Alejandro Kirk (C-TOR) is in line to see more time behind the dish than ever before since Danny Jansen is no longer in town. The 26 year-old has flashed some upside in the past, most notably registering a .285 average, with 4 homers, 63 RBI, and 59 runs scored across a career-high 541 PA in 2022, with a well above-average 129 wRC+, but he has underwhelmed ever since. In just 386 PA last year, Kirk recorded a .253 average to go with 5 dingers, 54 RBI, and 23 runs scored, with a subpar wRC+ of 94. The backstop continued to command the plate well with a 13% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate while recording an above-average 86.5% contact rate. His Statcast profile - while not as good as that which he assembled in 2022 - was better than it was in 2023 with a 40.5% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 89.5 mph. An average launch angle of 10.8 was his highest since 2021, and his 22% liner rate was a career high while his 33% flyball rate was also his highest since 2021. The power output is limited, but the contact ability should lead to at least a decent average. With increased volume this season, a .265 average to go with 10+ homers isn't an unreasonable expectation but there's the potential for more here. His ADP is currently 299 overall and 21 at his position, so he's a lottery ticket if one misses out on the top 12(ish) options at backstop.
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B-KC) missed some time while on the IL last season but still put together a career-best campaign that included a .262 average, 19 homers, 97 RBI, and 64 runs scored across 554 PA, with an above-average wRC+ of 108. While that's far from an impressive stat line, he continued to show a refined batting eye and approach as he registered a 13% strikeout rate against a 7% walk rate while making lots of loud contact. Pasquantino's Statcast profile shows a 46% hard-hit rate, 7% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 91 mph while a launch angle of 14.6 bodes well for power output; his liner rate was meh at 17.5%, but the flyball rate was in a good place at 43%. A slugger who makes a lot of contact (6% swinging-strike rate and 87.5% contact rate), Pasquantino appears to be primed for a career year in 2025 if he can stay healthy as a .270 average to go with 25 bombs is in the cards. He should be a nice value in fantasy drafts given his ADP of 107 overall and being the 12th 1B off the board. Given his plus contact ability and power, Pasquantino could finish the season a top-10 1B.
Colt Keith (2B-DET) is reportedly moving to 1B and, with Kerry Carpenter (DH-DET) entrenched as the DH, at least against RHP, Spencer Torkelson (1B-DET) seemingly has limited upside. After seemingly figuring things out during the second half of the 2023 campaign, Torkelson may now only face LHP. He spent significant time in the minors last season after a dreadfully slow start and returned later in the campaign, with a total batting line of a .219 average with just 10 homers, 37 RBI, and 45 runs scored across 381 PA, with a wRC+ of 92 attesting to his below-average production. Torkelson's contact rate was below-average at 76% while he fanned a lot (27.5%) and assembled a career-worst Statcast profile (39.5% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, and 89 mph average exit velo). The 2020 first overall pick is only entering his age-25 season and could conceivably turn his career around, but he has no fantasy value on the short side of a platoon. His platoon partner, though, Kerry Carpenter, enjoyed a productive age-26 season when healthy, posting a .284 average with 18 bombs, 57 RBI, and 37 runs scored over 296 PA, with a robust 160 wRC+. He fanned a good bit (25.5%) and his contact rate was lower than Torkelson's at 72%, but Carpenter blistered the baseball when he got the bat on it with a Statcast profile that included a 45% hard-hit rate, 17% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 90.5 mph. Expect a .260ish average with a homer total in the low 20s, although reports indicate that he could see more action against LHP this season. The most interesting player of this bunch might be Colt Keith, who showed some promise as a 22 year-old rookie last season. He started the season slowly but turned a corner in July, going on to hit .260 with 13 dingers, 61 RBI, 54 runs scored, and 7 steals across 556 PA. A 97 wRC+ indicates that he wasn't especially productive, but Keith's strikeout rate was acceptable at 20% while he registered a 78.5% contact rate. His Statcast profile reflects that he took some time to acclimate to the majors with a 35% hard-hit rate, 5.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 88 mph. With the strongest hit tool of the three and plus raw power that he's not really tapped into yet, it will be interesting to see if Keith can take a significant step forward this season, although losing 2B eligibility after this season would be a blow to his fantasy value. For 2025, expect an average about .260 with 15-18 homers as a floor and he may deliver more.
Matt McLain (2B/SS-CIN) may be limited to 2B during the upcoming season if things go how new Reds manager Terry Francona wants. McLain missed the entire 2024 campaign because of a shoulder injury and a rib cage stress reaction. In his rookie campaign as a 23 year-old in 2024, he showed promise as he hit .290 with 16 dingers, 50 RBI, 64 runs scored, and 14 stolen bases across 403 PA. The average is likely to regress significantly, though, as his BABIP was .385 and he fanned at a 28.5% rate in his first run in the majors. Although his swinging-strike rate wasn't ridiculous at 10.5%, McLain's contact rate was subpar at 74.5% as he was fairly passive at the dish (42% swing rate). The decent pop, though, does seem legit as his Statcast profile included a 42% hard-hit rate, 11% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 89.5 mph while his launch angle was 13.8; the result was a robust 24% liner rate and 37% flyball rate. A 20-20 campaign with about a .250 or so average is very possible over a full season in 2025. Just keep an eye on the news out of spring training to make sure he secures an everyday role before investing on draft day; if so, his ADP of 11 at SS and 113 overall is a deal. The early returns in spring training are encouraging as he went 3-3 with a homer, 2 2B, and 2 RBI on Wednesday.
