As we come close to the domestic Opening Day on Thursday, rosters and rotations are falling in line. Players are getting slotted into where they will open the season. There are also still some moves. And, of course, not a day goes by without some injury news to raise questions about how playing time will be impacted.
The Tigers were a surprise participant in the 2024 postseason. P Tarik Skubal carried a lot of the load and will be expected to do so again. P Reese Olson posted a 3.53 ERA and will be a key part of the rotation again. P Alex Cobb, who was signed in the offseason, will not see action until he recovers from hip inflammation. The rest of the Detroit rotation will be a mixture of old hands and new faces.
P Jack Flaherty returns to the Tigers this season after they traded him to the Dodgers last year when they thought they were out of the race. Flaherty is projected to provide some solid work coming back to Detroit. His 2025 ERA is projected to be 3.54 and he is projected to record 190 Ks in 170 projected IPs. Flaherty's value has been overlooked somewhat as his FDP of 10.10 is above his 12.10 ADP.
P Casey Mize has nailed down a Tigers' rotation spot. His 2024 season was a return from Tommy John surgery and he posted a 4.49 ERA and 3.94 FIP. Mize lost time due to a hamstring strain. This spring he has looked more like the #1 overall pick he was and who posted a 3.71 ERA. Mize has a miniscule 1.13 ERA in his miniscule Spring Training sample size of 16 IP and has struck out 18 batters. His projected 2025 season has him with a 4.23 ERA and 145 Ks in 160 IPs while notching 11 wins. Mize's 27.07 ADP is a bit overvalued as his FDP is 32.10.
P Jackson Jobe has secured a spot in the Detroit rotation. He has had a decent Spring Training, posting a 3.65 ERA. Mainly, though, Jobe got the job because of his potential. He is the #1 prospect in the Tigers organization and posted a 2.36 ERA and 9.43 K/9 in 91.2 minor league IPs in 2024. Jobe is projected to post a 3.90 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 160 Ks in 164 IPs this season. He is slightly undervalued with a 20.04 ADP and 19.04 FDP.
There were a couple of minor deals that saw players move to new teams, and in once case an old team.
OF Tyler Freeman went from Cleveland to Colorado in a deal that sent Nolan Jones the other way. He will likely fill a similar super utility role as he had with the Guardians. Freeman only hit .209 in 2024 but suffered from a .227 BABIP. Playing home games at Coors Field will probably give him an offensive boost. With a HardHit% of 34.3% and EV of 87.7 last year it might be a stretch to hope for a significant power surge for Freeman. He will probably get more than average playing time while Thairo Estrada is out.
OF Nolan Jones was traded back to the organization he started with, the Guardians. He had been projected to harness the power his metrics showed (44.4% HardHit%) and jump from 3 homers to 17 homers this season, closer to the 20 he slugged in 2023. Moving from Colorado to Cleveland will likely have a negative impact on Jones' offense. Playing time is also a question mark. This looks like a net negative for Jones' fantasy value.
1B Mark Canha was going to exercise his opt-out rights from his minor league contract with the Brewers. Instead he was traded to Kansas City, who will use Canha as a right-handed hitting option off their bench. Canha peaked in 2019 when he slugged 26 homers for the A's and slashed .272/.396/.517. While he has kept putting up solid OBPs his power hasn't approached that level since then. There isn't a sleeper hiding in this move.
Injuries peppered the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues yesterday.
OF Jerar Encarnacion was having a hot spring and pushing himself into sleeper territory. He was slashing .302/.309/547 with 2 homers, 7 doubles, and 14 RBI in 55 Cactus League PAs. This came after Encarnacion hit 5 homers in 119 major league PAs in 2024. He had a 95.0 EV and 58.8% HardHit% with the Giants last year and 94.7 EV and 57.1% HardHit% at AAA Sacramento. Then Encarnacion made a diving catch Friday and fractured a finger in his left hand. His opportunity to show off power with the Giants will not come for a while now.
P Shane McClanahan was almost entirely back from his second Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2024. He was set to be a high-profile member of the Rays' rotation. Then McClanahan left yesterday's start with left triceps tightness. He will have imaging to determine what is going on. Right now he is in limbo and his projected 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are up in the air. McClanahan had an ADP of 11.01 but that is also in limbo as to whether he was worth that early a pick.
1B Vinnie Pasquantino left yesterday's game with a hamstring strain while running out a grounder yesterday. He went with the team to Texas where the Royals will be playing a pair of exhibition games against the Rangers before the games count for real. Pasquantino will undergo imaging today in Arlington to determine the severity of the strain. He lost time at the end of last season with a broken thumb. Fully recovered from that, Pasquantino's projected 2025 output (.275/.332/.484 slash line with 26 homers, 96 RBI, and 83 runs) gave him significant draft value. His FDP is 6.09 and FDP is 10.04. The outcome of Pasquantino's diagnostic tests will determine if that value takes at least an early season hit.
Some positional battles are starting to get resolved. Statistical projections are becoming more important for players who will see increased playing time.
With Alex Bregman ending up with the 3B position 2B Kristian Campbell is putting himself in the position of favorite to open the season at 2B for Boston. Despite a .174 Grapefruit League average, Campbell's pedigree as a prospect has the Red Sox ready to promote him. The 22-year old slashed .330/.439/.558 with 20 homers and 24 steals across 3 minor league levels in 2024. He is projected to slash .257/.330/.426 with 18 homers and 14 steals in 530 ABs at the MLB level in 2025. He is undervalued with a 24.08 ADP and 16.03 FDP.
OF Matt Wallner is projected to continue bashing in 2025. He slugged 13 homers in 220 ABs last year after 14 in 213 ABs in 2023. Wallner's playing time is expected to increase and see him with 216 homers in 442 ABs when the season is done. He is currently undervalued with a 21.11 ADP and 18.05 FDP.
P Merrill Kelly lost much of his 2024 season to injury. As a result, he was not able to repeat his success in 2022 and 2023. With the signing of Corbin Burnes, Kelly will not be in as high-profile a position in the Arizona rotation. His projected 3.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11 wins, and 155 Ks in 176 IPs has value but not at the level he was pre-2024. Kelly's ADP of 25.01 and FDP of 26.07 are close, with his slightly overvalued.
3B Junior Caminero has shown what he can do in a positive direction in a small sample size in the Caribbean Series. In the Grapefruit League this year he has had a disappointing small sample size. Caminero is hitting just .128 but has 3 homers in 41 PAs. His BABIP has been a very unlucky .071. Caminero's projected 2025 numbers agree more with the Caribbean Series being more of a realistic expectation. He is projected to slash .256/.304/.470 with 28 homers, 89 RBI, and 77 runs plus 9 steals. This gives him a 5.05 ADP, ranking him as slightly undervalued compared to his 6.10 ADP.
Then there are the instances where you need to put Spring Training stats in perspective.
OF Aaron Judge hit his first homer of the Spring in the Yankees' 8-7 loss to the Phillies. That is one more homer than the reigning AL MVP hit in the 2024 Grapefruit League. Judge started off with a low average last season (batted .207 through April 30) but had slugged 6 homers by that time and then went on a power tear in May with 14 homers in the month. File this under "Spring training stats don't necessarily mean anything."
P Carlos Carrasco is officially a part of the Yankees' rotation when the 2025 regular season starts. He is boosting hopes with a 1.69 ERA in the Grapefruit League across 16 IPs. However, Carrasco's FIP in that small sample size is 5.57. Also, to add context, Carrasco posted a 2.57 ERA in the 2024 Cactus League before recording a 5.64 ERA during the regular season.
