Preseason Prep - March 19, 2025

Drake Baldwin (C-ATL) appears likely to open the 2025 campaign as Atlanta's starting backstop. That is interesting news from a fantasy standpoint given Baldwin's status as the organization's top prospect. As a 23 year-old last season, he batted .276 with 16 dingers, 88 RBI, and 58 runs scored across 551 total PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. He showed strong command of the plate with a 13% walk rate against a 17% strikeout rate while registering an 8.5% swinging-strike rate and 23.5% chase rate. Baldwin showed off his plus hit tool with an 81.5% contact rate while his Statcast profile showed lots of loud contact with a 53% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 93 mph in 334 Triple-A PA. His batted ball profile shows a healthy 22.5% liner rate, 30% flyball rate, and 47.5% grounder rate in the minors last season. With an ADP of 496 overall and #38 at C - around the likes of Elias Diaz and Jake Rogers - Baldwin is an excellent later-round pick in fantasy leagues given his potential. He's enjoyed a nice spring, batting .333 with 3 RBI, 4 runs scored, and a 5.5% strikeout rate against a 16.5% walk rate through 36 PA.

Rhys Hoskins (1B-MIL) could be a steal in fantasy drafts with a current ADP of 26 at 1B and 243 overall; he's being drafted around the likes of Nathaniel Lowe and Connor Wong, and he has the highest upside of that bunch. His stock is so low because he batted just .214 with 26 dingers, 82 RBI, and 59 runs scored across 517 PA last season - with a wRC+ of 100 - after missing the entire 2023 campaign. Last year, his strikeout rate was a career-worst 29%, but his swinging-strike rate (10%) and contact rate (77%) were both near his career averages. He definitely ran into some poor luck as his Statcast profile was pretty typical for him with 42% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, 88.5 mph average exit velo, and a launch angle of 20.7; the exit velocity was on the low side but all the others were part for the course for Hoskins. Moreover, he's enjoyed an excellent spring as he was batting .310 with 6 dingers, 8 RBI, and 10 runs scored through 34 PA entering Tuesday's action.

Luis Garcia, Jr. (2B-WSH) is being drafted as a top-10 2B in fantasy (#9 2B with an ADP of 129 overall), and rightfully so after he broke out in 2024. Across 528 PA in his age-24 season, Garcia registered a .282 average, 18 dingers, 70 RBI, 58 runs scored, and 22 steals (in 27 tries) with a wRC+ of 111. While he didn't walk much (5.5%), he also didn't fan often (16.5%) while recording an 81% contact rate. Garcia did chase pitches outside the zone a bit (35.5% 0-swing%), but whiffing wasn't an issue (9.5% swinging-strike rate) while his Statcast profile was pretty solid with a 41% hard-hit rate, 8% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 89 mph. A launch angle of 8.2 left him with a 47.5% groundball rate against a 20% liner rate and 32.5% flyball rate, to some degree limiting his power output. Although Garcia's hit tool is certainly a plus, his power and speed are both pretty average. As a result, it's tough to project a 20-20 campaign. Expect .270/15/15, although a bit more is possible. A top-10 2B ranking seems a bit lofty given that stat line, but he's being drafted around the likes of Xander Bogaerts and Nico Hoerner; I'd take Garcia over those two.

Xavier Edwards (SS-MIA) is a throwback contact-speed player, and that showed in 2024 as he batted .328 with 1 homer, 26 RBI, 39 runs scored, and 31 steals (in 35 attempts) across 303 PA as a 24 year-old rookie; his 128 wRC+ was solidly above average. He didn't fan a lot (17%) while drawing his fair share of walks (11%), which works well with his wheels. Predictably, the Statcast profile is nothing to write home about (24% hard-hit rate, 2% barrel rate, average exit velocity of 86 mph, and a 6.7 launch angle) as he's largely a slap-hitter who recorded an 84.5% contact rate and showed good discipline at the dish with a 22.5% o-swing%. He's likely to bat leadoff, albeit for the rebuilding Marlins, so his runs-RBI total is likely to come in around 120 or so over a full season. An average north of .300 is difficult to project, but .280+ is very possible while he's liable to swipe 40+ bags over a full campaign. Not bad for a guy currently being drafted as the #14 SS in fantasy with an ADP of 136.

