Julio Rodriguez
Julio had a down year in 2024, as he slashed only .273/.325/.409 compared to his line of .275/.333/.485 in 2023. He homered 32 times in 2023 and only 20 times in 2024, which is why the slugging percentage was cut by nearly 80 points. Luckily, there are plenty of reasons ot be optimistic about Julio in 2025, and the basis for that is that his underlying markers were barely changed between 2023 and 2024. His chase rate remained parked at 37% between both years and his whiff rate only increased 2.6%. We actually saw a career low in GB% at 44.6 and career high in FB% at 26.2. His xwOBA and xwOBACON were nearly identical between the two years as well. The main reason Julio hit so few homers was due to his performance against non-fastballs. He hit 18 homers against non-fastballs in 2023 and only 7 in 2024. The usage percentage that he saw was also unchanged, however. His xwOBA against breaking stuff dipped from .348 to .307 and his EV dipped from 92.2 to 88.2. His whiff rate against breaking stuff made a small jump from 35.5% to 38%, which isn't enough to warrant a complete meltdown in performance against the pitch. It must be the case that Julio's swing decision against breaking stuff got him in trouble, which feels like something that can be adjusted with the help of a good analytics team. You can safely draft Julio in the second round.
Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Vlad Jr. has had an up and down career, albeit that up and down is alternating between great and elite. 2024 was one of those elite years that justifies his ranking long ago as a generational prospect. Vlad Jr. slashed .323/.396/.544. The average was a career high, and the OBP and SLG were just a touch behind his monster 2021. The career high average was driven by a career high LA Sweet-Spot of 35.1%, good for 62nd Percentile. Vlad has traditionally struggled to maintain a consistent average to high variability in his launch angle. His famous 2021 season only put him in 50th Percentile in that category, and that's why some fantasy managers are absolutely enamored and others are soured. There is nothing wrong with him, besides a small swing plane issue, this is just the nature of the beast. In fact, Vlad was terrible by this metric in 2022, coming in at just 5th Percentile in the bigs, yet still posted 32 homers and a .480 slugging. The exit velos are top of the class, and they've always been, but if Vlad Jr. has truly improved his ability to minimize his launch angle standard deviation...watch out.
Tarik Skubal
Skubal hinted at his monstrous 2024 by posting 80 strong innings of 2.80 ball in 2023. This is a pitcher that pretty much lacks flaws. Skubal throws hard (96.8), and you can round up with him being a lefty. He is a chase (77th Percentile) and whiff (90th Percentile) collector that also throws loads of strikes 4.6 BB%. He also gets tons of groundballs (46.4%, 72nd Percentile). Don't overthink it. If you really want one pitcher in the first two rounds, it's him or Paul Skenes.
Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez has been one of the most consistent hitters the past four seasons, hitting over 31 homers in each season, driving in 97 or more in three and scoring 88 or more in three. He's also batted over .290 three years running. It's safe to say what you see is what you;re going to get, and that thing you're getting is a great thing. However, I'm more concerned about his team. The Astros are projected to score 4.60 runs per game in 2025, right in line with their 4.60 rate in 2024 and 4.58 rate in 2022. They were at 5.10 in 2024. Alvarez's 88 runs and 88 RBI's feel a little light for someone that you're going to have to pay for, and based on projections, he has a questionable chance to go 90/90. Factor in the positional restriction, and I have a hard time reaching for him in the early second, and think he comfortably belongs as one of the safest bats in the back of the second.
Jackson Merrill
The runner up NL Rookie of the Year took the league by storm with his timely hits and stellar centerfield defense. He finished the year slashing .292/.326/.500 thanks to a strong second half that saw him post a .945 OPS. I absolutely believe Merrill will repeat, and even take a step forward in 2025. Merrill's quality of contact is already elite, as his .372 xwOBA and 39.6% La Sweet Spot both came in at 94th Percentile. His biggest flaw is that he didn't walk much, just 4.9%, and that won't cut it in points or OBP leagues. Luckily, Merrill doesn't whiff much (20.5%) and chases a ton (34.4%). His zone contact was 3.8% above big league average, but his chase contact was also 6.4% above average, so his ability to make contact in general is solid. Since he has inherent contact skills, reeling in the approach just a hair would work wonders for the walk rate, and maybe even quality of contact. You can safely draft Merrill at any point in the third round, and no doubt late second if you're not in a points or OBP league.
