Nolan Schanuel
If you play in a super deep league and find yourself desperate at the Corner Infield spot, consider Schanuel. He had a sneaky good 2024, displaying some of the best discipline and contact skills in all of baseball. His .343 OBP is driven by a 11.2% walk rate, thanks to only whiffing at 14% of the time (96th Percentile) and only chasing 21.5% of the time (91st Percentile). Even though he has 24th Percentile sprint speed, he stole 10 bags last year, and I'd actually project for more as he reportedly has worked hard to get into better condition and may get on base at even better clips in 2025. Schanuel posted a 75th Percentile LA Sweet-Spot % He may have only hit 13 home runs last year, but that is certainly impressive given his only flaw: paltry exit velocities. If Schanuel didn't have 2nd Percentile bat speed, he wouldn't post 7th Percentile exit velocity. Luckily, power is one of the most trainable skills in baseball development, and if Schanuel can do literally anything to improve his bat speed, we're looking at a steal in points and OBP leagues.
Michael Busch
Busch had a productive 2024, slashing .248/.335/.440. I don't want his .217 xBA to scare anyone away, there are still some solid underlying figures that suggest Busch is a very capable hitter. Busch has solid discipline, but somewhat below average contact skills, While he doesn't chase often, he does whiff at a 28.4% clip, good for 28th Percentile. That being said, his contact shape is conducive to consistent homeruns. He pulls the ball in the air at 20.4%, compared to the 16.6% league average. He does a good job of keeping the ball off the ground, doing so just 38.8% of the time compared to 44.4% league average. I also really think Kyle Tucker will greatly contribute to Busch's RBI totals.
Carlos Correa
While Correa hasn't stolen a base in years, he quietly posted one of his stronger offensive seasons in 2024. He slashed .310/.388/.517 across 367 plate appearances. His 16.6 K% marked a career low, and his 17.9 Pull Air% was his best since 2020. His 9.2% barrel rate, 90.3 EV, and .358 xwOBA in 2024 were almost EXACTLY equal to his career average. Essentially, Correa was the same hitter in 2024 as he has been his entire career. The SS25 discount is baking in injury risk, but he played nearly full seasons from 2021 through 2023. The discount is too great at this point.
Taj Bradley
Many analysts may write about Bradley as a breakout candidate but I'll make a case for the bearish side. Bradley's 4.11 ERA last year was deserved as his 4.17 xERA, 4.09 FIP, and 3.62 xFIP are telling us that his average walk rate (8.1%) and above average strikeout rate (26.6%) aren't enough to offset his balloon of a homerun rate (1.43 per 9), which was good for 12th amongst starters with at least 130 innings. His 15.1% HR/FB was 4th under that same condition. He now moves to Steinbrenner field, a place much more vulnerable to homers. Many may cite Bradley's stuff and improvements compared to 2023, but unfortunately, Bradley's inability to produce results even with his stuff across 242 career innings is due to horrific execution. In fact Bradley's Location+ score of 93 was second to last amongst starters with 130 innings last year. Bradley's fastball, his signature pitch, got torched last year to a .391 xwOBA, 92.5 EV, and 22 LA. I'd go as far as to say I'm strictly avoiding Bradley at his SP61 cost.
Matt Chapman
Chapman posted another strong offensive season, hitting exactly 27 homers for the third time in the last four years, even while playing in a tough ballpark for homeruns. Chapman became a marginally different hitter in 2024 compared to his career. He cut his strikeout rate to 24.4%, good for 2.4% below his career average. However, his overall swing percentage remained the same, but his in-zone swing percentage dipped and his chase percentage spiked. To have that happen while striking out less, one would need to significantly cut their whiff rate, and Chapman did just that. He went from 31.1% in 2023 to 23.5% in 2024, good for a career low. It seems to have had a neutral effect on his outcomes, as his quality of contact remained the same (.414 xwOBACON compared to .420 career). His hard hit rate fell from 56.4% to 48.3%. His LA, EV, and barrel % all dipped slightly across the board as well. Posting a similar xwOBACON with slight declines across the board in those stats just means that he did a better job of converting his well-hit balls into actual outcomes. His .293 BABIP was in line with this .295 career rate, so there is no reason to believe those outcomes became better via luck. This is a super long winded way of saying that slight changes we say don't point towards decline in anyways, and I still believe Chapman has an excellent chance of being the same player in 2025.
Willi Castro
The big draw with Castro is his positional versatility. He currently qualifies for 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and CF. That not only makes a difference in fantasy, but real life as well, and should allow Castro to be a solid volume play, as Minnesota can plug and play him just about anywhere on the field. Castro is going to slide down boards on draft day because of unimpressive underlying offensive figures. He lacks bat speed (26th Percentile) and doesn't hit the ball hard often (36.8%, 30th Percentile). Luckily, Castro is still a solid runner who swiped 14 bags last year and 33 the year before. He does shine in the LA Sweet Spot% category, ranking at 90th Percentile. That figure alone gives Castro a chance to continue to hit e]some homers, even if its only 10-15 per season. His 8% walk rate gives him even more value in OBP leagues. The value proposition is a sum of the parts: when you consider the volume, OBP, and 15/15 potential, this is a sneaky value play at who can be found pretty late.