Alec Bohm (3B-PHI) could return to spring training action on Wednesday as his bruised foot is feeling better. That development was a bit disappointing since he has enjoyed a nice spring as he's hitting .344 with 3 homers, 5 RBI, and 10 runs scored over 36 PA. The power output has been especially welcome since he's hit more than 15 homers in a season exactly once since reaching the majors back in 2020 (not that the abbreviated 2020 campaign should count against him) while his career ISO is just .139. In 2024, Bohm's productivity was above average as his wRC+ came in at 115, but his overall line of a .280 average, 15 homers, 97 RBI, 62 runs scored, and 5 steals (a career high!) over 606 PA was underwhelming for a 3B. Sure, he doesn't strike out often (14% in 2024) but he also doesn't walk much (6.5%). Bohm's contact rate was stellar at 85% and his zone contact rate was healthy at 92% while Statcast shows an encouraging profile of a 45% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 90.5 mph. A 9.8 average launch angle was his lowest since 2021 and Bohm's flyball rate came in at just 33% (against 21% liners and 46% grounders). That certainly limited his power output, but it's good to see him getting a bit more lift on his swing in spring training as his groundall rate is currently at 36% after it came in at 46% last season (46.5% career). Given this development, he may be a nice value in last-minute fantasy drafts as his ADP is 146 and he's being drafted #15 at the hot corner.

Brandon Nimmo (OF-NYM) has dealt with a sore right knee during spring training but returned to action on Monday after an injection apparently helped. Soon to be 32, Nimmo is coming off a mixed bag in 2023 as his .224 average was low while his 15 stolen bags were a career high and his 23 dingers were the second most of his career; he also drove in 90 runs and scored 88 while registering a 109 wRC+ in 663 PA. Once seemingly prone to the injury bug, Nimmo has recorded at least 663 PA in the last three seasons. His strikeout rate was up to 24% last season (no higher than 21.5% the previous four campaigns) but he continued to walk at a high rate (11.5%). His contact rate was down a bit to 79% (after being north of 80% the previous three seasons) as his swinging-strike rate was up to 9.5% (was no higher than 8% since 2021). But his quality of contact remained strong as Statcast shows a 47.5% hard-hit rate, 9% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 92 mph with an average launch angle of 11.2 that generated a 20% liner rate, 38% flyball rate, and 42% grounder rate. His .267 BABIP last season (.322 career) therefore seems unlucky more than anything else. Expect an average closer to .250 to go with about 20 homers and 10 steals this season, and he should deliver. Decent for a guy with an overall ADP of 145 and #40 at OF.

Jurickson Profar (OF-ATL) is expected to be ready for Opening Day after suffering an injury that was diagnosed as a bone bruise; reports indicate he could resume spring training action on Thursday. The 32 year-old is coming off his best season in the majors with the Padres, in which he hit .280 with 24 dingers, 85 RBI, 94 runs scored, and 10 steals across a career-high 668 PA; every single one of those figures was a career best, as was his 139 wRC+. His plate discipline was stellar as he registered an 11.5% walk rate against a 15% strikeout rate while logging a 7% swinging-strike rate and 22.5% chase rate. Contact was great as Profar's 84.5% contact rate was a career high even as his Statcast profile was the best of his career with a 44% hard-hit rate, 7% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 91 mph. Profar has always had talent, but it took quite some time for it to all come together. Now he's apparently slotted for a premium spot in the loaded Atlanta lineup, so he should again be an asset if he can stay on the field. He's priced as a #3 OF in fantasy drafts with an overall ADP of 162 and as #44 at his position. Just make sure to keep an eye on the injury news.

