Ivan Herrera (C-STL) impressed in his first significant run in the majors last season, registering a .301 average with 5 homers, 27 RBI, 37 runs scored, and 5 stolen bases across 259 PA, with a wRC+ of 127 as a 24 year-old. Reports indicate that he'll share time behind the plate in 2025 with Pedro Pages as Willson Contreras moves to 1B, but it's likely that Herrera sees more playing time. In 2024, his strikeout rate was acceptable at 20.5% while his walk rate was above-average at 9.5% and his contact rate was solid at 78.5% while his swinging-strike rate was 9.5%. Herrera's Statcast profile was solid as well, with a 42% hard-hit rate, 9% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 89.5 mph. While his average launch angle came in at just 9, his batted ball profile included a lot of liners (27%) to go with a few more flyballs (30%) and the balance grounders (43%). If he can carve out a regular role that puts him over 500 PA, his plus hit tool should generate a solid average to go with 12-15 homers and 6-8 steals. Not a top-10 backstop, but certainly in the next tier; that's good value given that he's sitting at around 19in ADP at the position and 283 overall. Keep an eye on reports regarding the nature of the timeshare with Pages and go from there.
Jonathan Aranda (1B-TB) is expected to see regular playing time as the club's DH and backup to 1B Yandy Diaz this season. That's an exciting prospect for the 26 year-old left-handed hitter, who will benefit from the friendly confines of Steinbrenner Park. Aranda has seen limited playing time in the majors since first reaching the bigs in 2022, compiling a .22 average, 10 homers, 33 RBI, and 45 runs scored over 333 PA, with a wRC+ of 99. But he's shown an ability to hit for both average and power in the minors as he logged, for instance, a .339 average, 25 dingers, 81 RBI, and 82 runs scored across just 434 PA with Triple-A Durham in 2023. During that span, he posted a 20% strikeout rate against a 14.5% walk rate while his Statcast profile was spectacular (49% hard-hit rate and average exit velo north of 92 mph). That hard contact has translated to the majors as Aranda has recorded a 45.5% hard-hit rate, 11% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 91 mph in his limited MLB action to date. Given 500+ PA, an average north of .260 to go with 25 homers is quite possible. His current ADP is outside of the top 300 overall and outside of the top 35 at 1B, so there could be nice value here.
Gleyber Torres (2B-DET) joined the Tigers during the offseason, and is expected to serve as the primary 2B while batting in the top half of the lineup. Torres is coming off an age-27 campaign in which he batted .257 with 15 homers, 63 RBI, 80 runs scored, and 4 stolen bases across 665 PA with the Yankees. His 104 wRC+ was the second-lowest of his career as his power dipped significantly thanks to a Statcast profile that featured a 35.5% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 88.5 mph that was among the worst of his career. For the second straight season, his contact rate remained solid (79.5%) as he rarely chased (22.5%) and registered a 9.5% swinging-strike rate. The move from Yankee Stadium to Comerica Park will do him no favors in the power department. Even with an ADP of 19 at 2B and 208 overall, I want no stock in him, especially given his new home park.
Masyn Winn (SS-STL) could be a steal in fantasy drafts this season as his overall ADP is currently 176 while he is, on average, the 19th SS off the board. As a 22 year-old last season, he held his own as he batted .267 with 15 dingers, 57 RBI, 85 runs scored, and 11 stolen bases across 637 PA, with a slightly above average wRC+ of 102. While none of those numbers are super impressive, Winn possesses plus speed and has expressed a desire to swipe more bags; based on his wheels and minor-league track record, 30+ thefts is quite possible if the team does give him the green light more often. Contact was his strong suit at the dish as he logged an 83% contact rate while his swinging-strike rate came in under 8%; he registered a 90.5% contact rate inside the zone. The quality of contact, though, wasn't incredible as his Statcast profile shows a 32.5% hard-hit rate, 3.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 87 mph. On the plus side, his average launch angle of 13.2 generated a balanced profile of a 22% liner rate, 40.5% grounder rate, and 37.5% flyball rate that supports a decent average and some power. There is a little more pop to unlock here, but he's unlikely to turn into a slugger. Expect a .260+ average with 14-18 homers while he said he wants to swipe 30-40 bags this season.
