and 3 K's against the Twins. Through three starts, Mize has a 2.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 14% K:BB. He has missed more bats (27% K), which is backed up by more swinging strikes (12% SwStr). The only difference in his profile is fewer sliders and the addition of a curve. He doesn't have increased velocity, so this is likely a small sample blimp rather than a true breakout. His SIERA sits at 4.07, which is closer to what we should expect out of him given his skills than the minuscule ERA he has posted so far (0.77 ERA). Mize is still mixed league viable, but be cautious of him moving forward.
Shane Smith-White Sox-SP
Shane Smith went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 5 H, 2 BB, and 3 K's against the Red Sox. Smith has been a positive story for the White Sox to open the year. He has a 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 3.97 SIERA through three starts. Smith is still building up his pitch count and durability as a starter after starting games for the first time in his professional career outside the complex league. He pitched in 32 games in the minors, with 16 being starts. Smith has struck out 21% of batters, which isn't great, but his 12% swinging strike rate suggests there could be more. He is also getting a ton of ground balls (52% GB), which, if it holds above 50% for the season, will give him enough to work with to be a deep league starter. Smith has a four-pitch mix with his changeup being his best pitch. This is important because it will allow him to be effective against both sides of the plate. At this point, he is just a streamer in the right matchup but could develop into a back-end starter in deeper mixed league formats if the strikeouts come up and he holds the ground ball rate. Smith should be avoided in his start on the road against the Red Sox.
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