Jerar Encarnacion (OF-SF) is an intriguing player for fantasy this season, especially since he's going undrafted in most leagues with an ADP of 516 and, where taken, is the #132 OF off the board. He saw limited action as a 26 year-old with the Giants last season, recording a .248 average to go with 5 homers, 19 RBI, and 13 runs scored across just 119 PA. Contact was an issue (28.5% strikeout rate) while he didn't walk often (4%), but his Statcast profile is tantalizing as it shows a 59% hard-hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 95 mph in that modest sample size. Contact is a bit of a concern (74% last season) as he tends to chase (37% o-swing%) and his launch angle of 6.7 did generate a lot of grounders (49%), but his extensive minor-league track record indicates that enough lift to get to a liner rate in the low-20s and 35% or so flyball rate. If he's able to carve out a regular role, a .240 average and 25+ bombs is in the cards.

Reese Olson (SP-DET) seems to be undervalued in fantasy drafts as he currently has an ADP of 276 and is, on average, the 82nd SP off the board. In his sophomore season as a 24 year-old, the righty compiled a respectable 3.53 ERA, 8.1 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 across 112.1 IP, with a 3.72 xFIP indicating that he was about as solid as the surface numbers indicated. His 12.5% swinging-strike rate and 73% contact rate both indicated that his surface numbers could improve, and Olson possesses a diverse repertoire that includes a 94-mph heater (23.5% usage), 94-mph sinker (20.5%), 85-mph slider (28%), 86-mph change (22.5%), and 79% curve (6%). His plus secondaries are his calling card and he seems primed to take a step forward this season. And Olson has been more solid in spring training than his 4.82 ERA suggests, recording a 3.49 xFIP, 9.6 K/9, and 1 BB/9 in 9.1 IP.

Robbie Ray (SP-SF) is a boom/bust proposition in 2025 fantasy drafts as he currently has an ADP of about 157 as he's about the 49th SP off the board on average. The 33 year-old southpaw logged only 34 IP in the majors over the last two seasons as he missed considerable time while recovering from Tommy John surgery and dealing with a strained hamstring. But he was pretty much his old self in limited action last season as the lefty recorded a 4.70 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 4.09 xFIP in 30.2 IP. His control was never great (3.8 BB/9 career) but that's often the last thing to rebound following TJS, so it's encouraging to see that his average fastball velo was over 94 mph in his return to action, right about his career average and a half-tick higher than what he registered over 189 IP with Seattle in 2022. He's looked sharp in spring training as he's compiled a 1.93 ERA, 16.4 K/9, 0 BB/9, and 2.37 xFIP through 9.1 IP.

Bryan Woo (SP-SEA) is coming off a solid sophomore campaign in which he registered a .289 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 1 BB/9, and 3.75 xFIP across 121.1 IP as a 24 year-old. The righty's K/9 was certainly underwhelming compared to the 9.6 he posted in 2023, but his 11.5% swinging-strike rate wasn't bad at all while his average fastball and sinker velo remained steady at about 95 mph. The improved control was a very positive development, as his BB/9 was down from 3.2 in 2023. His Statcast profile, too, remained healthy as the opposition only registered a 35% hard-hit rate, 5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 89 mph against him. Woo definitely has a bit more strikeout ability to unlock, so it would not be surprising to see him push toward a K per inning while maintaining a better-than-average walk rate to go with an ERA in the mid-3s. That's #3 fantasy SP stuff, and that's about his going rate in drafts as his ADP is about 132 while he's, on average, the 39th SP off the board.