Corey Seager (SS-TEX) is expected to be a full go for Opening Day (hip/sports hernia) after reporting to spring training with no restrictions. He missed the end of his age-30 season, and durability is always a concern as Seager has registered more than 600 PA in a campaign only three times since he reached the majors back in 2015. But, as usual, he was very productive when healthy in 2024 as he posted a .278 average to go with 30 homers, 74 RBI, and 68 runs scored across 533 PA, with a well above-average wRC+ of 140. Seager's contact rate was actually up at 78.5% (76.5% career) while his Statcast profile was as robust as usual, if not a little more so, with a 49.5% hard-hit rate (46% career), 15% barrel rate (10.5% career), and average exit velocity of 92 mph (91 career). He's now on the wrong side of 30, but Seager's talent has never been in question and his skillset does not depend on youth. Expect an average of .280 or better to go with 30+ homers so long as he can register at least 500 PA. His ADP of 40 overall (7 at SS) is a great value in terms of pure talent, but volume is always a questions mark with Seager.
Jake Burger (1B/3B-TEX) joined the Rangers in an offseason trade that should benefit both parties. In his age-28 season with the Marlins, Burger hit .250 (for the second straight year) while hitting 29 homers, driving in 76 runs, and scoring 68 runs across 579 PA, with a wRC+ of 106. He doesn't walk much (5.5%) and fans a good bit (26%) as his swinging-strike rate was 15% (down from 17% in 2023). His contact rate wasn't great at 71.5%, but that was better than the 68.5% he recorded in 2023. Unsurprisingly, Burger excels in quality of contact as his Statcast profile included a 47% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 91.5 mph while his launch angle of 13 generated a combined 56% liner-flyball rate. Look for another .240-.250 season with 30 or so dingers in his first season with Texas as he's expected to serve as the club's primary 1B with Nate Lowe now with the Nationals. With an ADP at 14 at his position and 128, there's value to be had here.
Michael Harris II (OF-ATL) reported that he felt healthy heading into spring training and felt that he had an ideal offseason. This comes after he was likely slowed on basepaths late in the 2024 season by fear of reaggravating hamstring injury that limited him to 110 games. Although Harris's wRC+ came in at a career-low 99, he was still an across-the-board fantasy contributor with a .264 average, 16 homers, 48 RBI, 58 runs scored, and 10 stolen bases. The club believes in him enough that he saw time at leadoff in the absence of Ronald Acuna, Jr. While he doesn't walk much (5%), Harris kept the strikeout rate to an acceptable 20% clip. But a 13% swinging-strike rate and 39.5% chase rate are concerning and his 76.5% contact rate isn't anything to write home about. The good news is that his Statcast profile remained robust with a 47% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90.5 mph, although a launch angle of 7.5 resulted in a 49.5% groundball rate, leaving just 20.5% liners and 30% flyballs. That will limit his power output, but if his speed is back it's fine for the average. With good health, Harris is likely to hit for .275 or so while going 20-20. But that's a big if, and Harris is currently being drafted as the 16th OF off the board in drafts; a lot of that is based on projection.
Starling Marte (OF-NYM) and Jesse Winker (OF-NYM) will reportedly platoon at DH for the Mets this season. This means that both will likely offer minimal fantasy value during the coming campaign. Marte is coming off a second straight campaign in which he registered fewer than 400 PA, and he hasn't logged more than 500 since 2019. In his age-35 season, he mustered a .269 average to go with homers, 40 RBI, 46 runs scored, and 16 steals with a slightly above-average wRC+ of 104. His 22% strikeout rate was his highest since 2014 as his contact rate dipped below 75% for the first time since that same year. On the other hand, his Statcast profile was the best of his career (well, since Statcast started in 2015) as he registered a 43% hard-hit rate, 7% barrel rate and average exit velo of 90 mph; unfortunately a career-low 4.3 launch angle limited his power output as he had a grounder rate of 50.5% to go with a 27% liner rate and 23% flyball rate. Expect diminished production in 2024 as he'll be the weak side of a platoon and his speed is likely to slip as he's now in the back half of his 30s. He's also been dealing with recurring knee soreness since late last season, so keep an eye on that. The 31 year-old Jesse Winker will man the strong side of the platoon as he's coming off something of a rebound campaign in which he logged a .253 average, 14 dingers, 58 runs RBI, 63 runs scored, and a career-high 14 steals in 508 PA with the Nationals and Mets. A 118 wRC+ was his best since 2021, but that was only the second time he cracked 500 PA in a season since he reached the majors in 2017. His 21% strikeout rate and 12.5% walk rate were both par for the course as was Winker's 81.5% contact rate. While not quite at the level of 2020-2021 when he was with the Reds, his Statcast profile improved from 2022-2023 as it included a 37% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 88.5 mph. Based on age, volume, power, and his newfound speed (most likely thanks to the new bases and rules), Winker is the more interesting of the two for deeper fantasy leagues.