Ceddanne Rafaela (SS/OF-BOS) will reportedly settle into a full-time role at CF this season as the team thinks that lack of defensive home may have hampered his offensive production in 2024. Even so, the then-23 year old flashed some upside at the dish as he recorded a .246 average, 15 homers, 75 RBI, 70 runs scored, and 19 stolen bases across 571 PA. A 79 wRC+ is not good and Rafaela proved allergic to bases on balls as he walked at just a 2.5% clip and fanned at a 26.5% rate. A 70% contact rate, 18.5% swinging-strike rate, and 46.5% o-swing% indicate a poor approach at the plate, which is something that can be addressed, although a 79.5% z-contact% is concerning. The Statcast profile was pretty ho-hum as well, with a 36.5% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, and 86.5 mph average exit velocity. The underlying metrics are, again, concerning, but there's an intriguing power-speed combo here and the potential to unlock more with some maturation at the dish. In his age-24 season, Rafaela could bat .250 with a 20-20 line. Or his average could bottom out and he could be demoted to Triple-A. With that in mind, he's very much a lottery ticket with an overall ADP of 179 while he's usually about the 47th OF off the board in fantasy drafts. He recently missed a few games because of hamstring tightness but reentered the lineup on Saturday.
Eugenio Suarez (3B-ARI) is undervalued with an ADP of 145 overall and the 14th 3B on average being drafted in fantasy leagues. In his age-32 season, Suarez hit .256 with 30 homers, 101 RBI, and 90 runs scored across 640 PA, with a wRC+ of 115. His peak days of 2018-2019 are well behind him, but Suarez is simply an above-average producer (career wRC+ of 112) who consistently makes a lot of hard contact. In 2024, for instance, his Statcast profile included a 42.5% hard-hit rate, 11.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity north of 89 mph, all of which are in line with his career norms. Contact is not a strong suit as that figure was 72.5% last season, but that was his best number in that department since 2019 while his 84.5% zone contact rate was his highest since 2018. Dude will fan a bit (27.5% in 2024, 27% career), but he simply makes a lot of loud contact and his 19.3 launch angle makes the most of it as he registered a 23.5% liner rate and 43.5% flyball rate last season. He might be unexciting at this stage of his career but he's reliably productive.
Seiya Suzuki (OF-CHC) will reportedly spend "a lot" of time at DH this season, which is a good thing since it should help to keep him healthy; while Suzuki hasn't missed a ton of time since joining the majors, he's yet to surpass 600 PA in a season as minor injuries seem to briefly sideline him each season. As a 29 year-old last season, Suzuki registered his most productive season yet (by wRC+, at least, which came in at a career-high 138) as he posted a .283 average, 21 homers, 73 RBI, 75 runs scored, and 16 stolen bases across a career-high 585 PA. His strikeout rate did climb to 27.5% last season, but he also drew more walks (11%) while recording a career-best Statcast profile that included a 49% hard-hit rate, 11.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 91.5 mph, with his career-high launch angle of 16.2 fueling a career-high 47% flyball rate (up from 34.5% in 2023). With three MLB seasons now under his belt, it's pretty clear that Suzuki should be counted on for a solid average (think .275ish), a homer total in the low-20s, and 150ish combined RBI and runs scored. A nice development last season was the 16 steals, which surpassed his total from the previous two campaigns; he did get caught 6 times but it seems that 12+ steals is quite possible again in 2025. With an overall ADP of 86 and an ADP of 26 at his position, he's a solid pick for a #2 OF.
Ian Happ (OF-CHC) is reportedly the top candidate to bat leadoff for the Cubs this season. That's interesting since the 30 year-old put together yet another solidly productive campaign in 2024, registering a .243 average, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 89 runs scored, and 13 steals across 657 PA, with a 122 wRC+. His strikeout rate was up a bit from the previous two years at 25.5%, but he continued to walk a good bit (over 12%); with a .343 career OBP, he's not a bad choice for the leadoff spot. His contact rate (74.5%) and swinging-strike rate (11.5%) were comparable to the previous two seasons while his Statcast profile was among the best of his career with a 45% hard-hit rate, 11.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 91 mph. Happ's production has been fairly consistent since 2021, so it seems that we have a pretty good idea of what he is at this point. A .240-.250 average with 22-25 homers and 10-12 steals with 160+ combined runs and RBI - likely skewed toward the former if he sticks at leadoff - is a good expectation. Not bad for a guy with an ADP of 33 at OF and 117 overall.