Bubba Chandler (SP-PIT) was reassigned to minor-league camp on Thursday after a rough spring training. He reportedly had a shot of making the club's Opening Day roster, so he should make his MLB debut later this season. He threw only 2.1 IP this spring in which he posted a 19.29 ERA, 7.7 K/9, and 15.4 BB/9. The 22 year-old righty is, after all, coming off a strong 2024 campaign in which he registered a 3.08 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.38 xFIP across 119.2 IP in Double-A and Triple-A. Along the way, Chandler registered a 13.5% swinging-strike rate as the opposition's contact rate came in at 72%. At the Triple-A level, opposing hitters struggled to make hard contact against Chandler, as evidenced by a 30.5% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 85.5 mph per Statcast. He's a late-round flier in fantasy now with an ADP of 305 overall and #91 at SP that seems likely to dip given the recent news of his demotion; feel free to draft and stash if you have the roster flexibility.

Chase Dollander (SP-COL) could still break camp with the Rockies as his most recent spring training appearance was solid (4 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K against the Athletics). The 23 year-old righty is coming off of a productive 2024 campaign in which he compiled a 2.59 ERA, 12.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 3.24 xFIP across 118 IP at the High-A and Double-A levels. It was his first professional season and he's yet to throw a pitch in Triple-A yet the club is seriously considering him for the Opening Day rotation. Dollander's control is a work in progress, but the strikeout ability has been on display as he registered a 16.5% swinging-strike rate in the minors last season to go with a 67.5% contact rate. He is flyball oriented (just a 36.5% grounder rate in the minors last year), which is a concern since he'll call Coors his home park; but he did a good job of minimizing the homers last season (6.5% HR/FB and 0.53 HR/9). With an ADP of 203 at SP and 630 overall, he's a late-round fantasy pick that could pay dividends for a minimal investment on draft day.

A.J. Smith-Shawver (SP-ATL) is still in the running for a rotation spot with Atlanta even though Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes - both of whom are out of minor league options - are the presumptive favorites to secure the final two spots in the rotation. Through 12 IP so far in spring training, he's compiled a 3.75 ERA, 13.5 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 with a 3.76 xFIP. Smith-Shawver might have disappointed so far in his limited MLB action to date (3.64 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 5.63 xFIP in just 29.2 IP), but he's now just 22 years old and has the stuff to be a fantasy contributor. In Triple-A last season, he recorded a 4.86 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and 4.61 xFIP over 87 IP. The control is clearly a concern, but Smith-Shawver missed bats (14% swinging-strike rate) while limiting the opposition to a 70.5% contact rate. He appears to be altering his pitch mix a bit during spring training as he's deployed his 96-mph heater at a 54% clip, his 77-mph curve at a 20.5% rate, and his 86-mph change at a 25.5% rate while not using his slider (13% last season) at all. The slider rated as the worst of his offerings, with his fastball-change his bread and butter while the curve is a solid third offering. Keep an eye on the news to see if he's able to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster, but even if he doesn't he should join the big club before too long. His price tag on draft day is quite reasonable as his ADP is 535 overall while he's outside of the top 160 at SP.

Garrett Crochet (SP-BOS) will start on Opening Day against the Rangers. The 25 year-old lefty has put together a strong spring training with his new club as he's fired 10.1 IP in which he's surrendered just one run while recording an 18.3 K/9, albeit with a 5.2 BB/9. Crochet enjoyed a breakout 2024 campaign with the White Sox in which he registered a 3.58 ERA, 12.9 K/9, 2 BB/9, and 2.38 xFIP over 146 IP as he was limited to short starts during the last couple months of the season. Although his ERA suffered from some poor luck in the form of a .318 BABIP and 14.5% HR/FB, Crochet was truly elite as he primarily employed his 97-mph heater (53.5% usage) and 92-mph cutter (28.5%) while mixing in his 84-mph slider (10%), 91-mph change (6%), and 98-mph sinker (2%). His 16% swinging-strike rate was stellar while the opposition registered just a 69.5% contact rate against him. His Statcast profile was a mixed bag with a 39% hard-hit rate, 9% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 88.5 mph, but opposing hitters struggled to get the bat on the ball. With an ADP of 36 overall and 7 at SP, he's being drafted like an ace and he should be one.