Roki Sasaki, SP, Dodgers
Roki Sasaki signed with the Dodgers out of Japan this offseason, and he's ready to make his mark in the major leagues. He is only 23 years old but has been a superstar in Japan for several years. His most notable achievement was throwing a perfect game in 2022. He did deal with some injuries and regression in 2024, but he posted his career worst ERA of just 2.35, which shows how dominant he has been. Likewise, his strikeout rate was 28.6% last season, but it was 39.1% in 2023. He is healthy heading into 2025 and now gets to work with the Dodgers' elite player development staff. The sky is truly the limit, as we could be talking about him as the best pitcher in baseball at this time next year. However, a more realistic approach is that the Dodgers take it easy with him, as they will likely deploy a six-man rotation to give their starters regular off days. He will also have to adjust to facing MLB hitters and throwing the official MLB ball, so it's safer to draft him in the 25-30 range of starting pitchers.
Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
Bo Bichette had a very bad 2024, batting just .225 with 29 runs, 4 home runs, and 31 RBI in 81 games. The decline came out of nowhere, with his .225 batting average representing the first time in his career that he batted below .290 in a season. Despite the decline in numbers, he actually maintained a very similar profile as previous years. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate all stayed about the same, with the only noticeable decline coming in his 4.1% barrel rate due to bad launch angles. This issue could have been caused by a calf issue that Bichette struggled with all season long and caused him to miss half the season. He is fully healthy for 2025 and should be able to return to his pre-2024 levels of production. He is going in the 11th round on average, despite being a consensus early-round pick since 2021. He is a great breakout candidate if you wait to draft your shortstop.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Red Sox
Ryan Mountcastle had another disappointing power output in 2024, hitting just 13 home runs in 124 games. This is something he has struggled with since 2022 when the Orioles made changes to Camden Yards, moving the left field wall back as much as 30 feet in some parts. He hit 33 home runs in 2021 and has averaged just 17 per season since. The good news is that the Orioles' park is getting yet another adjustment for 2025, moving the left field walls back in to a more reasonable distance. He still posted an 85th-percentile .272 xBA and a 72nd-percentile xSLG of .445, so a breakout could be coming now that his stadium won't be working against him as much. He is a great backup first base option or a great corner infielder option that you can snag late in drafts.
Michael Toglia, 1B, Rockies
Michael Toglia showed promising power potential in 2024, slashing .218/.311/.456 with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 116 games. The stolen bases were just a surprising bonus because his power is his main draw. He posted a .503 xSLG (93rd percentile), 92.1 mph average exit velocity (91st), and 17.3% barrel rate (98th) while walking at a 11.8% (92nd) clip. His main drawback is his strikeouts, with a 32.1% strikeout rate that is only sustainable for players with power as great as his. There is a risk with him for 2025, as that high of a strikeout rate could lead to some very prolonged slumps. However, if he manages to cut down his strikeouts even slightly, he could be due for a huge breakout, and he has the power potential to reach 40 homers if everything goes right. He is an elite corner infield option or a great last-resort first baseman if you wait to fill your starting spot.
Tyler Fitzgerald, SS, Giants
Tyler Fitzgerald had a huge breakout season in 2024, slashing .280/.334/.497 with 15 home runs and 17 steals. This was done in just 97 games, which equates to a 25+ homer/steal season in a full season's worth of games. His underlying metrics told a different story, as his xBA was just .227 (17th percentile). And his hard-hit rate was 31.9% (13th percentile). He definitely was overperforming to some extent, but not as much as his expected stats would lead you to believe. Thanks to his 43.2% fly ball rate (90th percentile), 49.3% pull rate (91st percentile), and 41.7% sweet spot rate (94th percentile), he is able to overperform his expected stats more than the average player. Since expected stats don't take the direction that the ball is hit into account, players that excel at pulling fly balls are always undervalued in terms of expected metrics. His 100th percentile sprint speed will also make him a lock to contribute in stolen bases. He is currently being drafted outside of the top 200, which is a very fair price to pay for the power and speed that he will likely provide. He should gain second base eligibility early into the year, making him a useful option at the weakest position.
Anthony Santander, OF, Blue Jays
Anthony Santander signed a 5-year, $92.5 million contract with the Blue Jays this offseason. He broke out in a big way, slashing .235/.308/.506 with 91 runs, 44 home runs, and 102 RBI in 155 games. This was even with the tough left field at Camden Yards that Santander would have to face whenever he batted from the right side. Now, he'll get to bat behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and should have every chance to replicate his huge season. Even if he does take a slight step back, a 30+ home run year is close to a sure thing, which not many hitters are able to provide. His underlying metrics don't jump off the page with an 89.8 mph average exit velocity, but he also strikes out a lot less than your average slugger at 19.4%. He is a solid pick in the early-to-mid rounds and should be drafted close to the 20th outfielder off the board.
Tyler O'Neill, OF, Orioles
Tyler O'Neill signed a three-year, $49.5 million contract with the Orioles this offseason. He had a great season in his debut for the Red Sox in 2024, slashing .241/.336/.511 with 74 runs, 31 home runs, 61 RBI, and 4 stolen bases in 113 games. Hitting 30 homers in that many games was an impressive feat, and all of his underlying metrics back up his massive power. He posted a .480 xSLG (90th percentile), 17.3% barrel rate (98th), and 48.8% hard-hit rate (90th). He also had an 11.2% walk rate that ranked in the 87th percentile. He gets a park downgrade going to Camden Yards, but luckily, they are moving the fences in, so it's not as major of a change as you might expect. He hits the ball a long way when he gets a hold of one anyway, so he should have no problem leaving the yard on a regular basis. His main concern is his health, as he has only played over 100 games twice in his career. Luckily, he's being drafted outside of the top 40 outfielders on average, which is a very fair price to pay for someone with this much power potential.
