Matt Shaw
Shaw made his big league debut with the Cubs a couple days ago, and boy was it on a big stage. The Cubs rookie played third during their series in Japan. Shaw went 1-9 during that series, but that isn't really notable. What is notable is that Shaw is now creeping up draft boards, and with multi-positional eligibility between 2B, 3B, and SS, there is a ton of intrigue. He stole 31 bags and hit 21 homers in 121 MiLB games last year. He struck out at only 18.2% in that time, and 5.3% in Spring Training. He also batted fifth for the Cubs in Japan, and the Cubs definitely have a solid top of the lineup that could give him sneaky RBI opportunities. If he is going to steal bases, hit homers, have multi-positional eligibility, and bat in the middle of the lineup, this could be a super valuable fantasy player, and at 229 ADP, I'm absolutely more than comfortable reaching for him a bit.
Cam Smith
As of the time of this writing, Smith has yet to officially break camp, but darn is he making a great case. The 2024 First Round pick only struck out at 17.9% in 134 MiLB PA's last year, and hit 7 homers and stole two bags in that span. Smith has a very minor ability to swipe bags so I wouldn't count on it, but the sell here is the pure hitter. He's striking out at 22.2% in Spring Training, but walking at 13.9% with four homers in only 36 PA's. My issue with Smith is that, even though he is a pure hitter, the Astros lineup is closer to average than it is good with the loss of Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. The lack of stolen bases might mean that even if Smith hits, you're looking at a two-category player, and the probability he hits for average is a bit lower just given age. You can draft him with your last pick, but in early 2025, he doesn't have the upside you think he has. Dynasty? Different story.
Ryan Weathers
Weathers was giving the barren Marlins roster some hope with increased velocity and stuff during Spring Training. Weathers will unfortunately now hit the IL due to forearm inflammation. I'm not a doctor but forearm strains for pitchers who have recently seen their velocity bump is a fairly large red flag. Supposedly, the UCL is fine, but given that Weathers will suffer in the Win category due to playing for what might be the worst team in baseball, plus his strike throwing issues (18.6% BB rate in spring training), he no longer has the upside he did one week ago.
Mike Trout
Trout was easily the best player in baseball during the 2010's but this is a new decade. He will now no longer start in CF for the Angels in an attempt to lessen his workload and keep him healthy. He has played over 100 games once in the last four years, so the injury risk is real. My main issue with Trout has nothing to do with the talent, but rather his team. To pay off his 91 ADP, we'll need to see something in the way of stolen bags or R/RBI. He hasn't stolen more than 10 bags since 2019, and with the Angels making a deliberate effort to prevent injury, I don't see him stealing many bags in 2025. In terms of RBI/R, the outlook is desolate. People were making jokes in early 2024 that the Angels lineup was so bad that Trout had more homeruns than RBI. And that was actually almost true. He had 10 homers and 14 RBI. I fully believe that if Trout plays a full season he'll hit at least 35 homers. The issue is that with Zach Neto hurt and the rest of the lineup having massive question marks, he could end up being a very frustrating player to roster. Think twice.
Jacob Wilson
The son of former big leaguer Jack Wilson and 2023 First Round pick, Wilson is one of the more unique players out there. He took 13 PA's in the bigs last year and struck out at 9.7% and walked at 7.8%. He is below 10% in both marks across 47 Spring Training PAs. If you take his big league sample and ST sample, you can probably project out 12-16 homers, but zero stolen bases. With that low of a walk rate and that low of homer total, he'll need to crush the AVG/R department to remain relevant, which would imply some excellent quality of contact, which hasn't exactly been shown thus far. If he bats in front of Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers, I'll feel better about the runs. In OBP and points leagues, the lack of walks might be an issue.
Hayden Birdsong
Birdsong has yet to crack the rotation, and is currently fighting for the fifth spot, but personally I think he is a slam dunk for the role. He struck out 27.9% in 72 big league innings last year. The 13.7 BB% and 50% Hard Hit rate were some of the worst rates in the bigs, but this spring he's allowed zero homers and zero walks in 43 batters faced. It's a small sample size, but to be perfect in those two departments at the same time is fairly difficult regardless of the sample. It's fairly difficult in one start alone. At 411 ADP, I'm taking him with one of my final picks nearly every time.
Pablo Lopez
Lopez has made 32 starts and thrown at least 180 innings three years running. The volume and reliability has a value in and of itself, but I'm worried about Lopez's ability. His Whiff rate is strong (27%) as is his groundball rate (44%), but that being said they've taken steps back. That groundball rate is a career low, and his 56% Flyball rate was a career high. His Pull Air rate is 19.5%, good for a career high and well above big league average. The wiff rate is the lowest in the last three years. His FIP hasn't been below 3.30 once in the last three years, and his xERA has been below 3.50 only once in the last four years. Just understand that you are drafting only a solid talent, but leaning into the volume play.
