Happy St. Patrick's Day! The Luck o' the Irish hasn't been with several teams and players so far in Spring Training as a rash of injuries has hit them.
The first game that counts will be tomorrow when the Dodgers and Cubs face off in Tokyo. SS Mookie Betts may not be playing in the two games of the Tokyo Series. He has been suffering an illness that has forced him to miss the exhibition games that the Dodgers have been playing against Japanese teams. He is going to have a workout today to see if he will be up to playing tomorrow. Manager Dave Roberts is going to be conservative with Betts so don't be surprised if he doesn't make his season debut until the games are happening back in the US.
Most teams won't be opening the regular season for another week and a half. They are still in the process of determining who will be making their rosters and in their rotations. For two AL teams, their rotations are in flux due to injuries to starting pitchers.
The Yankees are down at least two starters with P Gerrit Cole out for the entire season after Tommy John surgery and P Luis Gil suffering a lat strain that will have him sidelined for at least 3 months. The injury bug has bit the Yankees yet again. P Clarke Schmidt had yesterday's start pushed back to today. Then he was scratched completely due to shoulder soreness. Schmidt doesn't have tests scheduled yet. He will toss in a bullpen today to see how he feels. With the way things are going, anything other than a lengthy shutdown of Schmidt will seem like a bonus.
There are multiple candidates to open the season in the Yankees' rotation with the IL filling up. P Marcus Stroman seemed to possibly have put himself in the doghouse when he reported to Spring Training stating that he wasn't going to pitch out of the bullpen. Now circumstances have developed to make his statement seem prophetic. Stroman has posted a 6.75 ERA in 6.2 Grapefruit League IPs. His ERA is projected to continue the rise it has made over the past few seasons and finish at 4.55 over 165 IPs. That's not a lot of fantasy value. P Will Warren is another arm in line to challenge for a spot in the depleted Yankees rotation. He is the highest-ranked prospect for the Yankees that is considered MLB-ready. Warren had control issues during a brief callup to NY in 2024, posting a 3.97 BB/9 in 22.2 IP. He has improved on that in the Grapefruit League, with a 1.72 BB/9 and 2.87 ERA in 15.2 IP. Warren's projection for 2025 is that he posts a 4.13 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and strikes out 162 in 170 IPs. He carries more future value than some of the other Yankee rotation candidates. P Carlos Carrasco is a veteran who may get pressed into service due to injuries to the Yankees rotation. He underperformed in 2024 with a 5.64 ERA but 47.71 xERA, 4.91 FIP, and 4.18 xFIP in 103.2 IP. The 37-year-old veteran has put up good Grapefruit League numbers with a 2.45 ERA in 11 IP, but his wildness (4.91 BB/9) has him with a 6.43 FIP. Carrasco's projected 4.85 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 124 IP doesn't make for excitement about his potential position in the Yankees rotation. P Allan Winans is a 29-year-old journeyman who has forced his way into the competition for a rotation spot. He has a 3.18 Grapefruit League ERA in 11.1 IPs but his 5.56 xFIP makes him a longshot. Winans was projected to be a low-leverage reliever, posting a 4.30 ERA with 54 Ks in 52 IP. In the Atlanta system in 2023 and 2024 he had profiled as a AAAA pitcher, with minor league success not translating into MLB results in brief call ups.
Another team suffering injuries that has them scrambling to rearrange their rotation is the Texas Rangers. Thankfully for them, P Jacob deGrom is not one of the casualties after missing almost all of the past two seasons. His outings this spring have been without incident. deGrom has reported no issues after Cactus League outings and workouts. He is projected to have a 3.24 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 200 Ks in 163 IP this year. His ADP of 4.03 is slightly overvalued compared to his 5.09 FDP, but he is still among the top starters.
It's other starters that have been hit by injury. P Jon Gray suffered a broken wrist in his last Cactus League start and will be out for an extended period of time. He won't be throwing for at least 6 weeks and if he need surgery that timeline would be extended. A groin strain limited Gray's 2024 season and now he will have another year curtailed. P Cody Bradford has elbow soreness and it will be at least another 4 weeks before he starts throwing again. In 2024 he posted a 3.03 ERA in 12 starts, striking out 68 batters in 74.1 IP. Bradford allowed 5 runs in a 2 IP relief stint, raising his overall ERA to 3.54. His status as a sleeper is downgraded because the Rangers are considering bringing him back as a reliever when his shoulder heals. That would allow them to get Bradford back earlier because he would not need to be stretched out as much. That plan may be impacted by how the pitchers who are inserted into the Texas rotation perform.
