Relief in Minnesota
Twins' manager Rocco Baldelli has always relied heavily on his bullpen. His reluctance to let starters go deep in games provides fantasy owners with many options in the reliever market. The fact that Minnesota's pen is teeming with dangerous arms certainly adds to the allure.
Jhoan Duran has been electric as the team's primary closer over the past few seasons. He will continue that role again in 2025. However, Baldelli doesn't shy away from using Duran in the 8th, and being a one-inning guy (he completed 2.0 innings just twice last season), this decreases the save opportunities. Since breaking into the Bigs in 2022, the 27-year-old's ERA and WHIP have declined each season, but he was still filthy last season. Duran's velocity was still there (100.5 vFA), and with a 32.9% Whiff% (93rd percentile) and 28.9% K% (88th percentile), he was fanning plenty. Additionally, Duran's 61.7% GB% ranked in the 99th percentile, while his 3.5% Barrel% ranked in the 98th. I don't worry about the elevated 3.64 ERA; his 2.76 xERA and 2.70 xFIP better indicate how he pitched in 2024.
Griffin Jax made significant strides last season after posting a fantastic 2.03 ERA and a .87 WHIP. After providing decent but unremarkable aid to the Twins' pen in 2022-2023, he was one of the most effective relievers in the league in 2024. With a 38.3% Chase% (99th percentile) and 37.8% Whiff% (98th percentile), Jax posted a career-best 34.4% K%, which ranked in the 97th percentile. The batted ball stats weren't as sterling (8.0% barrel% and 38.7% HardHit%), but as always, avoiding contact altogether is the key. Jax is growing more confident in his pitch arsenal, as he varied his pitch selection a lot more last season. The Sweeper remains his favorite pitch, but after throwing it an astounding 52.7% of the time in 2023, he trimmed that to 37.5% in 2024. The more even pitch mix--and the introduction of a new pitch (curveball)--seems to be the root of Jax's dramatic improvement and made his upper 90s velocity devastating for hitters. Utilizing so many off-speed pitches, Jax's four-seamer became his most effective pitch with a 7.9 wFA. The question will be if the 30-year-old can build on his break-out campaign or if hitters will find a way to adjust.
The Twins gave Cole Sands an extended run in the bullpen for the first time last season, and he did not disappoint. He posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 29.1% K% across 71.1 innings. The 27-year-old pounds the strike zone with a five-pitch mix and relies on the effectiveness of his fastball to get hitters out. He toted a 4.1% BB% (97th percentile) last season, and his Fastball Run Value of 13 ranked in the 91st percentile. The 27-year-old has some work to do with his off-speed and breaking pitches (-4 and -3 value, respectively), but his ability to rack up Ks (29.1% K%) and his stinginess with free passes is encouraging. Ranking low on the totem pole of relievers in Minnesota dampers his fantasy prospects for the season, but if he gets another 70+ inning run, he will be valuable in many leagues.
Jorge Alcala was another arm who made the most of his opportunity to pitch regularly in the Majors last season. The 29-year-old was well on his way to being a factor in the Twins' bullpen when he was acquired from the Astros in 2018. Unfortunately, injuries and inconstancy marred his Twins' tenure until last season. After pitching just 19.2 innings between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Alcala tossed 58.1 innings in 2024, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He throws hard and is difficult to square up, but his lack of consistent professional experience mitigates his effectiveness. Alcala's average vFA last season was 97.9 MPH, ranking in the 97th percentile, and his 32.7% HardHit% and 86.6% AVG Exit Velo ranked in the 91st. However, he had walk issues (8.5% BB%, 41st percentile) while struggling to make batters chase out of the zone (26.0% Chase%, 19th percentile). His encouraging 2024 campaign makes me optimistic about his 2025 potential, though the question marks--health, sustainability, control, usage, etc.--are plenty.
Much like the rest of his career, Brock Stewart's 2024 campaign was derailed by injury. However, he showed promise in his limited time in 2023. In 27.1 innings, Stewart posted a ridiculous 41.5% Whiff% and 35.8% K% with a 3.4% Barrel% and 31.0% HardHit%. He finished with an absurd .65 ERA and 2.42 xERA that season. Of course, the rest of the oft-injured journeyman's career has been less than impressive (4.95 ERA in 149.0 IP). I may be romanticizing his 2023 campaign, but the 33-year-old is an intriguing reliever when the healthy.
Cardinals' New Regime at First Base
For the past six seasons, virtually every Cardinals' lineup card had Paul Goldschmidt penciled in at first base. With his departure to New York, the primarily offensive-minded position appeared open for young bats in the Cards' organization. However, veteran catcher Willson Contrares has been moved to first base and is in control of the position to start the season.