Marcus Semien
A once reliable multi-category contributor at a thin position, Semien has certainly declined in a disappointing way. That being said, Semien is easily the most reliable player in the last decade. He has appeared in 155 games or more in 8 of the last 10 seasons, which is really 9 because of 2020, where he started 53 of 60 games. While I applaud the durability, the reality is that the quality of contact wasn't great this year. His .328 xwOBACON was his lowest mark since 2019, which was the only season he posted a lower rate. His 17.0 LA third lowest of his career, and his 39.6% ground ball rate was also his highest since 2019. Luckily Semien still has a sky high Pull Air % (24.2%) which makes him a lock to hit 20 homers. It seems like Semien was much more aggressive in 2024. His zone swing rate of 75.9% was a career high by a whopping 3%, and his 25.2% Chase was nearly a career high. If he can tone it back and make better decisions, maybe he can get back to that marginally better batted ball data, which would justify his 64 ADP more for me.
Raisel Iglesias
The ultra-reliable Iglesias posted a strong season in 2024, and he is poised to do so again in 2025. The Braves offense should be plenty good, especially when Acuna gets back, so there should be ample opportunity to rack up saves. The underlying metrics for Iglesias are still super strong, and you can confidently draft him wherever you'd like - depending on your format. Iglesias is a whiff machine (31.5%) and even gets chase (37.1%). The quality of contact against him is strong in his favor (.291 xwOBACON against), which I'm sure is partially driven by his robust 45.1% groundball rate. Draft with confidence.
Jordan Westburg
Westburg is the near-star in the making nobody is talking about. He only took 447 PAs last year, so round all of those counting numbers up. I'd even round up further if you anticipate the various young players they have in Baltimore to step up. Westburg posted a strong .281 xBA and .491 xSLG. He almost doubled his barrel rate (6.5% to 11.8%). Westburg was actually much more aggressive in 2024. Both his K% and BB% were cut by about 3%, indicating increased swing rates. He actually whiffed slightly more. We would obviously expect players who whiff and chase more to strikeout more, but Westburg goes against the grain. His in zone contact also went down. The only explanation is that Westburg was able to avoid punchouts with a strong two-strike approach. It's a muddy breakdown, admittedly. We'll call it neutral, and stick to the notion that his quality of contact got better.
Luis Robert
After a super strong 2023 that saw Robert blast 38 bombs and steal 20 bags with a .264/.315/.542 slash line, he disappointed mightily in 2024, slashing just .224/.278/.379. The quality of contact was horrible. His .210 xBA and .277 xwOBA were near the bottom of the league. Much of that isn't *true* quality of contact, since the 33.2 K% contributes to that greatly. The .385 xwOBACON is somewhat about average, but if you're going to whiff and chase at over 35%, the xwOBACON needs to be elite. While I want to bet on a bounce back, the shape of his batted ball data has shifty pretty intensely. His Pull rate plummeted nearly 11%, and his flyball rate dipped about 4%. His 83.5% meatball swing rate was a career low by a large margin, and contributed to his career low in zone swing rate. Someone gave him the advice "take more pitches and use the middle of the field" and it went horrible. Please do the opposite Luis.
Brice Turang
Did you take too many power hitters early in the draft? Don't worry, you can find Turang at his 115 ADP. The speedster stole a whopping 50 bags last season, which is well more than enough to look past the abysmal 2.4% barrel rate. Turang has no power of any kind. His 29.7 Hard-Hit % and 87 EV are products of 2nd Percentile bat speed. His Pull Air % is just 7.6%, so lucking into homers isn't really on the table. Luckily, Turang doesn't punch out (17%) and walks an average amount (8.1%), so there is something to talk about in points leagues. Turang posted a 85th Percentile squared up rate but only a 29th Percentile LA Sweet Spot rate. It means he got unusually lucky at getting to his best EVs at a high rate while in optimal LA ranges. His 261 xBA would agree. I'm unsure if that's an innate skill or not. Either way, I'm fairly neutral on improved offense, leaning he won't get much better. You're buying the stolen bases with average that won't kill you.
Carlos Rodon
It's been an up and down career for Rodon, but in 2024, he was a fairly mediocre version of himself. The punchouts were there (26.5%), but the quality of contact was a major concern. Rodon's 8th Percentile groundball rate simply doesn't play in Yankee Stadium. He has an 18.1 LA against, which was actually his lowest since 2019, but still well above big league average. The flyball thing has been an issue for him for some time, but it simply doesn't pair well with me when you consider his Hard Hit rate against hasn't been below league average in the last three years. At 137 ADP, it's just really tough for me to take an arm that has no upside for better.
Tyler Stephenson
Stephenson was one of my favorite late round catchers, but it looks like an oblique strain is going to land him on the IL to start the season. The catcher position is so thin that I would be very interested in buying given the injury discount. Stephenson's batted ball data was all around mediocre, but for a catcher, that actually plays up. His 9.1% Barrel rate is actually above big league average, and his LA Sweet-Spot, xBA, xwOBA, and xwOBACON are all almost identical to league average. Stephenson actually does well in the discipline department, as his 22.7/9.3 K/BB ratio makes him a great value in points leagues. If you want to draft him as a starter and take someone else late to fill in during his injury, I'm giving you the green light.
Yu Darvish
Darvish is reportedly dealing with elbow inflammation, and will have to make a trip to the IL. The former Cy Young runner up posted just a 3.31 ERA in 81.2 innings last year, but the underlying figures say he was probably a bit worse (3.62 xERA, 4.08 FIP). Darvish only punched out 23.6% of batters last year, a league average rate, but easily the lowest of his career. His 39.9 Hard Hit % was also a career high. There are a variety of other batted ball figures that suggest the falloff hasn't been terrible, but coming into the season aged 37 with an injury has me worried.
