Alexis Diaz, CIN
Diaz has struggled mightily this spring, allowing 5 ER's in 2.1 IP with 5 BB's, 1 HBP and just 1 K across his 3 appearances. It was almost a given heading into spring training that Diaz would be the Reds closer in 2025, but that is very much in question right now, and there's even a possibility that he opens the season in the minors. Diaz already showed significant decline last season, when he finished with an 8.79 K/9 compared to 11.50 K/9 in 2023, and his xFIP was a concerning 5.06. He was still steady enough to maintain the closer's job, converting 28 of 32 save opportunities and posting a 3.99 ERA. Even if the Reds do decide to remove Diaz from the closer role to start the season, there's a good chance he could get another opportunity down the road if he figures things out. But right now, he is not a safe bet for saves to open the season.
So who could the Reds turn to if they feel they can't trust Diaz at the moment? They have several options but none that are clearcut.
Sam Moll, CIN
Moll has just one career save under his belt, but he has been a solid setup man over the past three years, racking up 35 holds along with a 3.08 ERA and 9.54 K/9 across 143.1 IP during that time. His walk rates have been high, but his 3.35 BB/9 last year was not as bad as previous seasons. Moll has had a pretty rough spring himself, allowing 10 ER's in 5.2 IP with a 5:4 K:BB, but he has proven to be a reliable bullpen arm over the past few years.
Tony Santillan, CIN
Santillan may have the most upside of anyone in the Cincinnati bullpen, as he recorded an incredible 13.80 K/9 across 30 IP last season while lowering his walk rate to a respectable 2.70 BB/9, en route to a sparkling 2.51 xFIP. He is susceptible to the long ball due to a low groundball rate, but with such an elite strikeout rate, it may not matter. He doesn't have an extensive big-league track record with less than 100 IP under his belt, but that doesn't mean the Reds shouldn't give him a shot in high leverage situations.
Scott Barlow, CIN
Outside of Diaz, Barlow has the most closing experience of the Cincinnati relievers, having saved 53 games in a 3 year span from 2021-2023. He gets his strikeouts (career 10.72 K/9), although he has struggled with walks the past couple of seasons. He has finished each of the past two seasons with an ERA above 4.00, so the Reds may not be comfortable with him in a closing role. On the other hand, if experience is what the team cares about, then Barlow could be their best option.
Emilio Pagan, CIN
Pagan enjoyed a successful season with the Reds in 2024, posting a 44:11 K:BB across 38 IP while recording a 3.63 XFIP. His 4.50 ERA from a year ago is a bit misleading as it is partially the fault of a .351 BABIP. Pagan has been a trustworthy setup man for most of his career, but he did collect 20 saves with the Rays back in 2019 and the Reds shouldn't have a problem considering him a closing option this season if need be.
Alex Verdugo, ATL
Verdugo signed a one-year contact with the Braves on Thursday, and will begin the season at AAA. Once the Braves deem that he is ready for MLB action, he may have to battle Jarred Kelenic for playing time in the outfield, and once Ronald Acuna Jr. returns from his injury, that playing time may be even harder to find. Verdugo has always been an excellent contact hitter, and has typically hit for a strong average, until last year when he hit .233 for the Yankees. He's likely to bounce back in that department, but he has never developed significant power at the big league level, maxing out at 13 HR's in three different seasons. Verdugo is a questionable fantasy asset even with a full time role, and for sure when that role is far from guaranteed.
Bowden Francis, TOR
Francis had a solid outing against the Rays on Thursday, allowing 1 ER in 5.1 IP with 4 K's and 2 BB's, which is a nice bounceback after giving up 12 ER's in 10 IP across his first 4 spring appearances. Francis had a sensational 2nd half for the Blue Jays last season, posting a 1.80 ERA across 65 IP, and finished the season with an ERA of 3.30. He barely walked anybody in the 2nd half with a 1.11 BB/9. Francis did not strikeout a ton of batters though, and he benefited from some good fortune with a .211 BABIP last season. His 4.17 xFIP was nearly a run higher than his ERA, so we should expect some regression here.
Pavin Smith, ARI
Smith collected 3 hits and 4 RBI against the A's on Thursday and is up to a .916 OPS this spring. Smith consistently has decent contact rates and takes a good share of walks, which helped him reach a .348 OBP last season. However he doesn't hit for much power or steal bases, which limits his fantasy appeal even if he were to have an everyday role with the Diamondbacks. As it is, Smith hasn't even appeared in 80 games in one season since 2021.
Kodei Senga, NYM
Senga struck out 6 in 3,2 IP against the Nationals on Thursday, allowing 1 unearned run, and not allowing a hit. Senga had an impressive rookie season in 2023 when he finished with a 2.98 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, and 10.93 K/9. He missed nearly all of last season due to injury, which his dropped him in fantasy drafts until the middle rounds. There's obviously injury risk here, but if he stays mostly healthy, he can be an excellent value where he's being drafted.
Chris Paddack, MIN
Paddack struck out 7 and allowed just 1 ER in 4.2 IP against the Red Sox on Thursday. It was announced earlier this week that Paddack would be part of the Twins' rotation and Wednesday's results wouldn't change that decision. Paddack has a combined 4.94 ERA since 2021, although his 3.85 xFIP during that span shows that he's been unlucky. Still, he's not a recommended option in fantasy right now,
Tomoyuki Sugano, BAL
Sugano was roughed up by the Yankees on Thursday, allowing 5 ER's in 4.2 IP, the first ER's he's allowed this spring. He has a solid 15:5 K:BB across 15.1 spring IP, but he doesn't have a track record of a lot of K's in Japan, which makes him a weak fantasy option.
Aroldis Chapman, BOS
Chapman has been spectacular this spring with 13 K's in 6.1 IP and appears to be the frontrunner to be the Red Sox closer over Liam Hendricks. Chapman's had some ups and downs in recent years, but he still posted an impressive 14.30 K/9 and 3.14 xFIP for the Pirates in 2024 and it appears he still has something left in the tank at age 37. He has had extremely high walk rates the past few seasons, so he's unlikely to help in the WHIP category, but he should still be a strong fantasy asset if he is named as Boston's closer.
David Hamilton, BOS
Hamilton went 2-3 with 3 SB's against the Twins on Thursday and appears to be the frontrunner for the Red Sox starting 2nd base job. With 33 SB's in 98 games last season, Hamilton has the ability to be a strong fantasy contributor even if the rest of his offensive game leaves what to be desired.
Sean Newcomb, BOS
Newcomb allowed just 1 unearned in 4.2 IP against the Twins on Thursday and appears to be a strong candidate to fill a spot in the Red Sox rotation with Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford set to open the season on the IL. Newcomb last pitched regularly as an MLB starter in 2018 with the Braves, and while he was solid then, he has a lot to prove that he can be successful in that role again. He has never finished a season, as a SP or RP, with an xFIP below 4.33.