P Kumar Rocker is one of two top Texas prospects who have the inside edge to the open rotation spots. He is the #44 prospect in all of MLB. In 2024 Rocker had a successful return from Tommy John surgery, posting a 1.96 ERA in 36.2 IP. In a brief callup by the Rangers he struck out 14 in 11.2 IP and had a 3.86 ERA. Rocker's projection for 2025 is to post a 3.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and strike out 161 in 171 IP. His ADP of 23.04 and FDP of 23.07 are in line. P Jack Leiter has been slowly developing since being drafted by the Rangers 2nd overall in 2021. Actually, it only seems like it has been slow development because it feels like the Rangers have been touting him forever. Leiter put together a solid campaign at AAA Round Rock, with a 3.51 ERA and 12.86 K/9 in 77 IP. He got his first taste of MLB in spurts and it didn't go well. Leiter ended up with an ERA of 8.83, but his xFIP was a not-quite-as-horrible 5.27. He also was inconsistent. In his Dr. Jekyll appearances, he gave up 7 ERs and struck out 17 in 17.1 IP. As Mr. Hyde he allowed 28 ERs and struck out 14 in 18.1 IP. Leiter has added a sinker and changeup to his arsenal and has a 2.53 ERA in 10.2 Cactus League IP. His projection for 2025 is for a 4.31 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 170Ks in 163 IPs. Leiter is still projected as a work in progress but is a sleeper, especially in keeper leagues.
Injuries are impacting other teams and positions. SS Luisangel Acuna has a good shot at breaking camp with the Mets thanks to infield injuries. He broke into MLB last year, filling in for Francisco Lindor and slashed .308/.325/.641 with 3 homers in 40 PAs. Although Acuna didn't steal a base with the Mets he swiped 40 bags at AAA Syracuse. He improved his EV and HardHit% from Syracuse and had a 91.0 EV and 42.4% HardHit% after being promoted. Acuna is projected to retain his power and show his speed in the majors this season. He is projected to slash .262/.277/.463 with 18 homers and 18 steals in 390 ABs. Those numbers could change with the playing time he ends up with. Right now he is very undervalued with a 36.10 ADP and 20.05 FDP.
There was some good injury news out of Baltimore. SS Gunnar Henderson has been sidelined with an intercostal strain but has started ramping up baseball activities. He feels he will be ready for Opening Day. With projections of a .289/.370/.548 with 38 homers, 120 runs, 84 RBI, and 19 steals putting him in MVP contention, not missing time at the start of the season will keep his first-round draft status good.
Not everything going on in Florida, Arizona and Japan have to do with injury. There are still items of interest to analyze and consider as domestic Opening Day gets closer.
1B Jake Cronenworth was one of the 10 MLB hitters in 2024 with the biggest underperformance in AVG compared with xBA. His .241 AVG was 18 points less than his .259 xBA. Still, he is projected to have only a modest increase in AVG this season, to .246. Cronenworth's production in homers, runs, RBI, and steals are also projected to drop. His 15 homers, 68 runs, 67 RBI, and 4 steals do not make him impressive at 1B.
P Tanner Houck has served up only 32 homers in his 413 IPS since 2021. He is expected to do a similar job in 2025, with 13 homers allowed in 187 IPs. This helps his projected 3.63 ERA. Houck's IP total would help establish him as a workhorse and build on his 2024 season.
P Ronel Blanco burst onto the 2024 season with a no-hitter in his first outing. He finished the season with a 2.80 ERA in 167.1 IP. Blanco's xERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.00/4.15/4.09 show that he benefited from some good fortune. Expect some regression this season. Blanco is projected to have a 3.99 ERA with 180 Ks in 175 IPs. His ADP of 20.08 is probably reflecting some of the good luck of 2024 and his FDP of 26.09 takes his regression into account.