Parker Meadows (OF-DET) has recently resumed light baseball activities as he deals with a nerve issue in his right arm; his status for Opening Day is questionable, so keep an eye on the news. Meadows is an intriguing option for fantasy in 2025 after he finished last year on a strong note. Indeed, his overall line of a .244 average, 9 homers, 28 RBI, 39 runs scored, and 9 stolen bags across 298 PA hints at his potential as a 111 wRC+ was above average. But the line is especially impressive when one considers that he was batting just .096 with 2 homers, 3 RBI, 9 runs scored, and 3 steals over 85 PA when he was demoted to Triple-A in early May. After he was recalled in early July, he hit .299 with 7 dingers, 25 RBI, 30 runs scored, and 6 steals across 213 PA the rest of the way. During that span, his strikeout rate was a reasonable 20.5% while he improved his swinging-strike rate (10.5%), raised his contact rate (77.5%), and improved his zone contact rate (88.5%). His Statcast profile was still underwhelming with a 31.5% hard-hit rate, 6.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 87.5 mph, but Meadows hasn't exactly been touted as a slugger, although he has the potential to hit 15-20 bombs a year. In 2025, a 15-20 line is quite doable, and the average could come in north of .250 if he can sustain the reduced strikeout rate. Especially if he's ready to go on Opening Day (or soon after), he'd be a nice value pick as his current ADP is 216 overall and 56 at his position.
Roman Anthony (OF-BOS) is battling for a spot on Boston's Opening Day roster this spring, but has recently missed time while battling an illness. Widely regarded as one of the top prospects in the game, the 20 year-old has little left to prove in the minors after batting .291 with 18 dingers, 65 RBI, 93 runs scored, and 21 steals (in 28 attempts) across 540 PA in Double-A and Triple-A a year ago. He fanned at a 23.5% clip and walked at a 14.5% rate, both of which mirror his minor-league track record; his swinging-strike rate wasn't bad at 8.5% while he chased at only a 22.5% clip during his 164 Triple-A PA. Quality of contact was there during his time with Triple-A, too, as he registered a 45% hard-hit rate. Scouts disagree on his hit tool, which they grade as ranging from slightly below average to above average, although they like his advanced approach and agree that his power is a plus tool while his speed is average to slightly above. Some have likened his situation at the dish to that of Ronald Acuna, Jr. as he broke into the majors, with a pathway to stardom if the hit tool plays enough to maximize his plus raw power. He's no burner, but he's got enough speed to swipe 20+ bags given MLB's family-sized bases and steal-friendly rules. The average is a question mark, but there's 20-20 potential here if he can break camp with the big club, with (much) more certainly possible in the homer department.
David Festa (SP-MIN) is an intriguing arm for fantasy in 2025, especially if he can secure one of the Twins' final rotation spots. He's battling the likes of Chris Paddack in spring training, so keep an eye on how that plays out. The righty made his MLB debut as a 24 year-old last season, registering a 4.90 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.58 xFIP in 64.1 IP. The gap between the ERA and xFIP points to a 68.5% strand rate in particular elevating the former. Festa missed some bats (13% swinging-strike rate) while limiting the opposition's contact rate to 73.5% while his Statcast profile wasn't particularly good or bad (39% hard-hit rate, 8.5% barrel rate, and 89.5 mph average exit velocity). He's added a sinker to his repertoire in an effort to induce more grounders (average launch angle of 15.1 last season with a groundball rate of just 36%), so we'll see if that delivers and helps him secure a spot in the big-league rotation. If so, he could deliver nice value as he currently has an ADP of 337 overall and 102 at SP.
