As Spring Training rolls on, every day seems to bring up stories of injuries and prospects causing teams to examine who they are going to be putting on their rosters and in their starting lineups in a few weeks when the games start to count.
Giancarlo Stanton- DH- NYY- The injury news about Stanton continues to be negative. He will definitely start the 2025 season on the IL. He has received PRP injections in both elbows. Stanton can't swing a bat, which makes it impossible to function as a DH. He has been fragile in his career and he has become a one-dimensional player, with that dimension being power. Stanton had been projected to slug 30 homers for the first time since 2022, but missing the start of the season puts that in serious doubt.
Parker Meadows- OF- DET- Meadows has been shut down indefinitely due to a nerve issue triggered on a throw in his Grapefruit League debut. He won't be able to resume baseball activities until the feeling completely returns to his arm. It could be relatively soon or could linger. Meadows was projected to flirt with the 20/20 club, hitting 21 homers and stealing 17 bases. The longer he has to sit out the tougher it will be to get those numbers.
Luis Gil- P- NYY- Gil had an MRI on his pitching shoulder. Results will be forthcoming. He had cut short a bullpen session on Friday. Manager Aaron Boone was not optimistic, saying that the issue "feels like something that's going to cost us some time." Gil had a professional career high of 155.1 IP (including a start at AA last year. This was after pitching a total of 30.2 IP is the previous 2 seasons. His FDP has been adjusted down to 33.09, so his value has dropped with the injury news.
Blade Tidwell- P- NYM- Tidwell threw an immaculate inning in the second and final frame of his appearance for the Mets yesterday. He struck out 3 Rays with 9 pitches after retiring the 3 batters he faced in order in the 1st inning. This was a drastic change from Tidwell's Grapefruit League debut when the Cardinals touched him for 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk in 2 IP on February 24th. Control has been a challenge for Tidwell as he worked his way up the minors. He had registered a 2.65 BB/9 in his second stint at AA last year but then posted a 5.61 after being promoted to AAA Syracuse. He had a wide smorgasbord of pitches that he has now narrowed to 5 offerings. Tidwell has power that can brush against 100 mph. With some injuries among the Mets rotation Tidwell could get a chance to show what he can do in MLB. It will depend on how much his control has developed. Although he has been a starter in the minors, he has potential to be effective out of the bullpen. Right now Tidwell is one to keep on your radar but not spend draft capital on.
Hayden Birdsong- P- SF- Birdsong has yet to issue a walk in his 4 Cactus League IPs. He got whiffs in his MLB debut season in 2024 with a 27.9% K% but also had a 13.7% BB%. Birdsong is projected to strike out more than a batter per inning. The rest of his game after the 2024 season did not give him fantasy value. If Birdsong has conquered his control demons then he could be a sleeper, especially with his home starts coming in a pitchers' park.
Kumar Rocker- P- TEX- Rocker showed ability when he came back late last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Across 36.2 IP split between AA Frisco and AAA Round Rock he posted a 1.86 ERA and struck out 55 batters while walking just 5. Rocker got a taste of MLB, striking out 14 in 11.2 IP, walking 6, and registering a 3.86 ERA. He is likely to assume a substantial role in the Texas rotation and is projected to toss 164 IP with a 1.27 WHIP and 4.05 ERA while striking out 161 batters. Rocker is with a Texas team that is projected to be back in contention so his win total is also likely to help.
Paul Skenes- P- PIT- Skenes made his Grapefruit League debut. He was mortal, allowing a run on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 4 in 4 IP. The results mean as much as most spring games do, which is not much. Skenes was touching 99 mph on a consistent basis. He threw 54 pitches. In his stunning rookie campaign in 2024 Skenes didn't throw more than 107 pitches in any of his 23 starts. The Pirates were very careful with his usage. Including his AAA IP Skenes only threw 160.1 IP. At 22 years old, he is possibly still developing his arm and not stressing it is a good thing. Skenes is projected to bump his IPs up to 180 and post a 2.54 ERA, pretty much matching his xERA and xFIP from last year more than his 1.96 ERA. With 215 projected Ks, Skenes is ranked as the #1 available pitcher and should be a first round pick.
DJ Herz- P- WSH- Herz is a young (24 years old) pitcher who put in a decent rookie campaign and has potential to build on it. His 4.16 ERA across 88.2 IP underperformed his 3.26 xERA and 3.85 xFIP. Herz made a big jump in control, with a 3.65 BB/9, the lowest of his professional career. He also posted a 10.76 K/9, which was consistent with his minor league performance. Herz doesn't have a guaranteed spot in the Washington rotation, but he could still end up with the team in the bullpen and work his way into a starting role.