Shane McClanahan (SP-TB) will be the Rays Opening Day starter against the Rockies on March 28. While the 27 year-old southpaw has indicated that he won't have any sort of restrictions during spring training, the club is expected to cap his workload at around 150 innings this season. McClanahan is returning from his second Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in August 2023. Before suffering the injury, he was in the midst of a good but underwhelming season, posting a 3.29 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.84 xFIP across 115 IP; all but the ERA were his worst figures as a major leaguer. To be sure, the developing elbow issue affected his effectiveness, but it's worth noting that his Statcast profile (42.5% hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 89.5 mph) was bad compared to that from his stellar 2022 season (32.5% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 87.5 mph). The good news is that even though he surrendered more free passes and loud contact (an awful combination), McClanahan continued to miss more bats than his K/9 suggests, as his swinging-strike rate remained elite at 15.5%. He's something of a lottery ticket as he comes off his second TJS, but McClanahan has ace upside as a low-3 ERA, 10 K/9 guy. His current ADP of 133 overall and 41 at SP offer nice upside for a reasonable price.
Jesus Luzardo (SP-PHI) was traded to the Phillies this past offseason after a disappointing 2024 season with the Marlins. After seemingly breaking through in 2022-2023, the southpaw pitched only 66.2 IP in his age-26 season, posting a 5.00 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3 BB/9, and 4.23 xFIP. His average fastball velocity was down a tick and a half to 95.5 mph, but he still managed a 13.5% swinging-strike rate that was on par with seasons past. Opposing hitters did, however, do a better job of making contact on pitches inside the zone (84.5% z-contact%) compared to previous campaigns while Luzardo's called strike rate was down to 15% (from 17% in 2022 and 15.5% in 2023). They also hit the ball harder, as his Statcast profile included a 41% hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 90.5 mph that were all higher than what they registered against him in 2022-2023. Back and flexor issues limited him to just 12 starts last season and seemingly hampered his performance before he went on the IL, but reports indicate that he's back to full health for spring training. Fantasy owners should therefore expect a K/9 north of 9 - he's surpassed 10 twice in the past - to go with an ERA in the mid-high 3s. There's #2-3 SP potential here as Luzardo is in his prime and was sharp in 2022-2023. Luzardo's current ADP is sitting at about 79 at SP and 277 overall; he could be a nice value that late. He was electric in his spring training debut on Friday, firing 2 scoreless IP against the Red Sox in which he fanned 2 and didn't allow a baserunner; he generated 6 swinging strikes as he fired 14 of his 19 offerings for strikes while his sinker touched 98 mph.
Nick Lodolo (SP-CIN) reported to camp without having to navigate any health issues, which was not the case in 2024 as he was coming back from a fractured tibia. Injuries cut into his 2024 season, which is a recurring theme for the 27 year-old southpaw. But Lodolo was more effective than his 4.76 ERA suggests when he was able to take the mound as he compiled a 9.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 3.95 xFIP across 115.1 IP. His 3.78 SIERA and 3.72 xERA also suggest that he ran into some poor luck, namely a 68% strand rate. Lodolo's contact rate (74%) and swinging-strike rate (12%) were both solid while his Statcast profile wasn't bad at all with a 37.5% hard-hit rate, 8% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 89 mph. How much he'll pitch is the big question heading into the 2025 campaign, but his track record suggests that an ERA south of 4 to go with a K/9 pushing 10 is a reasonable expectation. With a current ADP of 72 at his position and 248 overall, there's relatively little risk here.
Kumar Rocker (SP-TEX) is not expected to make the Rangers' Opening Day rotation if all five starters in front of him are healthy heading into the season. It's a rotation that includes Jacob deGrom and others who are liable to miss some time. The 25 year-old righty returned from Tommy John surgery in a big way last season, posting a 1.96 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, and 2.04 xFIP across 36.2 IP in the minors before getting the call to the majors. In his brief debut, he registered a 3.86 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 3.86 xFIP over 11.2 IP. Although his control faltered in the majors, Rocker's average fastball velocity came in north of 96 mph while he missed some bats (13.5% swinging-strike rate). It's tough to glean too much from less than 50 total IP, but suffice to say that Rocker should be on fantasy owners' radars. The Vanderbilt product distinguished himself in his collegiate career and was the #3 overall pick in 2022, so the pedigree is there. He has good stuff and showed good control in the minors last season, so all he needs is an opportunity. Make sure you're ready to capitalize in fantasy.