Ian Anderson (SP-ATL) hasn't pitched in the majors since 2022, but has the inside track to win a spot in the rotation, partly because he's out of minor-league options. The righty's career fizzled after a promising start in 2020 (1.95 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 3.45 xFIP in 32.1 IP) but he's still just 26 years old and has the pedigree (he was, after all, the 3rd overall pick in the 2016 amateur draft). Anderson pitched in the minors for Atlanta last season, compiling a 3.44 ERA, 9 K/9, 3.84 BB/9, and 4.05 xFIP across 68 IP, most of them in Triple-A. The control was certainly shaky, but it's encouraging to see that Anderson missed bats (12.5% swinging-strike rate) and limiting the opposition to a 71.5% contact rate. Again, it was the minors, but Anderson also minimized hard contact with a 33.5% hard-hit rate and 86 mph average exit velo. A launch angle of just 5.7 led to a bunch of grounders (52%) and few flyballs (24.5%). He's far from a sure thing to stick in the rotation long-term and do well, but Atlanta seems to believe in him and he's a lottery ticket in fantasy drafts with an ADP of 607 overall and 204 at SP.
Spencer Arrighetti (SP-HOU) was better in 2024 than his 4.53 ERA would suggest. Across 145 IP, the righty also compiled a 4.01 xFIP, 10.6 K/9, and 4 BB/9 as a 24 year old. Yes, the control wasn't good, but Arrighetti's swinging-strike rate was solid at just over 12% while the opposition mustered just a 74% contact rate against him. The Statcast profile was a mixed bag with a 39.5% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 89 mph while an average launch angle of 16.4 translated to a combined 54% flyball and liner rate. The good news is that he showed improvement as the season progressed, for in 9 starts in August and September he logged a 2.72 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.25 xFIP over 53 IP; it was especially encouraging to see the walk rate come down during that stretch. With an ADP of 68 at the SP position and 224 overall, Arrighetti can be a nice value pick as he has the stuff to be a #3 SP for fantasy.
Hunter Brown (SP-HOU) is coming off of a solid sophomore campaign in which he recorded a 3.49 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.47 xFIP in 170 IP. As a 25 year-old, the righty reigned in the homer issue that plagued him in 2023 as his HR/9 went from 1.5 to 0.95 and his HR/FB went from 21% to 12.5%. His Statcast profile includes major clues as to why that happened as his 30.5% hard-hit rate, 4.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 86 mph were all markedly better than the year before (44%, 11%, and 91 mph, respectively). Although Brown's strikeout rate dipped, his swinging-strike rate changed little as it remained an underwhelming 10.5%, but the good news is that while the opposition's contact rate rose slightly from 77% to 78%, hitters made less contact on pitches inside the zone as they registered an 84.5% z-contact% in 2024 after that was 88% in 2023. There were significant changes in Brown's repertoire as he threw his heater less often (down to 34.5% from 46%) while deploying a sinker (18%, up from almost no usage) and adding a change (12.5% usage). His control remains average at best, but Brown misses some bats while limiting hard contact. For fantasy, he's a solid #3ish arm with #2 upside. His current ADP is roughly 110 overall and he's about the 33rd SP picked in fantasy drafts.
Sonny Gray (SP-STL) enjoyed arguably his finest professional season at age 34 a year ago, posting a 3.84 ERA, 11 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 2.82 xFIP across 166.1 IP. The gap between his ERA and xFIP points to a low 68% strand rate (73% career) and high 14% HR/FB (12% career, although xFIP accounts for a 10% rate). Gray's 13.5% swinging-strike rate was a career best while his 72.5% contact rate was one of the lowest of his career as his o-swing% came in north of 30% (at 31.5%) for the first time in his career. His Statcast profile was a mixed bag, though, as his 38% hard-hit rate was par for the course while the oppositions average exit velo of 89.5 mph was a bit higher than usual (88.5 career) and their 9% barrel rate was the highest of his career. Changes to pitch usage likely helps to explain Gray's late-career surge as he deployed his fastball a career-low 24% of the time while using his cutter a career-high 18% of the time and turning away from his curve a bit (down to 14%). With five pitches deployed at a 14% or greater clip, Gray is simply using a diverse repertoire and strong command to keep hitters honest. And it's working. He's reportedly entering camp healthy after ending the regular season on the IL because of right (throwing) forearm flexor tendinitis, so he could be a sneaky value pick in drafts if other managers in your league overlook him because of his age; he currently has an ADP at about 115 overall and is usually about the 36th SP taken in drafts.