Manny Machado
Machado's 2024 was largely similar to his 2023, with the exception of a bump in SB from 3 to 11. He clearly benefited from the more runner-friendly environment, as his 15th Percentile sprint speed doesn't inspire any confidence moving forward. Machado was on pace for a down year until he posted a .543 SLG in the second half. His 92.5 EV is driven by 93rd Percentile bat speed, and while his 12.7 LA was a career low, his 33.8 LA Sweet-Spot was right in line with his career average. I see no reason to believe that Machado won't be the same player in 2025, with the exception that I wouldn't count on those 11 steals.
Chris Sale
After taking a multi-year hiatus from being an absolute star, Sale bounced back in 2024 and looked like his Cy Young self, ultimately winning the award for the first time in his career after 7 consecutive top-10 finishes from 2012-2018. Sale's 32.1 K% was his highest since 2019, and was actually just a tad above his career high. He was a monster in the whiff (31%) and chase (33.5%) categories, so there's no reason to believe the strikeouts are going away soon. He throws tons of strikes (5.6%) and gets tons of groundballs (46%). His .351 xwOBACON was second lowest of his career. I see no reason of any kind as to why we shouldn't consider him to be an ace. Moreover, the Braves should once again be a solid offensive lineup. I love him at his early round 4 ADP.
Cole Ragans
Ragans had an excellent second half in 2023, which made him a sleeper pick in 2024 drafts. For those that took the gamble, he more than paid off his ADP and turned into an ace for Kansas City. Ragans punched out 29.3% of batters while only walking 8.8%. His quality of contact against is actually fairly pedestrian. His 15.2 LA is a touch high and his 35.4% Hard Hit rate is 76th Percentile. Ragans is an ace by definition, but at this mid 4th round ADP, that is really really rich for a pitcher that is "great" but not excellent. The traits are really good, just not elite. That being said, I'm not out on him, I just don't believe he's the type of guy whose ERA will start with a 2, and xERA (3.31) and xFIP (3.46) agree. He will have to fall to me a round later to become a value.
Oneil Cruz
Cruz has out of this world exit velocities, hitting the ball over 120 multiple times. His .462 xwOBACON is off the charts. The quality of contact is literally undebatable, the issue is that Cruz is both a free swinger and has contact issues. He whiffed at a 34.1% clip, good for 5th Percentile. His 31.7% chase rate is good for 27th Percentile. Yikes. Luckily, his chase contact is 9.7% below big league average, so the quality of contact isn't suffering in that sense. His zone swing is a touch low, 4% below average and his zone contact is 6% below average. This is a pure contact issue, and at 26 years old, there is no guarantee that is going away. He has not improved this problem at all in four years. Count him in for 20/20, but don't be surprised if there are some ebbs and flows with batting average. He is an ultra risky play in points leagues, and whose ADP will have to be mightily knocked down in those formats.
Brent Rooker
Rooker was an upside play late in drafts last year and boy did that pay off. After slashing .246/.329/.488 in 2023, those numbers saw heavy jumps to .293/.365/.562 in 2024. The quality of contact is one of the strongest in the bigs, as he posted a .510 xwOBACON and .380 xwOBA. xBA (.266) and BABIP (.362) think the batting average is a bit inflated and I would agree. WE rarely see players strike out at 28.8% and whiff at 34.1% (5th Percentile) hit this high for an average. Luckily, Rooker does the Isaac Paredes thing where his Pull Air % (23.6, compared to 16.6 MLB Average) allows him to outplay his expected metrics by a margin. I still don;t think he will bat .293 again. Luckily the 9.6 BB% gives him more stability compared to the like of Oneil Cruz. That being said, don't draft Rooker as a "safe" or "floor" play. Understand that there is risk here in the AVG and OBP department, although I do feel good about the homers continuing to arrive in groups of at least 30.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yamamoto had a strong first season in the States, posting a 3.44 xERA and 2.86 xFIP. The discrepancy is based on xERA being driven by quality of contact against. While Yamamoto doesn't walk many (6%) and strikes out plenty (28.5%), he did allow a Hard Hit rate of 41.3% (27th Percentile). Luckily, he's a groundball guy (48.3%) who posted an 8.4% LA against, so that quality of contact has limited upside. This is the context in which xERA and xFIP would disagree with each other. Yamamoto has slight fastball issues, only getting whiff on the pitch at 17.6%, well behind his other pitches. If he can adjust his usage to the splitter and curveball slightly more, we could see better results. I view Yamamoto as a solid floor, solid upside play who will be reliable and plays for a good team.