Byron Buxton, OF, Twins
Byron Buxton slashed .279/.335/.524 with 62 runs, 18 home runs, 56 RBI, and 7 stolen bases in 102 games in 2024. This was the first time he played more than 100 games since 2017, and he still missed 60 games of the year. He is still a near-elite bat when healthy, as evidenced by his .502 xSLG and 13.2% barrel rate, but you can't count on him to stay on the field. He has a current ADP outside of the top 200, so he's a fine pick if you're looking for that excellent per-game production. Just make sure you have a backup plan for when he misses time again.
Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox
Kristian Campbell was one of the biggest breakout prospects of 2024, slashing .330/.439/.558 with 20 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 115 games. He has about everything you'd want to see in a prospect, with plus power, speed, and plate discipline. He walked at a rate of 14.3%, which would play nicely at the major league level. The fact that he plays second base is also a huge boost to his fantasy value, as that is by far and away the weakest position in terms of top-end talent. He would instantly become one of the highest-upside second basemen once he claims a starting job, which he has the chance to do this spring. Even though the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman to reportedly play second, he could always shift back to third while Rafael Devers moves to DH. Campbell is worth taking a shot on late in drafts, and his ADP will skyrocket if he looks like he's going to win a spot on the opening day roster.
Gabriel Moreno, C, Diamondbacks
Gabriel Moreno slashed .266/.353/.380 with 39 runs, 5 home runs, and 45 RBI in 97 games in 2024. He missed time with multiple injuries and had a pretty underwhelming first half. However, after returning from the injured list late in the season, he slashed .325/.418/.429 in his final 36 games. He has elite plate discipline, as he showed off an 11.7% walk rate (92nd percentile), 14.8% strikeout rate (91st), and 21.6% chase rate (91st). He is one of the best catchers in the game for batting average, which gives him a very solid floor for fantasy. He hits a lot of ground balls, but if he increases his average launch angle, he could be in for a huge breakout season. His high-batting average gives him the ceiling of a Yainer Diaz type of player, which is worth taking a shot on late. He is a great starting catcher option if you want to wait until one of the last rounds of your draft, or he is an elite second catcher option in leagues where you need to start two.
Nick Pivetta, SP, Padres
Nick Pivetta signed a four-year, $55 million contract with the Padres this offseason. He was impressive in his spring debut a couple of days ago, pitching 2.2 scoreless innings and striking out four batters. He posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while striking out 172 batters in 145.2 innings in 2024 for the Red Sox. His xERA was a much better 3.51, and his 28.9% strikeout rate ranked in the 88th percentile. He does tend to give up a lot of hard contact, as evidenced by his 10.1% barrel rate (10th percentile), but his move to San Diego will put him in a better park to deal with that. He is a great sleeper pitcher to target in drafts after the first 50 starting pitchers are off the board, especially if you need strikeouts.
Gavin Williams, SP, Guardians
Gavin Williams dealt with an elbow injury at the beginning of 2024, delaying his season debut until July. Once returning, he posted a 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 76 innings while striking out 79. However, there's reason for optimism heading into 2025. He is still only 25 years old and is entering this season completely healthy. He has great secondary pitches, with both his curveball and cutter inducing whiffs more than 30% of the time, and he has a 96.6 average fastball velocity that ranks in the 88th percentile. He looked great in his recent start in the spring, striking out six over 2.1 innings. The Guardians also aren't afraid to let their pitchers pitch deep into games, so Williams could be an interesting breakout candidate for the upcoming season. You should look to draft him after the top 50 SP are off the board.
Carlos Estevez, RP, Royals
Carlos Estevez signed a two-year, $20.2 million contract with the Royals this offseason. He saved 26 games in 2024 between the Angels and Phillies, and that contract certainly makes it look like the Royals will trust him to be their closer, too. He posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 50 strikeouts last season, although his 10.1% barrel rate and 90.3 mph average exit velocity show he could be due for regression. If he does start to struggle, Erceg could be quick to take over the job, so he is not the safest closer out there. Still, he should probably be drafted as about the 20th closer off the board as a locked-in saves source for a good team.
Tanner Scott, RP, Dodgers
Tanner Scott signed a four-year, $72 million contract with the Dodgers this offseason. He was one of the game's most elite relievers in 2024, posting a 1.74 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 84 strikeouts in 72 innings. He saved 22 games and blew two. Now in LA, he should get the bulk of the save chances for the best team in baseball. They also signed Kirby Yates, who figures to work in here and there, but Dave Roberts recently said that Scott will be the primary option to close. The questionable job security keeps him from being an elite closer for fantasy, but he should still be drafted within the top 15 at the position.
Caleb Faucher, RP, Marlins
Calvin Faucher was seeing the majority of the Marlins' save chances by the end of 2024, and there's a good chance he will continue that role into 2025. He pitched 52.2 innings last season while putting up a 3.19 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts. He can get wild at times, with a walk rate that ranked in the 14th percentile, but his ability to miss bats makes up for it. In the second half of the season, he posted an elite 31.8% strikeout rate. He may not look dominant enough to be a typical closer, but his main competition is Jesus Tinoco and Anthony Bender. Miami also doesn't figure to win a lot of games, but any player who's locked in for save chances is worth drafting in leagues where saves are scarce. With an ADP outside of the top 350, it's easy to take a shot on him.