Kyle Manzardo- 1B- CLE- Manzardo is currently at the top spot on the Guardians' depth chart at DH but will also see time at 1B. He is projected to hit 17 homers in 363 ABs, but his playing time numbers may be higher which will send his power numbers up as well. Manzardo had a 40.0% HardHIt% in his 156 MLB PAs in 2024 and had a 9.5% Barrel% and 89.1 EV, so the power is there. He didn't hit for high average once he got to AAA, so that would be a downside reflected in his .246 projected average. Manzardo is being counted on to provide some of the homers that the departed Josh Naylor hit last season. That is probably too much to expect him to meet, but he could be worth a look very lates in the draft.
James Wood- OF- WSH- Wood is one of the highly regarded youngsters in DC. He arrived with much fanfare last year in the Nation's Capital. His 92.8 EV, 10.6% Barrel%, and 52.0% HardHit% were elite Statcast numbers. Wood slugged 9 homers in 336 MLB PAs. This year he is projected to boost his homer total to 32 in 561 ABs and slash .256/.341/485. After swiping 14 bases in 2024 Wood is projected to collect 24 steals this season. While some young players get overvalued due to hype, right now Wood is undervalued with a 5.04 ADP and 3.12 FDP. He is only 22 years old so ahs a lot of future value on the table.
Lance McCullers- P- HOU- McCullers hasn't pitched in a MLB game since game 3 of the 2022 World Series. He is attempting to comeback from a variety of injuries that have plagued him. Yesterday he threw live batting practice for the first time this spring. McCullers threw 20 pitches and hit 94.7 mph. The Astros have a rotation that is in flux. McCullers still has work to do to get back in as a starter but the opportunity is there. He is only 31 and only had an ERA above 4.00 in one of his seven MLB seasons and has a career K/9 of 10.02. McCullers performed well before injury and can be looked at as a sleeper as we head into 2025.
Wenceel Perez- 2B- DET- Perez has been a player who has kept filling out as he got older. This could be the year where adding some more muscle pays off in a significant way. There are also some injuries happening that could give Perez more playing time in the Detroit outfield. He is projected to raise his homer total from 9 to 13 despite his projected ABs dropping from 389 to 336. More playing time will generate more homers for Perez. His average is also projected to rise from .242 to .266. Right now he is undervalued with a FDP of 32.12 compared to his ADP of 43.12. Perez is one to keep on your late-round radar.
Nestor Cortes- P- MIL- At first thought, changing home parks to American Family Field wouldn't look like a good thing for Cortes. He is one of two pitchers in MLB last year who had a top-10 highest FB rate and a bottom-15 lowest HR/FB rate. The lefthander had the large Yankee Stadium left field to work with against RH hitters where Milwaukee is looked at as more hitter-friendly. The underlying stats don't show a problem, though. Yankee Stadium was 20% above MLB average in homers for RH hitters while AFF was still high, but only 11% more than average. Cortes allowed 22 of his 24 homers to RH hitters and 10 of those were at home. Overall Cortes is projected to have a 4.01 ERA for the Brewers with a 1.19 ERA. He's valued pretty fairly with a 26.06 ADP and 27.12 FDP.
Bowden Francis- P- TOR- Francis was sparkling in the last half of 24 after making the transition from reliever to starter. He had started the season in the rotation but after yielding 12 runs in 8.1 IP in his first 2 outings he was sent to the bullpen. Francis returned to the rotation for good on August 7th and from then on he posted a 1.53 ERA in 59 IP across 9 starts. Seven of those starts we of the quality variety. He was one of 4 pitchers to post a sub-2.00 ERA from August through the end of the season. There was good luck baked in there as his FIP was 3.42 and xFIP 3.75 in that stretch. Francis is projected to significantly regress this season with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP increasing from 0.93. He is overvalued right now with an ADP of 19.03 and FDP of 36.11.
Bryce Miller- P- SEA- Miller had the 3rd lowest BABIP among qualified pitchers in 2024 at .237. That's part of what explains the difference between his 2.94 ERA and 3.72 xERA. Miller is expected to regress some this year, with his ERA projecting to 3.44 and WHIP to rise from 0.98 to 1.13. He is still projected to strike out more than a batter per IP with 185 Ks in 182 IPs. Miller is still among the upper echelon of starting pitchers, ranked 19th and having a FDP of 8.03. He is currently being overvalued slightly with a 7.05 ADP.