Jo Adell
A once promising young prospect, Adell finally put together a solid season for the Angels, swatting 20 homers and stealing 15 bags. Unfortunately, I'm still going to stay as far away from him as possible. Adell mightily struggles with contact, punching out at 27.9%, with no help provided by his 29.8% Whiff rate. Adell does have premium bat speed (98th Percentile) and hits the ball hard (44.7%). Unfortunately he combines that hard hit rate with a 14th Percentile LA Sweet Spot and .224 xBA. This tells us that Adell has a huge spread in his launch angles, and that his non home-run quality of contact is likely very poor. This is not a recipe for consistency. He will also play in a lineup that might struggle to generate offense. Pass.
Dustin May
May is known for absolutely lights out stuff, but he missed all of 2024, so we haven't seen him since 2023. In 2023, his 3.40 xERA and 4.58 xFIP suggested the 2.63 ERA was not deserved. He set a career low in HR/9 (0.19) but also in K/9 (6.38). May also has a catch-22 problem, he plays for the Dodgers. While wins will be aplenty, he needs to earn his spot in what is easily the most competitive roster in all of baseball. He was recently named the fifth starter on this team, but that doesn't include Shohei Ohtani or Clayton Kershaw. I like May as an upside play since he is finally healthy and we'll be able to see that incredible arsenal of his, but draft him with the understanding that this is a fragile asset - as playing time could (surprisingly) become an issue if the others in that rotation ever become healthy. Have a contingency plan in place.
Casey Mize
The former first overall pick has been shaky in his career. He sports a career 4.36 ERA across 291 innings pitched, but also has posted a respectable 6.8% walk rate. The hype for Mize is largely being driven by a good spring. He currently sits at only four hits allowed and five walks in 11.1 scoreless innings. He's struck out 14 in that span. Mize's stuff has simply ticked up this spring, and he looks a lot more like the prospect that was so highly regarded in college. The splitter is back to being effective and features sink and run. Mize got groundballs at a 49.6% clip last year, good for 83rd Percentile. If the stuff holds, we'll have a strike throwing starter who gets both grounders and some punchouts. Watch out.
Cade Smith
Smith was nothing short of electric last year, posting a 1.91 ERA across 75.1 innings. I can't get enough of this guy. Smith posted an insane 35.6 K% against only a 5.9 BB%. He also got groundballs at 44.6% (61st Percentile) and whiffs at 30.2% (84th Percentile). xERA (2.55) and xFIP (2.41) agree that this is a force to be reckoned with. If you're worried about his 42.8% hard hit rate against, don't be, it's mostly a product of throwing too many strikes for a reliever and having too high a concentration of fastballs (69.1%). Hitters can sit it, and they'll get lucky every now and then, but as you can tell they mostly miss it. If you're in a Hold+Saves league, target him.
Ben Joyce
Joyce is famous for being one of the hardest throwers ever, and while that is fun to say, it doesn't directly translate to fantasy value. Joyce simply doesn't strike out enough guys as a reliever (23.2%) to justify reaching for him. He lacks the ability to generate chase (25.9%), and his ability to generate whiffs (29.%) is closer to "great" than it is "elite." Joyce is also going to play for a team that might not win much this year. He will greatly struggle in the holds and saves department. I view Joyce as a temporary, midseason pickup if the wheels are coming off the bus in your ratios department.
Connor Wong
Wong is an absolute landmine. Don't be duped by the .280/.333/.425 slash line. Wong feature poor overall impact, posting an abysmal .288 xwOBA and 86.5 EV. He struggled with contact (28.8% Whiff) and has a huge spread of launch angles (15th Percentile LA Sweet Spot%). He has gotten tremendous luck in the HR department thanks to a high Pull Air % of 19.3. Please let someone else draft him.
Nico Hoerner
We know that Hoerner will not provide you much in the homerun department, but in points and OBP leagues, he certainly has a role. Hoerner is an excellent pure hitter, he just lacks impact. His 10.3 K% and 11.9 Whiff% are otherworldly excellent. His 72nd Percentile LA Sweet Spot % is plenty to drive his offensive production, and his .280 xBA agrees. In fact, Hoerner has posted an xBA above .270 every year of his career except 2020. His 90th Percentile sprint speed ensures that we can rely on continued stolen base production. With Kyle Tucker entering the lineup, we can hope for more in the counting stats department. Draft Nico Hoerner with confidence as a high floor player.
Corbin Burnes
Burnes is still excellent, but he doesn't post those elite metrics we used to see back in 2021. With age, he has settled into the "very great" range. That's nothing to knock him, he's still great, obviously, but I think SP7 is right where he belongs. His 23.1 K% marked the lowest since 2018. His 87.5 EV was his highest since 2019, and his 11 LA was the highest of his career. He now has back to back years with both xERA and xFIP each above 3.30. That being said, there are no massive red flags. Just beige ones. Burnes has made at least 32 starts three years running, so you do have to give him a bump for reliability. You can still draft Burnes with tons of confidence, but I have a hard time reaching for him right now.
Logan Webb
Webb was a fan favorite in drafts last year after a strong 2023 that saw him finish second in Cy Young voting. He took a step back in 2024, and there are some concerns that need to be addressed. He posted a .380 xwOBACON against, the highest of his career in a full season, and a 46.2 Hard Hit %, the highest of his career. His 4.31 xERA and 3.28 xFIP suggest that there are some ball in play issues, which can admittedly be volatile, but they are headed in the wrong direction. His 20.5 K% was his lowest in a full season. Webb's stuff has clearly taken a small step back, and I'm concerned that the ball in play data isn't a temporary change.