Michael King
King was ultra reliable in his first full season as a starter, making thirty starter and throwing 173.2 innings. He posted a healthy 27.7 K% and 8.7 BB%. His ability to limit hard contact was incredible, as he surrendered only a 30.3% Hard Hit rate and 85.7 EV against. The most impressive thing about King is how well his Sinker played. It had only a .308 xwOBA against and .225 xBA. While it doesn't get whiffs, which isn't atypical for a Sinker, it does play much better than his Four Seam. King has an all-around healthy profile with a deep pitch mix, and one that he certainly mixes well with. xFIP (3.50) and xERA (3.59) don't like him that much, but he is a super safe bet not to blow up and to provide solid value on a good team.
Josh Hader
Hader has been a roller coaster for fantasy managers recently. His ERA the last couples years are 1.23, 5.22, 1.28, and 3.80. Hader's xFIP those years are 2.35, 2.94, 3.52, and 2.93. Posting a 5.22 ERA with a 2.94 xFIP in one year and a 1.28 ERA with a 3.52 xFIP the next year is evil villain stuff. He is clearly hard to predict, but let's try to do it anyway. Hader is still widely tough to hit, sitting at 100th Percentile in whiff rate (40.5%) and 92nd Percentile in Chase rate (33.4%). He also only walks guys at 9%, a very reasonable rate for a closer. The only way to have that intensity of stuff with that moderate of a walk rate is via insanely bad luck or just making occasional really big mistakes in the zone. Unfortunately for Hader he lacks a groundball offering. His 21.2 LA last year is sky high. He has a 38.1 FB% against and 23.8 Pull Air %. Both are sky high, no pun intended. He posted his highest Home Run% (4.3) since 2019. You guessed it, that rate is well above average. Hader's good and bad years literally come down to an isolated group of in-zone pitches that either get hit for homers are fall for warning track flyouts. This is the nature of this player.
Mason Miller
Miller might have some of the best stuff in the world. He struck out 41.8% of batters, which is literally off the charts, and did so why only walking a league average 8.4% of batters. His .306 xwOBACON is comically low, as is his .150 xBA against and .206 xwOBA. This might be the best pitcher in the world on pure ability alone. Unfortunately, Miller plays for the Athletics, who are not projected to win many games this year. While the new ballpark in Sacramento is supposedly very pitcher friendly, that might make a marginal difference for Miller. He needs his team to win more. Either way, this is the safest reliever in terms of ratios on the entire board.
Royce Lewis
Lewis will once again make a trip to the injured list after pulling his hamstring running out of the box in a spring training game. The injury is supposedly not serious, but also serious enough to warrant an IL stint when we still have a couple weeks of spring training left. I normally don't like to label non-pitchers as injury prone, but Lewis and the IL have spent quite a bit amount of time together. While the former first round pick still has some hype to his name, there are things in the underlying data that I don't like. Lewis has taken 605 plate appearances in the last three seasons, which has resulted in 33 homers and 6 stolen bags. Given the injury history, I don't believe those stolen bases are reliable, especially given his 28th Percentile sprint speed, which has declined every year. Last year he chased at 33.3% and whiffed at 27%. His 87.1 EV was well below average. Lewis falls in the Isaac Paredes category, where his 29.1% Pull Air % is ginormous high, and will surely result in homers. The reliability of this player is just so low, and I worry he is becoming a homer-only corner guy.