With his injury history mounting and age increasing into the twilight years, Contrares' move doesn't come as a shock. He is a capable hitter and a good athlete. However, his offensive production, while great for a catcher, will have to improve to make him fantasy-worthy once he loses his catcher position availability. For now, he makes a great fantasy option at catcher while not enduring the physical toll of being behind the plate, but depending on your league, that luxury might not last the entire season. If you expect the 32-year-old to be solely 1B eligible after the season gets going, his value will severely plummet. The league is not short on talented, proven first basemen.
Alec Burleson has been given the most run at First Base (apart from Goldy) for the Cards the past few seasons. He logged his first full season in 2024, playing mainly in the outfield. Across 595 PAs, Burley slashed .269/.314/.420 with a respectable 21 homers and 78 RBI. With a lowly K% (12.8%) and Whiff% (19.2%), the 26-year-old showed that he could get bat to the ball last season. However, with a 6.5% Barrel% and 34.2% LA-Sweet Spot%, there lacked significance in the contact. Burleson will likely DH and play in the outfield more than he mans First, but he figures to be an everyday player regardless of where he plays. With his position flexibility, he makes a decent late-round bench guy.
Powerful right-hand bat Luken Baker is also looking to make a name for himself as a Cardinal this season. However, he only plays 1B and hasn't proven himself at the major league level, although he has belted 65 homers in 192 games in Triple-A the past two seasons. The 27-year-old is a modern hitter; he bides his time at the plate, searching for a ball to put into the seats. He hit just .231 in Triple-A last season, but he took walks (24.3% BB%) and did damage with his hits, leading to a .345 OBP and .535 SLG. Baker is probably still a year away from serious fantasy consideration due to his lack of experience, but he's had a solid spring with three homers and a 1.160 OPS through 26 PAs.
Houston's Imports/Exports
Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker have left Houston after being integral to the Astros' success for the past half-decade and more. Though not like-for-like swaps, the Stros added Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to help fill the large void that Bregman and Tucker have left behind. All these players have established themselves in the majors but will have something to prove with their new teams in 2025.
While being a cornerstone of the Astros franchise for the better part of the last decade, Alex Bregman has languished a bit in Houston over the past few seasons. Since his monster 2019 campaign, in which he slashed .296/.423/.592 with a .418 wOBA and smacked 41 homers, Bregman has slashed .261/.350/.445 with a .345 wOBA and has topped out at 26 homers. Bregman's numbers post-2019 are nothing to scoff at, but he will be hard-pressed on the wrong side of 30 to find that top-tier positional value again. Despite enduring a career-worst season in 2024, Bregman still displayed excellent plate discipline (12.8% Whiff% and 13.6% K%), which is encouraging. And what's more encouraging is his move to Fenway because he is a pull-oriented, flyball hitter.
Kyle Tucker's 2024 season was ruined by injury, and he will be playing his home games in a new ballpark, but that shouldn't concern prospective fantasy owners. He has already proved himself to be a fantasy stud, and at 28 years old, he is in his prime. Tucker doesn't have much of an injury history; it was just an unfortunate foul ball off the shin that kept him from a fantastic 2024 campaign, and it's not an injury I would be worried about having ramifications going forward. Despite playing in just 78 games, Tucker hit 23 homers and stole 11 bases while toting a 180 wRC+ last season. He won't have the protection behind him that he had in Houston, but Wrigley and Daikin Park's (Houston) park factors aren't too dissimilar... don't overthink it; Tucker is an established commodity in the prime of his career.
Isaac Paredes will take over at the hot corner for Bregman in Houston. He has displayed promise over the past few seasons, but the advanced statistics from 2024 are concerning--at least as far as fantasy is concerned--Paredes' 85.0 AVG Exit Velo ranked in the 3rd percentile last season, his 27.1% HardHit% ranked in the 6th, and his 4.5% Barrel% ranked in the 15th. He still displayed terrific plate discipline (11.9% BB%, 93rd percentile), averaging a league-best 4.45 PPA, and will be an excellent table setter for the meat of the Astros lineup. This makes Paredes a better real-life hitter than a fantasy asset, and that won't change until he learns how to do more swinging the bat.
Christian Walker moves to Houston after eight seasons in Arizona. At 33, he is on the backside of his career, but the new scenery in Houston is an intriguing prospect. Overall, Chase Field in Arizona is a better hitters ballpark, but Daiken Park is better for home run-hitting right-handers. He has a good swing for the new park (42.0% Pull% and 42.2% FB%) and is coming off a 2024 season in which his batted ball statistics were quite impressive. Walker's 13.3% Barrel% ranked in the 90th percentile, and his 48.0% HardHit% ranked in the 86th. And while he was aggressive (25.6% Whiff%) and wasn't afraid to strike out (24.1% K%), Walker still walked plenty (10% BB%) and had an impressive .351 xwOBA that ranked in the top 14% of the league. Walker has been around long enough for you to know what you're getting; however, hitting behind Yordan Alverez in the middle of Houston's lineup gives his upside a boost that he hasn't had in the past.
